Member Info for alwayswrong

Hi all.. There was a singular uncrossed trade in excess of 1.4 million shares after close on Friday evening.. Can anybody detect if this is a buy or a sell as this is 4 or 5 times the normal daily volume.
If a buy, it could be II and or JD increasing their position or shorters offloading their positions which is all promising, but if its a sale it could be IIs reducing their positions or shorters increasing their positions which is worrying..
Does anybody know which?
Fireworks could fly on Monday or is this just an anomaly with the system or an agreed buy and sell at £5.50 between institutions?

Ji5006... Thanks for the link which I had already read.. Now imagine Saga as a modern day Freddie Laker but with huge boats instead of planes.. The cruise ships market is dominated by three or four companies who could easily put Saga out of business by heavy discounting on the Saga routes just as BA did with Freddy Laker.. Put him out of business trying to compete because of his huge fixed cost base, just as Saga will have.. All that debt.. But as always d.y.o.r

The director buys could be share options or bonuses or other form of remuneration plan.. This time last year the share price was over £20 nearly FIVE times higher than the then net asset value of £4.50 per share, now despite all bad news the net asset value per share is actually £5 per share so the shares are currently trading at a 20% discount to their net asset book value.. Could still go lower but in the fullness of time the share price should go much higher, maybe triggered by a take over bid but in the mean time we all just have to be patient... 6 months isn't a long time in a share prices history but all the same, a lot can happen in 6 months to a year..

Yes Ironic, a huge bargain for takeovers if only for the in place infrastructure alone.. I too hunt down bargain shares and invest heavily but very exposed with this one due to earlier purchase, but Superdry has no debt,is still profitable, all bad news now in the public domain and its going ex div next week which tends to over boost the share price. Given that only 82 million shares in circulation then rapid moves upward could be on the cards..

No, haven't started shopping, being a bloke there is loads of time left for that... Christmas Eve is on a Monday so that's when I will do it.. Thanks about your comments Ironic, I will breathe a little easy.. I have a lot riding on this share and bought in at £7.45 but bought in again at £3.86..Their net assets exceed their market value which is very rare.. Either a huge bargain or a value trap..

.. Is the advert on their website for all their clothing this Christmas... I thought the sales usually took place after Christmas, they are clearly offloading all their surplus winter stocks that they didn't sell during the peak trading months.. I am a supporter of Superdry but this doesn't bode well for future margins which have already been hit.. Is all this clothing being sold off at a loss.?

Volcano.. You missed out the elephant in the room... Take a look at the final sentence of note 12 in the interim accounts which were released on 31st July.. It reveals that capital commitments made but not yet recorded in the Balance sheet relating to the purchase of the boats amount to £562 million.. When this hits the Balance Sheet their total net debt will exceed £1 billion..
Coca Cola bought a self contained branded coffee shop chain . They didn't buy a coffee plantation and try to sell the coffee beans.. It isn't the same.. But as always dyor..

Hi Sandhopper.. Don't waste your time reasoning with Ji5006, I had to give up.
I used to like Saga until they decided to burden the Balance Sheet with over £1 billion of debt once the cruise ships which they didn't need are delivered.. In my view, a major strategic error.. They are a company who sell insurance and holidays, not a cruise ship operator which requires masses of capital and expertise which they don't have... I am afraid for me that this became a share to avoid but as always d.y.o.r.ex was f

But yes - at the end of the day mine is still only an opinion and I only know what is already in the public domain along with everyone else and I do read everyone else's opinions and hate it when a ghastly lay persons comes up with something that I haven't thought of and as always dyor... No offence Ji...

Ji- Yes of course we all have an opinion but I offered you a qualified opinion because I am a qualified accountant and can read Balance Sheets.. If you wife had a gynaecogical problem would you want her to see a 'qualified' gynaecologist or would you be content for her to be seen by an amateur gynaecology enthusiast because that is the difference.. Next time a qualified person offers you an opinion don't ridicule it like you did before. The 'always wrong' username relates not to me as you no doubt assumed but to the price of a share with regards to its fundamental value.. I buy the share when it's significantly undervalued against its fundamental value and sell it when it's overvalued against its fundamental value..

