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Thanks just starting to feel like gambling now. A trump win Tuesday would likely repair all the damage from the lockdown announcement. But a contested Biden win probably drop it another 10%. God knows which is going to happen.
I suspect the best case for the markets is as trump win. The next best case is a thumping Biden win. The worst case is a narrow Biden win; that trump will contest leaving us in no man's land. As well as a vaccine, a gigantic US stimulus package would be a shot in the arm for the global economy, which is being withheld currently for political reasons
Supposedly month long lockdown being announced Monday. Expect another few percent to come off Monday. It was obvious to most sensible people winter would be bad, but this is relentless, and it's only November.
I do hope my expectation for a vaccine end of November for a vaccine doesn't turn to ashes in my mouth...it's the only thing that turns this disaster around
Tp69 I certainly agree with you IAG is a medium term hold to see any good significant gains. I actually agree with most of the stuff you write, differing only in that I think a vaccine will open up routes more quickly.
Sunsufer sorry to hear you sold at a loss. I really do think a good gap up will occur end of november on vaccine news , hopefully you've not sold at the bottom. And If Matt Hanc*ck can open and close corridors at an hours notice, i think and hope travel protcool will actually be decided upon fairly rapidly, say when a good % of vulnerable population has been vaccinated.
My hope is by spring/summer that can be achieved, it certianly seems to be a reasonable expection going from what fauci,who and whitty/vallance are saying. And at that point restrictions on travel should be very light.
Apologies, should say average age of death is 82
TP7 and WAM I think you might be being overly downbeat on the vaccine. Remember the age of covid 19 death is 82. Children and young adults are basically unaffected.
I mention this because you don't actually need to vaccinate all 70 million people to open up society more, what you need to do is vaccinate the vulnerable. This reduces your timescale.
Bushmaster I actually agree more with you now. I felt yesterday testing has limited use in bringing back normal, but I can see a scenario where a "covid passport" is required for all travel over the next couple years. Possibly even for all large events. So whilst I'd be suprised if we are still doing 500000 tests a day into 2022, there will be a significant continued demand for tests for a long time yet.
Saying a vaccines wont change anything at all in the short/medium term, do you not think travel will rise at all on the vaccine news WAM?
You can't test out of now what is an endemic disease that spreads like wildfire and is asymptomatic in most people. That's why testing will never bring and end to this, especially in the EU and and America (Far East had some success as they are much more complaint). Testing only helps keep a lid on it but will never bring back normal. Treatments and a vaccine are what is needed to bring an end to this.
No idea what happens to covid stocks when the vaccine gets announced, those tests will probably be needed at a low level forever more. But i doubt they will be as valuable. Though people have probably made so much money on companies like novacyt I doubt they even care.
Wam id have to agree with you on that. Not a chance in hell another RI tomorrow being announced. This isn't a bunch of amateurish parish councillors unable to think or plan 3 months ahead, these are audited ftse 100 execs. The RNS even said liquidity strong well into next year, if this wasn't the case they would have said so in the statement last week.
I suppose you cant rule out a RI back end of next year with no improvement. And this is where you have to try and use some judgement. I believe there will be improvement, but there's always a possibility there won't. But without some risk appetite we'd all be better off in a utility share or savings account.
We're many flying to France and Germany anyway in November? I'm not downplaying it, i actually dont know but I don't think there was a corridor.
I do feel a bit glum about the whole thing. The power of doubling, means lockdowns everywhere are inevitable, I had hoped the vaccine may have arrived before the 2nd wave really gripped.
In an attempt to remain positive; thelockdowns being announced, so far as I can tell, are time limited this time around. The liquidity gor IAG remains strong well into next year. And there has been a lot of positive news on vaccines before the end of the year. My trust is still planning for early December to staff.
Never to proud to say I miscalculated, 15% down. But i will not be selling and i still believe these will be ok in the months and years to come.
