Member Info for aligator

Inevitably there is no smoke without fire (positive in this case!). Agree that MMs may possibly be waving their wands but two scenarios enter my mind - 1. someone is trying to subtly accumulate a large holding and 2. information leakage.
As to 1, anything seems possible although we would presumably hear of any new 3% plus accumulation and/or further 1% increases on existing 3% plus holdings. I cannot discount in my own mind that a mid-large cap o&g company would be better served making a bid at the current share price rather than wait until FID and funding announcements which will undoubtedly (imo) see the price leap. The technical risk aspect is now minimal so why wait?
As to 2, I have no comment to make except that, time and time again in my modest investing career, I have witnessed what can only be termed as illogical and irrational share price developments, not just in AIM but on the main board.
Either way this share price is heading north shortly, hopefully at a considerable rate of knots.
To all long term holders, hang in there!

My view is that the success of IOG is not if but when. The company has developed a strategy built aorund hub production of stranded assets at a time when gas production continues to fall and expensive imports mean that gas prices are likely to rise, not least during 2019. It must have the avid attention of the UK government at this time - who will do everything it can to assist - and its acquisiton of the Bacton pipeline (for £1 !!!!) was frankly a masterstroke. The board has excellent background and experience in the industry and, in procuring funding for the development work, will have been focused on minimising equity dilution through deferred contractor payments, gas pre-payments, project financing and other debt type products. At the bottom line, the board and senior management are exactly aligned with other equity investors and will therefore be driven by a desire to minimise dilution.
It has yet to drill the Harvey well and success from this will undoubtedly add to the rise in the share price. It has been awarded additional blocks which could also yield further discoveries.
IOG's challenge will possibly be the attentions of mid-large cap producers who may fancy hoovering up a few hundred bcc of near producing gas for a relatively modest outlay. However, dont expect the board to sell cheaply.
I would find it difficult to comprehend a scenario where the share price drifted downwards markedly from here.

As with MR's activity a couple of months ago this exercise will trigger an immediate income tax liability. Assuming 29p as the exercise price and 40% tax bracket, this will equate to around £212,000 in income tax. As with MR, you don't chuck such sums at the taxman if you have doubts about the company's future. Dilution factor around 1.5% which was never going to challenge share price.

GG

You reiterate an excellent point. The board and ex-directors have, collectively, a very large chunk of IOG (shares and options) and have every reason to work their proverbials off to maximise value - all neatly aligned to the objectives of PI's. Remember that MR triggered a sizeable option just a few months ago which would have created an immediate tax liability running well into 6 figures. Notwithstanding MR's presumed financial wherewithal, you don't chuck hundreds of thousands of pounds to the taxman if you think the projects a pup!

Perhaps BH has taken the view that dilution will be minimal as a result of gas pre-payment, contractor deferral and bank/project related debt rather than equity related funding. They would not have made an investment at the price they paid without doing their homework.

Good to see 30p holding. Appt of NED welcomed by those in the know and is further evidence of increasing confidence by the board. More positive news to come shortly re pipeline, FDP and funding - all in a rising gas price environment. With all this, the share price should, in theory, start to move towards broker predictions - subject to the antics of mm's. And all this before any involvement by other ii's.

Good to see 30p holding. Appt of NED welcomed by those in the know and is further evidence of increasing confidence by the board. More positive news to come shortly re pipeline, FDP and funding - all in a rising gas price environment. With all this, the share price should, in theory, start to move towards broker predictions - subject to the antics of mm's. And all this before any involvement by other ii's.