Member Info for alwayswrong

Maucha..good point about a share price which is apparently at rock bottom , subsequently going on to fall further...that's a lesson that I have learned;. just because a share price is already ridiculously low doesn't mean that if can't fall further, in fact it usually does... because we can't predict what the bottom will be and hence what price we should get in at ..but we all hope that in time, there will be a shift in momentum and normality will return to the share price and we can profit from its rebound...

Monkshood - Thanks for sharing your investment strategy.. I wish you well with it..yes I too have also pulled out of shares early when they have subsequently tanked .. notably Carillion and Saga the first time round...I have made most of my gains when investing in shares losing over 50% of their share price in one day as Amigo did....I then try to hold for a few weeks at most, getting in and out quickly and selling on the bounce upwards..this did happen with Amigo when the price went to 80 pence but I decided to hold because I thought the business and Balance Sheet fundamentals were still too sound to let go at this price...of course it proceeded to fall to the current price of 68 pence , and flirting with its 12 month low of 67 pence but I am still holding with the same conviction of both yourself and BigBangs who put up excellent arguments for holding onto (and indeed adding to) Amigo shares which I fully agree with. I guess patience is the key here, and hoping for an improved outlook when the half year results are released on the 27th...

Yuri...given the downbeat remarks made in the first quarter results which were announced just one month before the end of the half year , I am not expecting a lot of good news...at this stage I will be content with there being no further deterioration in their outlook..
I can't help thinking that the interest rate levied of 49% APR is too high given the guarantor requirement ..
Their profits will be optimised by charging an interest rate which extracts the 'maximum amount of feathers' from the 'least amount of clucking'
That optimum level of interest APR lies somewhere between 0% and 1000% both of which would result in business failure .so what would the optimum level be...well with a 30% plus impairments level and a 20% plus cost of adminstration and collections , I think 49% is too high...
...maybe a lower rate of say 35% APR would attract more reliable income streams, due to lower impairment levels, resulting from more affordable repayments for borrowers, ...this would also lower collection costs and enable Amigo to avoid the scrutiny of the regulators.. furthermore this reduced APR would make the loans more attractive to borrowers with a much higher credit rating as well.. just a thought but worth bearing in mind that Amigo are only paying around 5% on the funds that they borrow..

Thanks Monkshood, I lost money on Metro too...bought at £4 and got out at £3.20...also lost albeit a lesser amount on AML...on both occasions I breached my mantra of not investing in shares that don't pay a dividend ...that alone now would put me off RSG but their Balance Sheet looks healthy with little debt and good margins ...just needs a step up in gold prices and the multiplier effect could more than double the current share price..
My problem is patience...I want to see profits in real time and have exited shares which went on to achieve far higher gains...for me the fear sets in before the real gains take place..

That looks to have been a smart move Monkshood selling out of 888 holdings on Friday...they have fallen by over 10% today !! Any other tips. ?

Personally , I don't think too much can be read into Invesco's decision, in this instance, to reduce their holding...they may be doing this simply to rebalance their whole portfolio...in reducing their holding in Amigo, however, they clearly felt that this was a good price to exit at, although the buyer presumably believed that 70p was a good price to enter at so overall, nothing has really changed as these kinds of transactions are a zero sum game..
Hold remains the strategy for me at this time even though I still see the stock overall as a buy if as a new addition to an overall portfolio..

Well the 4% that Invesco dumped had to be declared because their holding was over 5% originally..
If a new fund-manager was the buyer they won't have to declare it because their holding would presumably be less than the 5% limit..
Like you I am confused as to where the remainder went ..BB mentioned something about both transactions being recorded as sells but even if that was the case there is still another 2% which is as yet unaccounted for..
Can the company buy shares but just keep them in treasury for subsequent onward sale...to private investors perhaps. ?

