Member Info for Alfacomp

SwanseaYellow - instead of the question being why does it seem that nobody is interested in Vanadium to one of how come so many people are prepared to invest in a carbonated water company (Fevertree not Wake drinks).

The answer is the same people invest in what they see and they think they understand.

Whilst TBP can do something for the second part of this problem we really need to reach out to many more people and bring them in to our circle.

A few targets for me then:

1) TBP twitter followers (476) to exceed 500 by the end of the month
2) TBP followers to exceed those of SP Angel (497) by the end of the month
3) TBP followers to exceed those of Bushveld Minerals (1038) by the end of the year

Nick - whilst Market Makers can walk the price down in the confident knowledge that they aren't going to be inundated with Buys they can do this.

The only time that the 'market' can overrule the MMs is when a load of occasional AIM day traders turn up. Then the volumes are too great for the Market Makers to risk trying to game in this way. This is why typical behaviour of AIM stocks is rapid increases interspersed with much longer periods of exponential decay as MMs simply extract value from the stock.

The MMs can only short for a finite period of time - if sellers don't give them the shares that they need then they have to double up by moving the price upwards quickly and selling a load of shares a significantly higher prices - they will have doubled the size of their short but lifted the average price that they got for those shares. Then they continue with the same behaviour, hoping to get people to sell at some way below the peak prices, for the shares they need.

Buying now, whilst it appears not to affect the SP by moving it up, do have the effect 1) getting the buyer shares at a cheap point in the cycle and 2) bring the point closer at which MMs reach the limit of the exposure they are prepared to accept with their short position.

Witness yesterday when only a small excess of buys in the afternoon (+100K or so) was sufficient to move the SP back up by almost 2% ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-15th-oct-2018 ) - it appears that the MMs are getting edgy about the lack of sells that they have managed to trigger.

Nick - exactly.

Fangchenggang Energy Storage Industrial park is planning on using 250,000 tonnes of Vanadium per year.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/california-storage-bill-refers-to-sumitomo-vrfb.3384684/

Stingystim - thanks very much- I'm not actually keeping the PI holdings database - that's faramog who restarted that (I think from someone else before) some time before I started the Bushveld Perspective.

Having spent a day and a half going through the GDPR data audit for TBP so as to be 110% squeeky clean on the T&C's, Privacy Policy, Cookie Policy etc, I'm not sure I want to get any more involved in taking and storing any other personal information as part of TBP - thus at the moment I am more than happy if he keeps up the holders database independently.

What is helpful for me for tying down the trade analysis is the occasional 'I bought/sold amount X at Y time' or even 'current price to sell/ to buy' in the LSE forum - especially during periods of rapid change of SP/Bid/Ask - this allows the trades to be more accurately allocated as either Buys by PIs from MMs or Sells by PIs to MMs. It is only by accurately determining the flow of shares like this that it becomes possible to work out if the MMs are accumulating or distributing shares (i.e. buying or selling).

Drowningman - I guess that you must have been able to request a combined Bed & Isa/Breakfast trade whereas the other person, at a quarter to 4 must have simply done a sell then a subsequent buy because they didn't request a Bed & ISA from their broker/platform. They got done for the full spread of trading, you got about a sixth of that.

daddyBigBucks - I think the longest I have seen a trade report delayed is about 3 days.

Serenus and HaleSpur, thanks.

If there are any other newcomers who wish to (or already have) share their experience in discovering this board, the company or the Bushveld Perspective please let me know - these kinds of personal stories are always much more interesting to others than we may assume.

Yes they are here Larry

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-15th-oct-2018

HaleSpur,

welcome and thanks very much.

I think observations like these - of newcomers describing how they stumbled across our community are both fascinating and immensely valuable for others in the same boat. Would you mind if I posted these and others observations like them on the Bushveld Perspective?

I have a working title of 'First Posts - the newcomers perspective' - any other suggestions ?

