Member Info for AndItsGone

Certainly not arguing Paul, I enjoy a different view otherwise id never learn anything new. I think we virtually agree anyway. GL to you

I would have to disagree Paul, but my opinion is no more valid than yours.
The government simply does not check if any of the things it says is possible. Look at the world beating test and trace and moonshot for a recent example of many. Boris just says stuff. He doesn't check with any experts to see if it's possible. He's not a details man.
Battery technology is so far off. I'd say for planes it's actually impossible. The battery would need to be collosal. For cars, maybe. But can the grid cope? What is the speed of charging your car? I'm regularly queing at the fuel station when petrol takes seconds to add to the tank. Hydrogen and renewables is not new tech. Its been around for ages. I've been to many presentations where hydrogen fuel cells have been trashed as inefficient and terrorism risks. If large scale renewables was viable we would have done much more, because money is what drives the world. It will cost 5x furloghs to get this out. The green party recognised this and said it would cost a trillion. Does the UK have a trillion? Even if we do emerging markets don't.
And let's just say the tech is possible in that timescale, which I don't believe it is, BP will have be involved in this. I'm not a climate denier, I know we have to and will change but not a chance in that timescale. In my opinion.
To summarise, I'm still feeling quite secure with BP.

Agree with snake eyes i wouldn't be overly concerned with the Carrie Symonds 10 point plan.
Technology doesn't exist yet for this. Planes would need a battery the size of house for long haul travel, national grid struggles to cope with kettles during x factor let alone millions of cars charging.
Hydrogen technology as it stands is inefficient and offers a large terrorism risk.
BP is going to be involved in the role out electric vehicle Charing point networks anyway.
BP are investing in renewables.
Emerging markets will have no interest in expensive renewables unless we subsidise, or forcing their citizens into purchaidng 30-40k electric cars. Wont happen and will allow them to further catch up with europe. All this should offer a level of support to the oil price.
This can be emonstrated by the SP barely moving today in response to Carrie Symonds 10 point plan.

Been a part of this board and RR for the last few months. For every sensible comment over that time there has been some abolute lunatics. Almost breathtakingly dumb. Judging by the comments they have left now.
I think people will probably look back on this in a few years time and think I can't believe we didn't load up on RR IAG etc.
I said I would message you guys on vaccine news,so well done to the guys who held or averaged down this year. You deserve it for iron resolve. Tough year for shareholders but the amount that's rolled in the last couple days made it worth it.
Prof sir John bell said by spring we would be very close to our old normal...let's hope he's right.

Surely that's not the same angry teddy telling everyone to wait for 75p, and we are all bullsh*t candlestick loving rampers??good to have on board I suppose.

Asians markets doing well, American futures flat and ftse futures -0.5%. Had a British lockdown been priced in a certain amount last Wednesday? I've a couple shares I'm keeping an eye on as I thought it could be the last big buying opportunity, but maybe we will only see falls of around 5%,and not the massive discounts of March . Shame. Oil taking a hammering though, shell and BP might be good buys for tomorrow.

Im looking for some advice/opinon. My own personal belief is this is the last big buying opportunity for a number of shares before the vaccine gets announced.
So I have a question on people's buying strategy in general. Do you guys just buy just at 8 at maximum fear? Wait to for an hour or so to see where it's heading? My presumption is there will be a small recovery as the day goes on as people work out the world isn't ending.
I realise that nobody really knows the answer, but your opinions would be helpful for me on when to buy tomorrow

Thanks just starting to feel like gambling now. A trump win Tuesday would likely repair all the damage from the lockdown announcement. But a contested Biden win probably drop it another 10%. God knows which is going to happen.

