RE: Most vulnerable 'could get vaccine by Christmas' - UK18 Oct 2020 03:00
China vaccine is a sideshow. People will wait for FDA,EU or WHO clearance
Pfizer says it will seek approval for emergency authorisation third week of November. Moderna and AZ are working to the same timelines. 85% of vaccine trials which reach phase three go on to approval. Odds are in favour of one getting through before end of 2020. If not, then there's still another 8 currently in Phase 3 trails for Q1 2021.
NHS is actively planning for roll out start of December of vulnerable groups/NHS staff (see Triumph and ambush).
Hundreds of millions of of doses already purchased and produced at risk by governments all around the world. Once vulnerable groups vaccinated health systems are unlikely to be overwhelmed, vast majority of healthy people are barely affected by Covid. It will quickly change to a manageable disease.
2nd generation vaccines will likely be even more effective
Governments cannot afford to carry on like this, all of this is obviously a temporary solution. People will not tolerate living like this indefinitely. It is not a natural state to be locked down with liberties suspended. Travel is a large part of many peoples lives.
IAG are not going to call back-to-back RIs. The RI was to ensure liquidity through a prolonged downturn. I'm sure that would cover the remaining of 2020. You'd have to quite damaged to think it didn't.
The worst in terms of SP will be over by December. It will lift on vaccine news. I believe throughout 2021 we will see a slow, gradual return to the lives we knew.
I would credit WAM with the 250p to 80p, it was an impressive call. Happy to admit it was quite insightful, with reasonable arguments. In fact your China comment about reverse engineering tech is also correct, RR spends significant time trying to prevent its intellectual property being stolen, and China is seen as a hostile actor. The car industry also has issues in this area.
But Rick Teddy Paddy and Castle are unreal. I've read arguments such as IIs panic selling/halving SP on Oct 7th,Vaccines only in 14 years, investment amnesia, and now randoms in rugby clubs plucking numbers out of thin air. I will admit the trolling on this board has been mildly irritating, but there's very likely only a month left of it.
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