Well hello Ji5006... Remember me... Please see my post back in June, where I predicted an autumn price of £1.10 for this share to coincide with a wider fall in the stock market.. I advised back then to sell out at £1.28 and get back in in the autumn when it fell back to £1.10...problem as I said back then was all the debt they got into to satisfy the CEOs liking for big ships.. They are essentially an insurance provider who as a sideline took commissions on booking cruise... They are NOT a cruise line operator and an iceberg collision just waiting to happen.. I am now not still not going anywhere near because the latest updates haven't provided any reassurance that they are any better equipped for the future and massive capex committed which will lumber them with massive amounts of debt.. I am staying clear but as ever DYOR..

Raxfactor.....My downward target of 1.10 by the autumn was to coincide with my view that the wider stock market would drop by a similar margin by the autumn before recovering and taking off.. Nothing has happened since to change this view and my concerns about their future debt levels still remain.. By and hold forever is never a sensible long term strategy... You buy when share is undervalued and sell when it's over valued . I will buy here in the autumn if its undervalued enough ie around 1.10 and sell when its around 1.70 to 1.80ish hopefully before summer next year but as others around here like to point out... What the hell do I know.. so as always DYOR..

Well it has started its descent down just as I said it would.. Should have got out while you could.. This is headed further down... Too much debt with the new debt for the boats.. I will return at £1.10 for the bounce back up... Will obviously take a scenic route to get there but we are talking before the autumn ends.

Agreed but undercapitalised compared to peers.. A 1 for 3 rights issue would remove all debt and reset funding base. Controlled expansion and new debt could then recommence. This would significantly reduce the risks surrounding this share..

Well I bought in this morning but at £6.40 the price just shot up first thing... Anyway sitting on a nice profit for one day at least.. Doesn't always work out that way.

My advice is to get out quick based solely on the fact that nearly 18 per cent of these shares have been shorted.. This company is one profit warning away from a 50 p share price in my view but as always dyor

I am a potential new investor. This looks very attractive at £6.25 with a guaranteed dividend of over 20p next month or am I missing something? Debt looks staggeringly high though... Any views anyone?

Hi JI5006.. Thanks as always for your comments.. They were very astute.. I have only commented on Saga on this board and the reason for that is that I invested a large amount in the immediate aftermath of the 6 December profit warning and have since examined much more closely their accounts and press releases and for obvious reasons... I have shared with you all my thoughts as a substantial investor and as one person wrote I have been very clear and transparent in that. I have also made contributions on the ADVFN Chat board last year re Carillon where I urged fellow investors to get out at £2.05 a share after reading their annual accounts where they increased THE dividend and their own bonuses without drawing attention to the huge pension deficit which had doubled. I was ridiculed by the likes of Arsenal58 on that board too. Shares in Carillon were suspended at 14 pence you can check out my posts there under the name of "Candid investor" I have nothing to hide... I make my fair share of mistakes too so as usual DYOR..

Maestro.. Thanks for your more substantive post.. When I researched the cruises market I discovered that the majority of cruise goers are Western Europe and America which is now a saturated market and that lots of Cruise operators have gone bust or taken over by the big 3 who between them have over 80 per cent of the market . Just look at the entry costs £600 million!! That on top of current debt of of £430 million... That will bring total debt to £1 billion. The Vultutre Capitalists only left debt of £700 million after they had fed from the trough...!! I keep thinking there is something I haven't read or have misunderstood but I used to analyse Balance Sheets for an American company for a living and even after having a brain hemorrhage and now suffering epilepsy the red flags are still flying here for me... Of course the debt won't hit the balance sheet for another couple of years so in that time the share price could so easily hit £1.80 so I will reenter at around £1.10 later in the year and take that risk . I will forgo the 6p dividend on this occasion. Jamesroo...the fivetimes net of outgoings....means 5 times of net profit... Or operating outgoings.. not capital outgoings... A ship only last 30 years..so the depreciation charge alone will be £20 million per year before the hiring of one person or the cooking of one meal or the repainting of one room.. Saga are an insurance company not a cruise operator and this is a major mistake in my view but yes time will tell. As always DYOR.. There is one caveat.. Chinese Market for cruise tourists likely to take off... Could capitalise on that by entering the market early and host Chinese speaking tours..

vxrandall... Well if I was going to do what you suggest I don't think I would do it on this board which has too many people like arsenal58