Member Info for alwayswrong

Comeonvog...I absolutely agree with you about this but the elephant in the room here is the debt they are burdened with...if their name has been permanently tarnished by what has happened , them they may get the situation where they don't win any new contracts..and that debt still has to be repaid..also they may possibly have expanded too much and too soon for the liquidity they hold..

Don't rule out a rights issue if loan covenants are broken for whatever reason..

Boom 123....the NAV of the NMC is
1... Plus £6.68 including intangible assets
2... Minus £1.03 excluding tangible assets
Intangible assets are things you can't kick ...such as intellectual property rights, paying much more for business than their assets are worth , or a deemed value of the brand ...i.e. NMC has a brand value just like Coca Cola does....yes their intangible assets are probably way over stated, which is probably what the MW report is implying...having a negative value ignoring intangible assets isn't in itself unusual...eg most software companies operate like that due to their competitive advantage produced by their exclusive software...it should, however, always be viewed with caution...does the brand name NMC have a positive brand value anymore ..incidentally the negative net asset value is due to the significant debt that the company is ladened with...
Not positive I know , but the stability and predictability of the profits does bring hope , and the company dividends are covered 5 times by earnings...with this they should focus on reducing debt , NOT share buybacks which are a total waste of money in situations like this when the share price continues its freefall..

There is a lot of nonsense being posted on this board about increasing short positions...there is an official site which meticulously reports all of these and at the moment there is only 2.26 % of the total amount of shares issued being shorted...AQR Capital Management is shorting 1.57 % of the stock and P Squared Asset management 0.69 %. Both of these companies have reduced their short positions by more than a third in the past month... Shorts were at 5.53 % at the end of November, so the reductions in share price is due to longs selling rather than shorts increasing...once the panic stops , it will find its new equilibrium price at a higher level than it currently is..
The two doubts remain...
1...The validity or otherwise of the Muddy Waters report which is mere speculation.
2..The actual amount of debt shown on the Balance Sheet which real and in all honesty is very high for the profits being earned...the PE ratio is improving though more and more as the share price free falls..
I am a qualified accountant with an average stake of £8.50 so have a vested interest in where the share price goes from here but based on published information I do think the rapid fall in the share price is somewhat overdone , unless of course further negative information is in existence which hasn't yet been published...DYOR, ATB

Ok..I broke one of my golden rules...I got in late last night thinking I bagged a bargain at £9.00. Just now I avaeraged down at £8.00 to get overall average of £8.50..i think it has bounced of a low of £7.68 and wont go below that. But then I am always wrong , or usually am...think I should switch off my phone and come back in a week or so..

Thanks Hawfinch ..will do..any opinions on this share right now ?

I agree Hawfinch...it was an amteur article ..if investors had taken his advice and invested in Ted Baker when he made the recommendation, they would have lost a lot of money. .the article only gave them his explanation of why he lost their money...he has even changed the design of his spreadsheet on the back of this loss..that isn't a ringing endorsement for the robustness of his original spreadsheet. No doubt the design of his new spreadsheet will not capture other shares that do well but may again capture other selections of his that also fail...
He has tried to use a spreadsheet of fundamental ratios to predict future share prices, whereas shareholders do that themselves by their reactions to events ..in the short term share prices behave like voting machines, whereas in the long term they become weighing machines...do your own research...read other research yes but then make your own decision..
Coming to Ted Baker, I agree that the share price is ridiculously low but that is because the debts look too high and growing..this has to be addressed before the share becomes popular again
Having said all that, I have approached the sidelines of this share only yesterday...however it's share price has increased from £2.20 to £2.70 in less than a week and I am wondering whether or not this bird has already flown...

Well, I have said this before...the previous CEO who was a naval man , likes big boats so he bought not one of them but two, despite the fact that Saga is an issurance and travel agent , not a cruise operator..is that me, or was that the most crass thing anyone could have done on board of directors ?
The company is now riddled with huge debts, have massive fixed costs to pay and the man responsible has sailed into the sunset...you do the same with this stock.
SELL..