The large transfers are still taking place....a further 4.6 million shares were traded 20 minutes ago at the same agreed transfer price of 70p but the headline share price hasn't likewise fallen...looks like a major transfer of ownership is taking place..
BB..thanks for your knowledge about buy backs.. I had observed that prior notification to the market place always did happen along with details of the subsequent executions but wasn't sure if this was a regulatory requirement or just an unofficial best practice phenomenon..
Yuri F...the offloading of portfolios would show up as a purely financial transaction not affecting share dealings as this would be a loan book transaction (with subsequent P&L and B/S effects as in added impairment provisions combined with receivables reduction) so that can be ruled out with regard to the share dealings..
Monkshood...yes it is obvious that there has been an agreed transfer taking place at 70p as I first pointed out yesterday with 6 large separate tranches of trades at this price and we now have a 7th...
The plot thickens but I calculate that the large tranches of trades taking place have now effectively transferred 10 % of the entire share capital base so I am assuming JRB are somehow involved ...

BB..how are you able to rule out a buy back ? The amount of shares involved if bought from the Richmond Group would certainly help redress the institutional/private investor imbalance or they could be acting as an intermediary for Richmond to offload a substantial holding of their shares without crashing the price.. like I said though I am not sure if there is a regulatory requirement to notify the market well in advance of any share buy back intentions which to my knowledge hasn't happened..
All of this of course is mere speculation and the truth will emerge in due course...

The massive transfer (split into half a dozen trades) took place at mutually agreed share price of 70p...
Should we sell off at this price level or buy more...that is the question...on balance , I suppose it's a hold and that is what I am going to do for now..

Wonder if it could be a shares buy back although no prior intention of this notified...it must be an offload from the Richmond Group presumably, but if so who was the buyer . This uplift in price could be a temporary bounce ..it is very unsettling to say the least and the 5 day trend is still downwards....I am undecided as to whether to liquidate my holdings now at a small liquidated loss...that would still represent a 10% comparable loss to the share price last week...

Over 40 million shares traded over the past hour...that's nearly 10% of the whole issued share capital...what the hell is going on ..despite this the share price is rising now..
BB...Does this make for a final opportunity to exit before it crashes ??

Thanks Maucha...my handle of always wrong refers to a company's share price due to market sentimentality...and the fact that this is always based on historical information...ultimately of course the share price and fundamentals do align so maybe my handle should be ..usually wrong..

Yes BB the point you make re the shorters is a valid one but liquidity too low for them to make money...their opportunity to do this was earlier in the year unless of course they have gotten wind of something else which could make the share price tank... maybe an accounting error or something similar that is what lies at the heart of my fears.
I note the share price is still teetering ..

Maucha...I have followed Big Bangs a lot on here and he knows what he is talking about..

We also need to take into account that on the other hand , total volume has been less than 600,000 at the moment which could just be a handful of private individuals panic selling following the news of Quick Quid...to me, this is the most likely and indeed the volumes are not increasingly rapidly anymore although something more sinister cannot be ruled out..

BB...hard to dispute anything you are saying and do agree with conventional wisdom advising to follow the trend.. Lots of negatives surrounding this share including and especially the major shareholder not being able to take up the slack and the threat posed by taking the company private ..
At the moment the lowest trade price today has held firm at 70p..if this holds we may get through it but if it doesn't we could see a further push down ..
My recollection of the lowest share price here was 67.8 pence several weeks ago...I am hoping this is just a retest of those lows...time will tell...
A poster on the ADVN board stated on Saturday that this share was a ripe target for a SHORT given the demise of Quick Quid so that can't be ruled out either..

Now down 8% so something is wrong...

I would also like to think that insider trading shouldn't happen but just take a look at the downward movement in share price immediately before the public release of the first quarter results.. this could be a similar episode although it's another month before the results are released...

This share has been trending downwards since it reached 80p a few weeks ago...it's funny , how our emotions kick in and buy more when the share price rises and sell when it falls whereas logic would suggest the opposite would be a more successful strategy..
I am worried though about the claims management companies now circling Amigo given that they have already devoured the low hanging fruit of Wonga and Quick Quid.. it's so easy to find disgruntled borrowers to represent them...anyone currently in arrears would be an easy target and the impending regulatory review will shift the odds in their favour ..Leaks cannot be ruled out though and that is equally menacing ..certainly dangerous territory we are in but whereas the fundamentals are evidently worse given the declining first quarter results, the fall in share price has been disproportionate to that but maybe there is something we don't yet know about ...
The share price has fallen significantly on less than 400k of sales ..just imagine what 3 million share sales would do .