I suspect the best case for the markets is as trump win. The next best case is a thumping Biden win. The worst case is a narrow Biden win; that trump will contest leaving us in no man's land. As well as a vaccine, a gigantic US stimulus package would be a shot in the arm for the global economy, which is being withheld currently for political reasons

Supposedly month long lockdown being announced Monday. Expect another few percent to come off Monday. It was obvious to most sensible people winter would be bad, but this is relentless, and it's only November.
I do hope my expectation for a vaccine end of November for a vaccine doesn't turn to ashes in my mouth...it's the only thing that turns this disaster around

Tp69 I certainly agree with you IAG is a medium term hold to see any good significant gains. I actually agree with most of the stuff you write, differing only in that I think a vaccine will open up routes more quickly.
Sunsufer sorry to hear you sold at a loss. I really do think a good gap up will occur end of november on vaccine news , hopefully you've not sold at the bottom. And If Matt Hanc*ck can open and close corridors at an hours notice, i think and hope travel protcool will actually be decided upon fairly rapidly, say when a good % of vulnerable population has been vaccinated.
My hope is by spring/summer that can be achieved, it certianly seems to be a reasonable expection going from what fauci,who and whitty/vallance are saying. And at that point restrictions on travel should be very light.

Apologies, should say average age of death is 82

TP7 and WAM I think you might be being overly downbeat on the vaccine. Remember the age of covid 19 death is 82. Children and young adults are basically unaffected.
I mention this because you don't actually need to vaccinate all 70 million people to open up society more, what you need to do is vaccinate the vulnerable. This reduces your timescale.
Bushmaster I actually agree more with you now. I felt yesterday testing has limited use in bringing back normal, but I can see a scenario where a "covid passport" is required for all travel over the next couple years. Possibly even for all large events. So whilst I'd be suprised if we are still doing 500000 tests a day into 2022, there will be a significant continued demand for tests for a long time yet.

Saying a vaccines wont change anything at all in the short/medium term, do you not think travel will rise at all on the vaccine news WAM?

You can't test out of now what is an endemic disease that spreads like wildfire and is asymptomatic in most people. That's why testing will never bring and end to this, especially in the EU and and America (Far East had some success as they are much more complaint). Testing only helps keep a lid on it but will never bring back normal. Treatments and a vaccine are what is needed to bring an end to this.
No idea what happens to covid stocks when the vaccine gets announced, those tests will probably be needed at a low level forever more. But i doubt they will be as valuable. Though people have probably made so much money on companies like novacyt I doubt they even care.

Wam id have to agree with you on that. Not a chance in hell another RI tomorrow being announced. This isn't a bunch of amateurish parish councillors unable to think or plan 3 months ahead, these are audited ftse 100 execs. The RNS even said liquidity strong well into next year, if this wasn't the case they would have said so in the statement last week.
I suppose you cant rule out a RI back end of next year with no improvement. And this is where you have to try and use some judgement. I believe there will be improvement, but there's always a possibility there won't. But without some risk appetite we'd all be better off in a utility share or savings account.

We're many flying to France and Germany anyway in November? I'm not downplaying it, i actually dont know but I don't think there was a corridor.
I do feel a bit glum about the whole thing. The power of doubling, means lockdowns everywhere are inevitable, I had hoped the vaccine may have arrived before the 2nd wave really gripped.
In an attempt to remain positive; thelockdowns being announced, so far as I can tell, are time limited this time around. The liquidity gor IAG remains strong well into next year. And there has been a lot of positive news on vaccines before the end of the year. My trust is still planning for early December to staff.
Never to proud to say I miscalculated, 15% down. But i will not be selling and i still believe these will be ok in the months and years to come.

I wont resort to calling you names Teddy. I've only merely quoted back to you what you wrote. Maybe there will be a 25% drop on Friday and you will finally be right. Good luck to you.

Teddy; "I would suggest that if anyone is considering topping up that they wait two weeks, on the 7th of October, three billion shares will be made available and I can see many investors who are underwater will want to sell and just get out as they will feel cheated by the whole RI fiasco"
Reality; October 7th the share price rose. He genuinely felt a handful of panicked PIs would move the price.

Just in case anyone is considering listening to Teddy, he’s had a cracking October, and still another week and half to go! A selection of his wisdom from this month….
16.10.20 “@Sunsurfer. I have only invested in two shares, IAG and BP”
16.10.20 “Big Oil Is finished, there’s nowt to be made in BP unless it drops to 150p”
12.10.20 “NEX will Prosper in a Covid world which is why 90% of my portfolio is in NEX”
03.10.20 “Money to be made from BP at 200p a share believe me”