The Ferrexpo share price was double what it is now, just 7 months ago and the financials have, if anything, improved since then ..once the background noise dissipates the share price will in my view , take off again...

If investments in general were to double over 5 years...i.e. increase by around 15% per annum (like Fundsmith and Lindsell Train funds) then we would be happy...I don't think we will have to wait anywhere near as long for our money to double here, which would then allow us to sneak off, and look for another value offering share elsewhere...we just have to be patient , or at least that's what I keep telling myself.. it may well take a scenic route to get there, but I think it's worth fastening our seatbelts for.

JTMacs...the article you are referring to with John Cronin's comments was the same article which formed the basis of my first (and in my view) most likely scenario which would bring euphoria to this board and leave me reflecting on the opportunity profits I have missed out on..
Bblurker/Darkfung ..thank you for your comments...my contributions are all made in good faith and in the interests of encouraging an open and balanced dialogue ..the only agenda I had for selling at 68p three days before the strategic announcement was made, was to stop the prospect of losing MY money which it did.. I am happy to acknowledge the contribution that a person called "Sloano" made on the AFDVN board about the risks posed by the FOS....why did I listen to him rather than the other board participants ? It was because he used to work for the FOS which was precisely the kind of contribution I was looking for...needless to say he was ridiculed, insulted and called a trol and a shorter but I have him to thank for avoiding the huge losses that I would have inccurred...
I join and contribute to these boards to share my opinions and to hear others...in particular I seek out those with contrarian views, indeed often the fiercest critic of the share , and rather than insult them I question them with respect on why they hold those views...my aim is to be able to justify my continued holding of the share in the light of what they have said...if I can't then I consider selling...simple as.
.I have no interest in back slapping those who keep telling themselves and others that a huge hike up in price is around the corner..that group think mentality can be dangerous..
Hey Betright who labelled me a liar. Are you actually BELTAP from the AFVDN board because he said that my analysis was a load of tosh'
My contributions are made for those who value them...if you don't agree that's fine but insulting me is like insulting your GP who tells you that you should lose weight when all you want to do is to eat more pies !!
If anyone on here thinks I should buy back at the lower price then please tell me why ? If I hadn't sold when I did then I would hold for now but I certainly wouldn't be buying any more in the light of all the uncertainty around..

BigB...no I haven't ..I have never shorted this stock...nor did I say so on the other board..
BigB..I think you have an irrational attachment to this share .my option 2 is no different to the one you have been voicing your fears about since I came on the board originally.
Take one step back BigB and pause and reflect...TRG are actively pursuing the first option for the benefit of all shareholders , but if they fail then what other options do they have. Sorry to disappoint...I thought you of all people would have taken a more reasoned approach.

Sorry I was cut short by the length of my contribution..
What I meant to say is that it all feels a bit like placing reliance on guessing correctly on the toss of a coin , which to me is gambling not candid investing..
Good luck to all

