Member Info for AndItsGone

Oh Robert I'm suprised to see you write that considering you make so much money trading this. Follow your logic through, the SP would be zero if what you said was true, and everyone was days away from losing half their money.
What's actually happened is the SP has been on an absolute tear along with the FTSE since vaccines were announced. People can see the end of this.

I'm a very amateur PI. However i reckon I could get a job societe generale. They bought a load about 6 weeks ago over a high period. Then dumped all of them a few days after the RNS was announced for a loss on a dip. And now they've bought back in high again. I would presume their will be a small drop here tomorrow as well on the back of Boris tonight. Will probably find they sell again in a couple days for a loss.
They have more money than sense.

No. The vote tomorrow will confirm the RI will take place. You will then have the cut off date set to own shares by, should you wish buy and to participate. This date will probably a couple weeks time. After this date you will have the option to sell your rights, or buy them, again the process normally allows a couple weeks to action. It is only when these rights become tradable that you will see the drop.
Depending on your broker, some allow for currency fluctuations. When I participated in IAG, even though the rights were set at approx 88p (0.92 Euros), Barclays wanted me to have something like 92/3p per share. They refund after the rights, but it wasn't something I was expecting.

You can be as sure of the outcome of the EGM as the sun will rise. All major shareholders have already committed to the RI. Without it the company is bust. I doubt there will be a single shareholder vote against it.The RI discount has already been decided and is 25 shares for every 29 owned, purchasable at approx 0.96p (€1.07).
There's quite a lot of cautioned posts on here which I respect and may well be proved wise. All i will offer in response is waiting for maximum clarity; I.e. the RI finished and vaccines significantly distributed, will unlikely result in particularly good returns.

Hope so. I doubt covid will be history, but I would expect it to be much more manageable by then, and the company to be in a much better place. I do agree AZN approval should cause a decent rise, its so much easier to administer and much cheaper.
I do wonder if the 737 issues reported on Friday might cause some nerves, and drop it back a couple % next week. I'm not at all knowledgeable on the plane, but the last time Tui had issues with it there was a drop.

BioNtech co-founder "Scientifically, it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus variant," Ugur Sahin said.
WHO emergencies chief Mike Ryan said new strains were a normal part of the evolution of a pandemic, and that it was not "out of control.
EU commission wants travel bans lifted.
SP staying strong at this level, even rising today.
They say self praise is no praise but it looks like I was absolutely spot on with what I said yesterday.
Well done all holders, if there are any here, it took a bit of nerve yesterday.

I think there is good reasons to be optimistic about the vaccine efficacy on this new strain and that it is not particularly more virulent, for some of the reasons I have already stated. I think I could add a couple more reasons.
If there was a high probability of vaccine failure to this the stock market would have torn this share to ribbons today, along with half the FTSE and all the major indices. It would render so many businesses unviable including this. As it happens Tui fell 0.98%. People far smarter than me, it would appear, share my view.
The restrictions are imposed by politicians. As this year has shown us, politicians are not particularly bothered by science and history. To be fair, id have done the same as the 40 odd countries today. Block travel to the UK for a few weeks, shows my electorate I’m cautious and protective.
Whilst a detailed timetable is not available, there is actually a vaccine rollout plan. The Health service journal proposes everyone who would like a vaccine, should have been able to have one by April. I do not know if they will meet this but it seems feasible. Even if they don’t hit this, the vulnerable population will have been vaccinated, the diseases has limited effects on young fit adults. You are right to doubt me, but perhaps its worth listening to Professor Sir John Bell who said life should be close to normal by Spring.
You’ll have to forgive me if I’m wrong on this point. But I thought the mcap was based on the number of shares. So, whilst the number of shares may roughly double, if the price of the shares roughly half then the mcap is unaffected and a fair reflection of the company’s value. So long as holders take up their entitlements to avoid dilution, then a doubling of mcap in a couple years, which I think is a possible scenario, holders will still do very well.

