Member Info for Alfacomp

Compass - it is easy to short and make money if there are shareholders who do no research in the company in which they have bought shares. It doesn't take a lot of them but it messes up everyone else because the SP moves in response to the dynamics of the buying and selling and not due to anything to do with the company fundamentals.

The only things that understand those are called humans and they are expected to buy and sell in the market to get the market to function as a useful company estimating system. If shareholders simply sit on their shares and do nothing the market dynamics get dictated by those who would seek to undermine the fundamentals. What it takes is for shareholders who understand the company fundamentals to step in at this point and buy every share that the shorters are giving away cheap.

In order to do this they may need to sell other shares, their grandmas or have previous sold shares in the same company so as to maintain a cash reserve for uses in situations like this. Until more of us do any of these things this type of behaviour will continue

spbhoy

yes it is a short

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-2nd-oct-2018

Followed by a rather obvious attempt at trying to drive the price down in the series of trades immediately after 8:11

daitom- yes

I detect the possible hands of the Professors Viljoen in this. They really know their stuff.

Small (15 shares) opening auction trade to try and give the impression that the share price is falling.

Market Manipulation again.

possibly if the Sep 30 reports of @VanadiumWorld on twitter are to be believed:-

THE MOST AMAZING GAINS I CAN EVER RECALL WITNESSING OVER A 2 WEEK PERIOD FOR ANY MINERAL.
#Vanadium #Pentoxide #V205 98% #China #Spot hits a high of 420,000 RMB/ton or USD 30.56 LB up a massive 23% in one week to SEP 30 #Ferrovanadium and Vanadium #Nitrogen post similar gains.

Typically the USD/KgV price for FeV is 5 times the USD/Lb price for V2O5 - see https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/vanadium-prices - we wait until we see prices reported in Metal Bulletin, but make no mistake the continue rise in Vanadium has not and does not look like stopping any time soon.

CG - thanks for the heads up - it prompted me to head over to Yahoo Finance to see what BMN's profile looked like. Apart from the rather obvious '10 things investors in Bushveld Minerals should know ' clickbait there is little linkage to content of genuine interest. So I thought I'd try and rectify that by at least starting a conversation there on the subject of BMN:- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMN.L/community?p=BMN.L feel free to contribute there and widen our global audience.

Psyurmh - actually they may have had to pay more for those First Island shares than they got by selling what they did not have between the 5th and 13th of September. What Fortune did by dropping the Sojitz news in on the 13th September was what Elon Musk was trying to do.

However in our case FUNDING WAS SECURED.

Trading analysis and commentary for today

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-1st-oct-2018

Mrremmy - regardless of whether your or I would like to make mixed acids electrolyte ( that can pretty much only be supplied to UET ) the environmental reports illustrates that that is not on the cards. There is not a single mention of Hydrochloric acid.

Remember that Rongke Power, who are making the Dalian 800MWh, although they are very closely associated with UET, are unable, or chose not to, use the mixed acids electrolyte on that project. Remember also that the patent and licensing is controlled not by UET, who you might be able to cut a deal with, but PNNL, who themselves are run by a private company, Battele, on behalf of the US government, not a civil servant.

Thus it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Battele come under political pressure from the current, or any future, idiot in the white house not to license patents for production of a very significant new energy storage component outside of the US, especially whilst US Vanadium mines are going to be making a fuss about getting up and running and wanting to put the boot into anyone already doing what they would like to, but outside of the US. We already have US academics running around saying that Vanadium is a 'scarce' and 'rare' element, when it is nothing of the sort. We don't need to put our heads on their block and then hope that we can ask the US government very nicely not to bring the axe down.

The beauty of the classic sulphuric acid electrolyte is that anyone can make it (if they have vanadium) and anyone can use it (our customers for example.) Thinking like normal technologists - that patent protection is a way to win market share doesn't work if you are trying to make a product that can be used by the widest possible group of VRFB manufacturers.

Remember it is not our goal to make UET the only VRFB company in the world it is to make the VRFB industry the largest possible grid scale energy storage industry that it can be.

SOTRR - so far up until 28th Sept I have 7 Million sells in duplicated pair trades. We are still getting reports from the 28th Sept so it may turn out that it is possible to fully ascribe the 8.3M or so of the YD selldown as the duplicate pairs.