I wont resort to calling you names Teddy. I've only merely quoted back to you what you wrote. Maybe there will be a 25% drop on Friday and you will finally be right. Good luck to you.
Teddy; "I would suggest that if anyone is considering topping up that they wait two weeks, on the 7th of October, three billion shares will be made available and I can see many investors who are underwater will want to sell and just get out as they will feel cheated by the whole RI fiasco"
Reality; October 7th the share price rose. He genuinely felt a handful of panicked PIs would move the price.
Just in case anyone is considering listening to Teddy, he’s had a cracking October, and still another week and half to go! A selection of his wisdom from this month….
16.10.20 “@Sunsurfer. I have only invested in two shares, IAG and BP”
16.10.20 “Big Oil Is finished, there’s nowt to be made in BP unless it drops to 150p”
12.10.20 “NEX will Prosper in a Covid world which is why 90% of my portfolio is in NEX”
03.10.20 “Money to be made from BP at 200p a share believe me”
Teddy; Could you show me where i said 110p please?
Teddy having a pop at Dean for a 30% increase prediction Friday, when you've got a 25% decrease prediction on for Friday at 75p. Your amnesia struck month of wild ludicrous positions have been lightyears from being correct, I reckon just by luck you must due to get one right teddy. Hopefully its Friday, so I can get the kitchen sink in, although i don't think I'm going to need to.
The RR point was interesting. I remember that Friday and there was pure panic. Warren east waited to long for the RI, unlike IAG who were more proactive, and it caused a number of events that never happened here.
HFs used easts silence to walk it down 10% a day. Multiple negative news stories daily. Many LTHs were selling and then taking short positions to recoup loses, some guys where even doing that at 1.15! The price became totally detached from reality, RR is a world class engineering firm that was priced at 10% of Ocado! Total nonsense.
It created a huge snap rebound, probably aided by the underwriters trading arms piling in, coupled by a massive short squeeze on margins. And now all you read is positive RR news stories!
That will not happen here, and the price is in a relatively stable trading range unlike rolls back then
George don't allow yourself to get wound up. It shouldn't matter what others think, but as it happens I think you are doing well for your age.
I doubt that people moving around multiple 100s of ks spend much time on these boards anyway. If castle genuinely believes we are hitting 50p then theres little chance he's moving that amount of money around as either.
My belief happens to align with yours. I dont think there any significant drops on the near horizon left. IAG should be going up on two accounts; a decent gap up on the vaccine, (now looking for all the world as end of november), then a long slog retrace, as people return to normal.
Barclays has soared today, after crushing city expectations, good for them.
The reason I think it's relevant on this board is WAM predicted 50p for BARC, its now 1.12. It never even got close.
imo WAM has had a reasonably good year, and unlike teddy rick and roger, WAM has been far more coherent. But I think it shows that they can still be light years away from being correct. And I think that holds true for the 50p prediction they have made here.
My take on the situation is that there is two run away trains; one with covid doubling every couple weeks to a probable lockdown, the other is a vaccine offering a more open future. One will crash the market, the other will blow it up to the upside. I just can't tell which will get to the station first.
Though so long as your willing to stay invested for the medium term I really think there's a good upside at this point on IAG and quite a few other cyclicals.
Goldy7 please word more carefully, you raised my hopes of a wall of money coming in on that news
I do think that there's now a risk to being out of this ;at a moments notice a vaccine could be approved, which would give this a significant rise. And now there's no more surprises in terms of liquidity/cash burn with the RNS release, we have been de-risked somewhat. The market has priced this accordingly, to the positive.
When the vaccine is approved (my guess is end of Nov), I will make sure to comment to congratulate all holders, it took quite a bit of courage at times.
Surprised you can manage to get out the house with your memory, you forgot 90% of your portfolio in 4 days. I suppose I feel a little irritated reading nonsense , yes you are correct. Just pointing out to the readers that you cant string an idea together for more than a couple days