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updated now - sorry it was a late night.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.comtrading-analysis-4th-oct-2018

SOTRR - i was pointing out the scenario which makes the fewest assumptions - that would give a quasi-stationary equilibrium after the current period of glencore putting the market over a barrel and giving it a good spanking. We can be fairly confident that largo, Rhovan and bmn will increase production as fast as they can but this may only add 10k in the next 2 years. Of course this increase might be insufficient to fill in for losses due to steel sl-a-g production, if for example steel prices were to fall even further. But if we ignore that unknowable situation and only assume that vrfb demand grows slowly then perhaps the extra demand for vanadium could be accommodated by the increases of production of the big-3 producers. But the situation could be whole lot better for us if vrfb demand really takes off.

Exactly cindercone - it is the associated activity of coming on here to try and undermine the company fundamentals that is really the corrosive element in the market. Shorters are relatively easily spotted but it may be harder to identify those that are trying to exacerbate the peaks and troughs so that they can trade them short term.

Actually a slow decline of equilibrium sales price will be exactly what you would expect in the next 2 years resulting from slowly increasing production from the existing primary producers offset against stable demand. We will enter this phase after glencore stop playing their trading games to get the price as high as possible, and before any new significant sources of production can get started.

Daisan you suggest that the 'volatility' in vanadium price implies that it can come down as quickly as it went up. This is not true in a situation where long term supply deficits suddenly become an issue when global reserve stocks are exhausted as they were in the last 9 months. A commodity like vanadium which is always in demand is not like a share price.

Trading analysis now updated to 12:24pm

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-4th-oct-2018

Diatom - we do have the largest combined coal and power project in Madagascar don't we ?

Deanos - exactly - I have updated the chart to show this. More buying will inevitably push the SP up.

Managed to squeeze in a little analysis in between conference sessions. Enjoy the rise.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-4th-oct-2018

Yep still down - it is why I am at an it conference abroad this week

indeed it certainly looks like it. does anyone want a trading analysis for this morning ?

Oh well it will teach them not to do that again

Up 6.5% on a trade volume of less than 3/4 of a million shares.

Yesterday's sellers strike really seems to have had an impact - time to stick with precisely that principle.

Ninvestor - Vametco would still be in profit at around 30 usd/kgv

Lionel - have a read of TBP vanadium prices page as curated by loudspeaker - usd/lb prices are going to be for v2o5 whilst per kg(V) are for feV

Tyfoon and Pinarello - the prospect of having a choice between leaving it to the FCA and just doing nothing seems to be somewhat limiting. There is clearly an alternative route - which is to arm ourselves with the knowledge and understanding of what is going on which when made public defeats these strategies.

Once people understand how these drops get manufactured, either by shorters, traders or Market Manipulators then shareholders will no longer sell into them. The conspiracy of silence has gone on for too long - but this is something that we ourselves can actually do something about.

Ninvestor - Indeed - you may also wish to consider that it is always nice to see BMN at the top of the LSE share chat charts even on a super quiet day like today. What other companies wouldn't give to have a shareholder forum like this.

As requested, nothing that a strong coffee couldn't assist.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-3rd-oct-2018