Just in case there's any tui holders left on this board heres some positive thoughts.
I think to hold, more or less, 4 pounds today is a sign of reasonable strength at this level. New strain, blanket travel bans, current no deal and a RI. Other than the 737 issues remerging not sure what else is left to thow at this share/company.
The new strain news I suspect will be an over reaction. This happens all the time with rna viruses. The RBD change potentially makes it bind ACE receptors with greater affinity, but that doesn't mean greater virulence. In fact most competitive advantage mutations cause less virulence(no good killing the host). There are several antigens on the S spike that generate neutralizing antibody generating. So far no strain can evade the vaccine, so the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of the vaccine and this not being more severe. I think this is just be cautious for a few days (correctly) from the government.
The blanket travel restrictions I think will be limited. If it's as infectious as they say it will be all over the continent in weeks anyway (already in Holland Italy etc). It will be as you were with the vaccines and travel corridors.
Tui was never geared to a high volume winter this year so this makes little difference. Timeline for vaccines not changed. Roll out will be gangbusters to save the economy. No reason why tui won't have a strong spring/summer as anticipated.
RI will add liquidity and resilience to this point.
Surely there's a brexit deal coming. Surely. Might even see a little 5-10% rise on that (Aware it could also work the other way).
Good luck to anyone still here holding. Really do believe in a couple years the mcap could double from here.

I've heard some similar stories, though admittedly not quite that dramatic. Not sure how id feel if all my years of study were taken from me like that, its something I've not had to endure. Could potentially be quite a dark place so gives perspective. I do hope it comes back, not least so these world class engineers, pilots and crew can start to piece back what they deserve.
Good points made.

Its difficult time for all, but certainly I feel for many in aviation sector. I have many good friends in RR and have seen what has happened. Ironically when I asked, they too felt it wasn't the ideal time, though that was some months ago and pre vaccine. I'm no great Oracle, but I really hope the worst is over, and tried to back that view with some savings. No deal brexit and a large third wave could yet make a fool of me. Thank you and good luck to you.

I work in the NHS if you really must know considering your concern for my employement status. Certainly not as glamourous as your life, which you have kindly shared. A little money set aside for recovery stocks. Mostly it's gone well, and have some confidence it will here to. January will tell who got it right, if it tanks I'll be back to congratulate you.

Haha whoops looks like I did get I right after all

Aspers that is a much more decent response than I was expecting. If I have misinterpreted what i felt was a boastful and way over the top negative posts, then apologies. I do feel like you said this will the SP and RI rates will merge because the did with IAG, which of course.gives you the 0.97p valuation. I of course still think your being overly negative leaving tui bordering insolvent, but we will of course all interpret things differently. Good luck to you.

Apsers said his opions carries more weight because hes a plane driver. That's the relevance. Careful masamira this guys a bully and will post with ranting rambling messages all day.

Good grief lets try. I tried to leave it amicably as possible despite your tidal wave of abuse. I simply said we clearly are miles apart. Yet back you are again today with aggression and jibes. Your clearly a very angry individual and are keen to repeat yesterday's performance. If you need 3.50 this badly, perhaps a soltuion would be to get off this chat board insulting us, calling us crazy and stating this going way down, and be a little more productive with your time

Rather than endure another rambling anting aggressive message i would gave to sunmmarise that we will not agree. You belive people are crazy to invest here and belive it's going to 3.50. I do not.
This is going nowhere. I've set the reasons why, as you have have for your point of view. Come january we will see who was closer. Good luck.

Well aspers that's me and you both doing very well on IAG. With you doing so well, its curious your so bitter about the RI. Sounds like you work very hard being a plane driver. We are lucky you have added to this infatile discussion with your boasts about how great your life is, and this is going to 0.97p, because your a plane driver so you would know.

How many posts now after you annoucned no more? Shows your word, just like threats, insults calculations and scaremongering, are utterly meaningless

You felt a strong convitction to call people crazy to buy here today (please both look up the deifntion of insult and crazy). 1. Your deifntion of crazy is highly suspect particle as you both caim to pick up 10% profit at RI, and at 3.50 you are no longer crazy 2. Your constant need to throw insults in your subsequent long rambling posts (which i doubt anyone actually finishes) show you to be a highly emotional person, and investing is unlikely to be a good use of your time. I wonder if you when your not trolling boards you spent much of your time shouting at clouds

Masimara dont bother mate. He says he doesn't insult people, then rants over about 10 pages with 50 odd insults (ironically another inconsistency). Hes lost it and everyone who has the patience to read his nonsense can see it.