Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
I’m a little surprised SP hasn’t shifted with this but market seems to take little notice of future earnings potential ATM.
I saw with interest the post on twitter of the Doosan factory and its progression.
I guess if royalties and other income streams start to flow as anticipated the SP should follow.
I get the feeling there is time to see how things pan out before topping up.
FOMO was very 2021!
Https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/german-ministry-halts-all-hydrogen-related-funding-approvals-in-wake-of-h2-nepotism-scandal/2-1-1601847
Not sure if material to ITM. Probably not, even in short term. May impact investment decisions more generally though.
Here’s my thoughts on P2s.
Synairgen clearly know what they want to do with these studies, yet here we are still waiting for details. Why? They have had plenty of time to work all the details out. All the while limited funds are draining away.
Speculation on my part but the only reason for being this slow is if other parties are involved. NIH, MRC, Jansen or other BP. Some kind of partnership on the P2s, particularly if pharma would be ideal and should see a bit of a re-rate in SP.
Https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/where-will-it-be-cheapest-to-produce-green-hydrogen-ieas-new-interactive-data-tools-show-some-surprising-results/2-1-1559524
This is related to the IEA piece referred to below and shows that UK with wind and solar paired with presumably PEM us definitely a goer in the green H2 stakes. The results of UK « hydrogen auction » should be out soon. ITM hinted that this might be good news. They must have some confidence in the bids they are involved with. This coil potentially be a catalyst for upward SP movement.
I may be wrong but my recollection is that the shell refyne 100MW deal was preceded by a rather vague notification in which the specifics were not mentioned. I expect in the next 1-2 months who and where will become clear. I suspect the keeping quiet at this stage is at the request of other commercial parties to the deal.
I take this as very good news. Totally take your point about FIDs and no guarantees but it certainly puts ITM in the top spot for this « multi- hundred MW » contract should it materialise.
Momentum seems to be with ITM currently and I like their focus- more so than plug and Nel, their main competitors.
I don’t know if you saw the statistic that more than half our renewable energy projects are owned by sovereign wealth funds. No reason UK plc can’t get in on the act.
Not sure whether it will be good or bad for our current renewable companies- Greencoat uk wind, ORIT to name a couple of the smaller ones.
They aren’t doing too well at the moment with 70% tax and unable to write off new green investment against profits, unlike fossil fuel companies. To coin a new labour song/phrase « things can only get better ».
There is a conundrum here that I have not seen properly modelled.
We talk about the levelised cost of green hydrogen 3,5, 10 years in the future and different models come up with fairly wide range of estimates. $ 5-15 per kg and compare these with grey hydrogen and estimate £ 3-5 roughly though there were times in the last 2-3 yrs when green was cheaper.
What I haven’t seen modelled is the cost of grey hydrogen if we continue on the same trajectory with wars and political shenanigans causing price shocks with ever increasing demand but no increase in supply. I think the US government did the maths,ran it through some big computers and came up with what they have aptly called « inflation reduction act ». They didn’t call it a green deal but hard $ has driven their decision making. EU similarly pumping some fairly hefty cash, though perhaps per capita 1/3 of USA and in the uk zero ambition. Calls of « we can’t afford it ». No calls if we can’t not afford it. That is before you even start to estimate the costs of global warming to uk, EU and internationally.
We deserve better politicians, higher level political debate and greater ambition. We still have some top companies in green energy - ITM and ceres with world beating tech. Sadly stuck with a government that has been navel gazing for years.
Best suited to where waste heat can be harvested eg industrial and chemo cal processes. Ammonia production ideal. Pink hydrogen from nuclear potential serious application too. Less suited to intermittent renewable energy. Requirements for hour to hour matching of H2 production to new renewable energy source probably not ceres ideal space for SOFC.
Interesting that Delta are big in data centres. SOFC ideal for data centre micro grids.
Just my opinion. Market still very immature and conservative companies still needing reassurance of efficacy as well as efficiency.
I think this one is a long term hold. It’s going to take another couple of years for royalty revenue to build. Until then most of the companies revenue will depend on licensing deals. Another couple of deal in he next 12-18 months and we should be SP take off. Meantime any changes are likely to be speculative. Hard to know for sure but it looks like 150-170 may well be the bottom. Fingers crossed. I’m sure our technical investors will have a few words on that subject.
Https://www.fuelcellchina.com/Industry_information_details/1073.html
The Chinese risk may not be quite as bad as some fear. They currently make mostly alkaline electrolysers- not in direct competition with ITM. Also there have been significant delays in their highest profile projects suggesting some ongoing issues with reliability etc. There have been articles like the above suggesting that they might not be as cheap as initially thought. Final defence is political USA won’t support Chinese products in their IRA, Europe may well go the same way and UK- who knows!
Mike- no dilution as far as I am aware since £4 placing. Cash position strong as a result of the cash placement.
Progress has been bumpy since then. Increased losses on support for prior deliveries, slow ramp up of production, losses greater than expected.
Since change if CEO we initially had a little bit of kitchen sinking ie get all the bad news out at once. Since then it appears steady execution of plan. Slower ramp up of orders and production has given ITM time to get things in order. The increased power supply to factory to allow FAT to be completed at reasonable scale a basic. Collaborations with Johnson Matthey and a couple of other companies notable. Some big orders in the pipeline 3x100MW but no final investment decisions made on these.
I would say looking a lot brighter than 1 year ago but need evidence of orders and delivery to de-risk this. Then we should be looking at £4 again. In ITMs defence they haven’t wasted as much money as plug power and are now razor focussed- even more so than NEL. The delay in FIDs over the last year may have been in ITMs favour. For me it’s a buy/hold at this level. Managed to top up a little at lower prices. Tempted to buy a few more.
DYOR
As far as I am aware most of the Chinese competitors are alkaline electrolysis. PEM is more efficient and better matched to intermittent renewables. I suspect that Chinese may well pump up their PEM production. Article below outlines state of play as of mid 2023.
Looks like the 2023 pause in FIDs for projects may accidentally have allowed ITM to get their house in order.
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/worlds-largest-pem-green-hydrogen-project-announced-in-china-backed-by-4-5bn-of-investment/2-1-1479258
Https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/power/south-korea-passes-1gw-of-hydrogen-fuel-cells-installed-for-power-but-market-not-gaining-momentum/2-1-1589507
This might not be good news for Ceres power given Doosan partnership.
Not sure how much licensing money that partnership is meant to generate. The above article isn’t very well written and slightly contradictory. I suspect a « bot »…. ai journalism still has some way to go.