Well hello all...I wasn't intending to post here again and instead made my contributions on the AVDFN board instead , under the pen name 'Candid Investor'
First of all I must declare a 'disinterest' in this share since I sold all of my holdings last week at 68 pence..at the moment , that seems a shrewd move but only time will tell.
I can forsee three future possible Scenarios for Amigo, there may be others, but I will stick to the ones which I see as the most likely , with each being duly weighted in my mind.
1...A third party sale...this is a distinct possibility...one version of a likely scenario which has been put forward by one investment house is that there could be one possibly two third parties who have shown a tentative but not as yet formal interest in the business and that TRG are forcing their hands with this strategic review..they are also hoping that an additional party would also show an interest which would set off a bidding war which could result in an offer price of up to £1 per share being achieved (forget £2 per share...that is pie in the sky...remember this a a fire sale and TRG's actions are an overt statement that they see no future value in their 61% holdings , otherwise they would have carried on business as usual.
It has to be said though that their actions are a high risk strategy, because if a sale doesn't emerge , then they find themselves with 61% holding in a company that nobody wants to buy ..
2..the second scenario which again is a distinct possibility is that if a proposed sale falls through then TRG can adopt a reasonably ustified approach of becoming a buyer of last resort, and take the company private and compensating minority shareholders with a cash offer of say 20 pence a share to make it worthwhile to them..
3..finally TRG might take the view that taking on the FOS and with it the FCA is a battle they can't win so they instead opt to cease future trading and sell off their order book which in essence is their only assets and opt for going into administration to settle off the company's outstanding loans with the banks...naturally this would be the worst outcome for shareholders..
Yes there might be other possible scenarios , but in my view they represent the three most likely ones..
If I hadn't sold last week , I know which I would choose but I did sell so don't have to make that decision...
What I would say though is that since the announcement the share price is thus far going through the 4 stage cycle in situations like these...as follows..
1..Shock...share price fell to 37 pence..
2..Denial...this can't be happening and their will be a positive out come...share price rose to 52 pence..
3..the recognising there is a problem phase ..where the price gradually descends but also oscillates upwards as some market participants re-enter the denial phase..
4..Either complete capitulation of euphoria as the results of the strategjc review/sale process become clear..
To me it feels like all hop

Hello all...my pen name on here 'always wrong' doesn't relate to me personally , but to share prices generally and to the clowns (sorry ) IM's that monitor and report on them , usually trailing the prevailing market price at the time..
I don't hold any Fresnillo shares but I am waiting to pounce from the sidelines...if I am right, the contra virus will act as a catalyst for a market pullback in general taking all share prices down with it, this is nothing more than a normal market phenomenon ..if and when the market ascent resumes, I will definitely invest here..and all on the back of my belief of an upwards step change in the future silver price, duly leveraged by Fresnillos relatively fixed cost base...this share could easily double in the next 12 months in my view..they are a big player with further expansions planned.. I don't like the fact that the public share vote is less than 30% but no bargain comes without risk....good luck all..

I no longer post on this board but I make contributions to the ADVN board under the name "candid investor" feel free to read my contributions there

Yuri.F.. Ok and understood ..On this basis I have decided to pull the plug and not post on this board..

Sorry no time for that..look at my first impressions original post.

Ok briefly...I take your point BB...but holding onto rather than selling at a loss, isn't the same as filling your boots up and buying more..and just because I am angry doesn't mean that I think the stock is now overvalued, it just means that I now think the stock isnt as undervalued as the 1st quarter accounts led me to believe..finally, please don't sell because of what I write...make your own mind up about that..

BigB...as you know I am very appreciative of your insightful and wise comments on this board, which always make me, as I mentioned before, pause and reflect... but as a retired qualified accountant with 40 years PQE and FD for 20 of them, I still feel annoyed , even angry about the half year accounts as presented, the events that followed and even the questioning the Board received at the webcast...
I am away tonight and have a busy weekend lined up but when I get a moment I will start a new thread entitled "Reasons to be Angry ..parts 1, 2 and 3..."
These will purely be the reasons why I feel angry , and as always they are not intended to persuade any fellow investor on this board to either buy more, or sell any that they have ...and for the record I will continue to hold, but I am, and am entitled to feel angry and I will tell you why when I get a free moment. As a flavour of what I mean though , go back to my original posting of First Impressions , which I wrote before the markets opened yesterday ...As always DYOR and in your words ATB..

Just released an RNS that TRG are to appoint a second independent member to the Board

BigB...I have now listened to the taped webcast earlier and yes, the management team did come across as being polished and professional...lots of reassuring noises and mentions of benefitting from being best in class in a number of areas....I was surprised though that no fund manager challenged them on being best in class when it came to the acid test of share price performance; I have mentioned before that virtually everyone who has bought and held their shares to the current date has lost money...their share price has fallen nearly 80% since flotation...certainly something to ponder about and evaluate its recovery potential..