Member Info for Alfacomp

Bryn - thanks very much yes that is very helpful information. Should be able to get this finished some time tomorrow morning.

Thanks for the thanks BTW, on behalf of myself and all the other great contributors.

I presume people might wish to see this - has anyone got any information on any trades after 15:40 - it's not obvious what exactly happened after this point.

Raz10 - sometimes you get the last half dozen or so trades duplicated on LSE, temporarily at least, which seems to be some sort of glitch - so the real test is whether there is a duplicate on the stock exchange site here:- https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GG00B4TM3943GGGBXASQ1&formName=frmRow&upToRow=-1

yes there is - so the 350K looks like it could be one of those regularly seen duplicate pairs.

looks like someone got mugged yep Rob

And another 100K faramog

Nope nothing I'm afraid. I'm hopeful we may see something next week.

Might this be in preparation for a joint listing ?

yes exactly - can't have those day traders walking away with much profit today, or they'll be back tomorrow to move it up again !

is this article tweeted about - if so then that is a great way to publicly respond if there is no comment facility on the article URL - is it accessible or do you have to go via paywall

of 41.2 is currently above Buy price of 41.099

I just checked it, twice

updated for your lunchtime perusal:-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-14th-dec-2018

Very tight spread now - might be just about to move up once more.

Talk about backward looking - no wonder I never made any money when I paid an attention to what those magazines said.

No mention of planned threefold Vanadium production expansion.
No mention of Mokopane which is the largest high quality but undeveloped Vanadium resource in the world
No mention of Imaloto coal project nearing bankability.
No mention of Bushveld Energy, of VRFB's or energy storage

I'm certainly bewildered - how is it possible to write about BMN without knowing these things ?

knuttie - don't hold back, tell us what you really think.

biganuf - no there is no way that I am aware of to see whether the trade was conducted as a DMA or as a MM-brokered trade. Though I would be delighted to be informed if the case is different and there is a way to get that information.

Thus we estimate that there has been c. 10M more buys by PIs than sells by them in the last 4 weeks. Who has bought those 10M ? well of course it is a combination of lots of different people and maybe there has only been 1,2,3M bought for a big buyer. What we do know though is that the MMs don't appear to have those shares yet to give to the buyers.

as requested:-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-14th-dec-2018

Not for calamari, natch but would anyone else like some trade analysis ?

Roscon - gold is actually a bad example of a commodity because its value is not representative of its true industrial value as so many people buy it as purely an alternative to paper currencies. Thus it becomes susceptible to all the ebbs and flows of speculation ... and unless you are a good speculator or technical trader you may end up paying top dollar for being just behind the curve.

Vanadium is perhaps a perfect commodity because it is so unknown and it's value is almost always determined by real supply and real demand. Having said that the concentration of primary Vanadium mining in just one of two hands means that when the market is tight it can get really tight as the suppliers squeeze the last dollar of profit out of their ill-prepared and understocked customers.

The other way in which the Vanadium market is not a good example of classic supply-demand economics is down to the fact that 2/3rds of Vanadium comes as a by-product of steel production (at the dirtier and least economic end of the steel production spectrum) so when steel prices are suppressed because there is a glut of steel, Vanadium prices actually go up because it's the uneconomic steel plants that cut back production first.

Roscon - that's exactly when commodities come into their own. Real stuff that real people need to build real buildings. Short of nuclear armageddon or a vanadium meteorite crashing into the pacific we are going to need increasing amounts of Vanadium each year for the next 10-20 years and that stuff has to come out of the ground because it does not come out of the air, unlike a lot of business nonsense that is out there in crypto or 'financial services' (betting).

not as much as this one

Roscon - you raise an interesting point - the volume that comes from day traders is clearly crucial to keeping the MMs on the straight and narrow and is what changes their behaviour during the intermittent periods of rerating. Once the day trading volume evaporates the MMs can get away with running long term short positions, especially when backed by tame sellers or warrant holders as they have generally been here.

The question of whether all trading is intrinsically bad and inimicable to LTHs or just trading that feeds on and encourages SP volatility is a subtle one.

There is clearly a style of trading, let us call it active damping, which helps to suppress excess exuberance in the share price and which turns shares in cash that can then be used, as Ophidian and others did yesterday to damp out the excesses of any shorting stupidity - this type of trading actually reduces SP volatility and firm's up shareholder's beliefs in the fundamentals of the company.

There are those that would like to paint ALL trading as evil - they do this to try and persuade LTH's, most crucially the large holders, to sit on their hands and not trade with the market. You might think that this is a good thing, but what it does is allow a smaller number of people to control the market dynamics and where the SP settles. Remember that the share price is not an average over what shareholders think the company is worth - it is a reflection only of the weakest shareholders (by definition the ones most willing to sell) which may only be a tiny fraction of a percent of shareholders.