Member Info for Alfacomp

Daisan,

yes it is simple - the price of Vanadium 2 years ago was one fifth of what it is now. It takes time for increased profits to filter through the companies that actually make the stuff and then through the imperfect distribution mechanisms of yahoo, google finance etc.

This is why the market always lags reality rather than being able to predict the future based upon well established supply and demand imbalances. As for Tando they are in the same position that we were 5 years ago so there will be plenty of early investors bailing because they have no patience and none of the research that we have.

Compass007 - I doubt it will be announced before the JSE listing.

I note with interest that the domain vanadium23.com was taken in September 2016 for the very long period of 10 years.

Interesting....

Endion and pb940 - it is the main vanitec meeting not the meeting of the Energy Storage Committee, so it is only open to corporate members of Vanitec.

middleeast - did you mean invest directly in Vanadium ?

In the case of cobalt there is the company Cobalt27 which has a raft of holdings in Cobalt miners and raw material itself (despite having 5million quids worth stolen recently - https://www.ft.com/content/91a3b57c-ac66-11e8-89a1-e5de165fa619 ) - Cobalt27 was a vehicle designed to allow slavering battery metals investors the chance of a pure play investment in Cobalt without having to do any significant additional research.

Alberto Arias of Largo consistently refers to the example of Cobalt27 when making the case for a similar Vanadium financial partner ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-2nd-energy-storage-meeting-part-1-206 ) - there is perhaps an even greater benefit for such a financial intermediary in the case of Vanadium as they could ultimately own the Vanadium that is leased to VRFB users as electrolyte.

Thus 'Vanadium23' might give not just capital growth through speculation on the commodity price, as in the case of Cobalt27, but would also track a commodity that pays you to store it (in battery form) instead of one where you need to pay for warehouses and guards to stop people stealing the stuff.

Daisan - the other thing that complicates matters is that the chinese market may effectively become decoupled from the market outside china at the point that the top level economists in the government say to their Vanadium producers 'no you cannot put your prices up' and 'you have to make more and you have to sell everything you make to chinese steel company X'.

Once the China-ROW boundary becomes import to china only then their steel companies will only have to pay high prices on the extra 20,0000 tonnes of Vanadium that they need to import. As a result we may end up with a period where Vanadium prices outside china run significantly higher than the ones inside china (which perhaps we rarely see anyway).

Outside of China of course the Vanadium supply situation is even tighter, with 2 out of 3 primary producers' output being controlled by Glencore, who have every interest in seeing the Vanadium price high for a looong time yet.

The one person who may have done more thinking about the situation of chinese rebar, in part because he made it happen, is Terry Perles.

He has estimated between 16,500 and 24,300 more tonnes of Vanadium will be required per year:-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-4th-energy-storage-meeting-part-1-274

Taken together with the general increasing market penetration of high strength low alloy (HSLA) steels also led Terry to the prediction, repeated at the IFBF, that by 2025 Vanadium consumption will hit 133,000 tpa V even WITHOUT any increase due to VRFB energy storage projects.

That is a level some 45,000 tonnes higher than current worldwide production. In 7 years. That is two Vametco's per year required.

Trading analysis updated for the end of day.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-8th-oct-2018

is I notice a smidge above the last price paid for shares before the auction. Purely mentioned for balance, there's been no other UT trades in the last two and half days of trading

Loudspeaker - 250K in 1.1 Billion amounts to 0.023% so if they were obliged to notify exactly at the point that the threshold was passed (which I think might be true) then it would seem that if they were selling in 250K blocks (we didn't see much that was that much larger than this) then I estimate you'd get the 2.99% figure over 40% of the time from a purely random starting position anyway.

3.0 to 2.9951 would in principle be rounded to 3.0, somewhat confusing but there it is (0.0049%) 21% of the time
2.9950 to 2.9851 would be rounded to 2.99% (0.0099%) = 43% of the time
2.9850 to 2.9770 would be rounded to 2.98% (0.008%) = 35% of the time

It's certainly not conclusive but the pattern does seem different at the moment, perhaps the SP is too low for them now.

MadasaHat - yes thats a fair observation.

Loudspeaker - I am not convinced that the 100K sells in the last 3 days are First Island - there is strong circumstantial evidence that their sells were in 250K blocks. See yesterday's article:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/trading-analysis-5th-oct-2018-314

somtam67 - frustrating as it is at the moment what would we tell them about BE before BE tells us ?

Trading analysis updated

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-8th-oct-2018

Pdub - you forgot that we also own 74% of Vametco as well.

is one of very few igneous intrusions into the earth's crust that cooled sufficiently slowly to allow many different important minerals to fractionally cool into significant concentrated regions. In fact it is the largest of all the layered intrusions across the entire planet.

https://www.technology.matthey.com/pdf/pmr-v44-i1-033-039.pdf

For example the 210K Sell that just showed up (as predicted) - now makes more sense of the overall context of trading before 11am

Jagadish - thanks, when you are confident about the actual nature of each trade then it is possible to extract the nett MM's trading position with a fair degree of confidence. This is a bit like counting cards in the casino - when done right you can work out what games the other players are up to.

As requested

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-8th-oct-2018

Who would like a trade analysis for the day so far ?