Thanks knuttie - I have to thank Faramog and Sanchez for their great work on putting this together with me. We were hoping to get CR_UK to retweet it but it seems not to be. Anyways that's barely the point, but good to occasionally acknowledge what we've got in our community now.

bought than sold, yet SP is down almost 2% - ask yourselves why.

Answer: Because the Market Makers are short of £590,000 worth of shares and are moving the price down to try and buy them for less than that. Anyone wish to help them out ?

Thanks for the support guys - seems like it may be something that I need to take further....

Brad29 - good point - the example advertising scenarios were not exhaustive and were purely to demonstrate that TBP has many angles that PIs from outside our fold might find interesting.

The important thing is how do we pay for the adverts. The company cannot make any contribution as that would be seen as undermining our independence so I'm thinking a crowdfunded project - who would be up for contributing that that ?

Rob1967 - that is precisely why we have a the updated date column.

Total declared 464 Million
Total confirmed in the last 12 months is 53% of this, 246 Million.

abbynparit - I'm afraid across all my interests I get something like 300+ emails a a day so cannot always find the ones that are relevant - we'll discuss what can be done on this board though so if you monitor it you should find out what I plan to do. ATB

MatteBlack et al - thanks.

You will note that TBP now has a separate heading for Trade Analysis - this keeps that regular content separate from the Articles - which are mainly focussed on the company fundamentals rather than the nitty gritty of each days trading.

Jamie - thanks for the suggestions of journalist names - we are now starting to build a list of contacts that we should be sending stories to so if anyone has any other suggestions (perfect if they were known to you) then contact me at editorial @ thebushveldperspective.com

Pleased to see the mentions, albeit in an interview which seems all about the Senior miners. Much better to see JM talking to II instead of that fool Waites.

As requested

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-12th-oct-2018

Thanks for the recommendations - all helps keep the BMN board amongst the most recommended on LSE.co.uk

Headancer - very good points, you are right we need to increase promotion of our community and the Bushveld Perspective as routes in to understanding the company itself.

I am considering a multipronged attack for this

1) Targeted journalist outreach programme as you have described. We need to get a group of 2-3 people together to work on building the journalist list and to focus on informing them of critical news events that would have the chance of elevating BMN above the noise. Sojitz would have been a great example we could have exploited in this way had we been prepared. Fortunately there are plenty of good news opportunities not far off.

Without the catalytic element of an important news event to hang our approach off I do not think they will even consider visiting TBP or discover our community - their is just too much other noise in their inboxes.

2) Direct digital advertising of TBP - there are plenty of angles that investors outside of our circle would find interesting:-

a) Vanadium the commodity metal nobody has heard about - targets those interested in commodites
b) VRFB batteries - technology to really drive the New Energy Transition - targets those interested in renewables/EVs
c) The Bushveld Community, how private investors took on the system - targets those who consider themselves as private investors who would like to take on the system
d) Trade Analysis - understanding what really goes on with shares - short course targeting those who would like to understand markets or who have so far only lived on a diet of technical analysis.

You will see that we have a surfeit of great things to bring in new investors who might normally have had no interest in a South African mine. I have run highly targeted Google Ads campaigns for webstore sales before and have some experience in Ad campaign optimisation. This is perhaps a slightly broader field so I would benefit from additional help in this area. What I don't have is a budget yet to do this with.

Whilst in principle I could put adverts on TBP to try and offset the cost aesthetically this is not really something I would like to do. Whilst the comparison with the Corbine cup collection is not of course direct it does show that when a group of people put their collective hands in their pockets then a significant amount of cash can be raised for a useful cause. Is the idea of a crowdfunded marketing budget for TBP one that those here might be interested in contributing to ?

3) Continued growth of 'organic' visibility of TBP via greater engagement with Twitter followers, Vanitec, IFBF and Energy storage conferences - targeting those in the industry that can provide useful content connections.