If not then the pairs might still be YD but that they do not account for the full 8.3M as perhaps there may have only been a 7M hole in MM2's balance sheet. As this shows ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/trading-analysis-26th-sept-2018-307 ) I calculated a 6.5M short on the 18th Sept, but this was only counting from the 5th sept so maybe they were already 0.5M in on the 5th.

and pray tell which was your buy order ?

Ophidian.

That it is a pity.

It is actually OUR website by the way.

Ophidian - perhaps there are other factors that you have not considered such as 1) the precipitation of V2O5 in solution at higher concentrations of the classic electrolyte ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-2nd-energy-storage-meeting-part-2-207 ) 2) the fact that it might not simply be as simple as paying a royalty to PNNL to manufacture the mixed acids electrolyte (after all only 3 organisations are allowed to make the mixed acids electrolyte and none are allowed to make are supply to a third party that does not have the right to use the mixed acids electrolyte).

However if you have fully considered these factors then I suggest you share your thoughts with the rest of us in an article on VRFB electrolytes for the Bushveld Perspective.

The other question of what is being referred to in the cesnet paper is partly answered 1) it is not mixed acids VRFB electrolyte and 2) we cannot work out the concentration of all Vanadium ions in the end electrolyte solution because it seems that we have not been given sufficient information - this may be deliberate.

Ophidian you are quoting energy densities for the electrolyte - they are quoting energy stored per amount of Vanadium in the electrolyte.

You can dilute your electrolyte as much as you like with water - that changes the energy density per Kg of electrolyte but has no effect on the amount of energy stored per Vanadium ion. Their way of quoting figures is actually more reliable if you are not hung up about how heavy your tanks of electrolyte are.

Ophidian -

it is what is shown in the EIA paper:

83 Kg of Vanadium (3+) in 1446 Kg of Electrolyte. Flow 27, table 3.2 page 12 ( http://www.cesnet.co.za/pubdocs/Bushveld%20Energy%20Company/Draft%20Scoping%20Report_Bushveld%20Energy.pdf )

I agree that figure seems low but this might be that the solution is prepared in an oxidation state of 3.5+ so the solution would actually contain just as much V (4+) as (3+).

Had the mass flow for V2O5 into the system been listed explicitly this would have all been very simple to work out.

The 146MWh is simply what you would get from applying the company stated ratio of 1GWh = 5,000 tonnes of Vanadium-in-Electrolyte (2017 Annual report page 19) to a mass of 730 Tonnes of Vanadium.

In going from zero to ktpa-V electrolyte usage you have to go through 730 tpa - the only question is can the process cell that is described in the cesnet document only be created once or can multiples of this be built. It is no question really, of course multiple process cells can be built.

I am sure they could quadruple production in the course of time - space is not an issue. Supply of vanadium is. As for the difference between 146 and 200 - the 5000 tonnes vanadium per GWh is only approximate and may take into account a degree of production loss between starting vanadium and end electrolyte, so I think the disagreement is within the bounds of what I might expect at the start of an entirely new industrial scale chemical process

Raz10 - exactly right - if investors in the UK are too dim to realise that this company is supremely undervalued, given all the coverage the company gets on here courtesy of this board then they do not deserve to benefit. Ditto if all they can bother doing is follow the broker guidance. Once we have a JSE listing the brakes will be off.

Mrremmy - I have had a chance to read the draft scoping report for the ELIDZ Electrolyte Plant ( http://www.cesnet.co.za/pubdocs/Bushveld%20Energy%20Company/Draft%20Scoping%20Report_Bushveld%20Energy.pdf )

From this it is quite clear that 1) it is the standard single acid (sulphuric) VRFB electrolyte that was invented by UNSW in the 1990s and is now out of patent protection so is used by pretty much everyone around the world apart from UET that have access to the PNNL mixed acids electrolyte.

2) The process flow diagram on page 12 (Diagram 3.1) shows that the process will produce 1.4 Tonnes of electrolyte an hour, containing 83 Kg of V (3+) ions - this process would run 24/7 so that would be 2 Tonnes of Vanadium in the electrolyte per day = 730 Tonnes per Year

3) The usual rule of thumb is 1 GWh = 5,000 Tonnes Vanadium in the electrolyte. Going on this 730 tonnes would yield 146 MWh of VRFB energy storage per year.