Member Info for alex1978uk

Minecheck back is he? Filtered long ago. Probably punting the usual anti western Kremlin rubbish. The west should stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and inflaming the whole situation. Ukraine should have negotiated (basically surrender) before the war.

Go away Minecheck you uneducated f*#kwit.

I see Kim left early on his train. Apparently he wasn’t impressed with the Russian kit. Still sold them a few million obsolete artillery rounds though.

Russia the great power on its knees (again) hoping for help. Good luck

russian the great power madm0nk:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-brutally-mocked-after-being-left-begging-kim-jong-un-for-help-after-ukraine-humiliation/ar-aa1***od?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=u531&cvid=aca8c19bdb644fa696a0a8df40e16bce&ei=8

Chip Chapman knows his stuff:

https://youtu.be/uqJDyfvNHCs?si=7QEOwD3LnpNz3x3U

Well that is good news. Maybe that’s why the share price ticked up on Friday when everything else was down. Putin will be throwing his teddies out the pram when that Kerch bridge gets taken out.

Well yes loco let’s see what happens. The negatives now (IMHO) are not so much the war but also the macro factors. A slow down in China, or a lost decade, would have a fundamental affect on community prices, especially iron ore. In relation to the war, FXPO is not going to be as profitable as it was in the past until they start exporting via the Black Sea ports.

As I’ve said on here before I can’t see any significant appreciation of the share price until there’s some kind of significant break through by the Ukrainians. When and if that happens is a matter of opinion. There’s a few new people posting on here who are looking for an entry point. I appreciate that because the fundamentals are sound. But if Ukraine don’t break through in the next 7 weeks there’s a long wait till next spring. In the mean time Russia will start to target the electrical infrastructure like they did late winter. FXPO will shut down, macro factors will bring down the price of Iron Ore. If I was looking for an entry point I’d be waiting for some kind of break through on the ground. Ive average down for the last few years but it wouldn’t surprise me if this goes significantly lower, like it has in the past. I’ve got my finger on the buy button but not yet. When this turns it will turn quick. Ukraine makes it to the Sea of Asov it’s all over for the Kremlin scum. GLA

Must have burned through all Kazakhstan's fireworks and 1960s kit.

Monday morning joke:

https://youtu.be/g0cUjhdrM6E?si=FLga6-XqJ4vRbiYX

Bit of a read. Shows Putin has lost it and his diplomats have to follow suit:

Threats, insults, and Kremlin 'robots': How Russian diplomacy died under Putin https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66509180

That’s good news but it does say they had been stuck in port since before the invasion.

I’m reading the Russians are moving their paratroopers from the east to the south to counter any Ukrainian break through. If they are as effective in the south as the have been in the east then there’s not to worry about. Hopefully the Ukrainians have saved some HIMARS amo just for them. Going to get interesting going forward.

Putin never wanted peace. Anyone who says that is either pushing Russian propaganda or brain dead. Putin wanted to recreate the Russian empire or a like with him at the top as some kind of Tsar. While helping himself to Ukraine's industry and resources. After Iraq and Gaddafi, Putin doubled down backing every crooked dictator or warlord he could cause he was worried he might be next. Ukraine as a liberal democracy, part of the EU and NATO that was just to much for him. Who would be next, Belarus or maybe even Russia? Now he's scavenging round the world for ammunition and equipment to try and keep his rabble of an army going.

As for the Americans fighting to the last Ukrainian that was Putin's doing. He knows this is a war about ideology, east against west, and he chose to engage in it. The poor Ukrainians are just the ones bearing the brunt of it. We'll be in Kyiv in 3 days and in charge of the country in a week. Miss calculated that a bit didn't he?

As Napoleon said 'Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake'.

The issues/problems for the Russian economy aren't just related to the war in Ukraine. If Russia had been managed to its full potential over the last 20 years the economy should be at least as twice as large as it is now. More like a European power house like Germany. Suppling the east and the west with gas and other commodities. Major transport hub between the east and the west, space program etc etc. But no Putin embraced corruption and siphoned off around a trillion dollars between him, his cronies and the oligarchs. If his dictator ship hadn't fallen at the same time as the commodity super cycle, driven by the rise of China most people in Russia would still be on the bread line. Same old story with Russian. Knuckle head mentally getting them no where.

Ukraine hits Military targets across Russia. Russia targets civilians in Ukraine. Scum

Drone strikes across six Russian regions Ukrainian drones have targeted six Russian regions in the biggest coordinated drone attack since the start of the war, according to the Russian defence ministry.

In Pskov, where four military aircraft were damaged, the regional governor Mikhail Vedernikov has cancelled all flights in and out of the airport until the damage can be assessed. Unconfirmed media reports said between 10 and 20 drones could have attacked the airport.

Https://youtu.be/xLnmWeZLry8?si=lgPgDhUYwo90t-RI

Big question is if Ukraine manage to push through all lines of defence do they have enough reserves to make it all the way to the Sea of Azov? You’d think when past Tokmak any residence will be thinly spread.

Slava Ukraine

Https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-crossed-first-line-russian-defense-gen-milley-2023-8?amp

Won't make the slightest bit of different to what's happening on the front. Probably another reason Putin knocked him off cause he actually spoke the truth about what was happening. Will be old news in a week. Just another example of how awful that regime is. No regard for the 3 aircrew on the plane or people who could have been killed on the ground. Putin is a mass murderer following in a long line of previous Russian dictators who were mass murderers going back hundreds of year. I hope I see the day the Russian people string him up.

Https://www.ft.com/content/b86d7405-208d-40ac-bcb1-e89e7133b381

The power infrastructure being bombed did affect FXPO as they had to shut down production.

According to this guy the 82nd brigade, Ukrainians most capable brigade, has already been committed around Robotyne. With limited success.

https://youtu.be/qc1SV1HSfKk

It’s up to you to form your own opinion but from my arm chair it isn’t looking very positive.

If that's true and they manage to break through then they have a chance of making it to the Sea of Azov, cut the Russians off and isolate Crimea. If they are not successful the next major counter offensive wont be until next spring and that's assuming the west gives them more kit. If this happens where is the share price going to go? If the electric supply to FXPO is cut off again they are going to start burning through cash. Lots of risk and all dependent on the counter offensive being successful.

Troajan various internet media said a week ago Ukraine has taken Robotyne. Now they are saying they have nearly taken it or just mopping up. This is basically a village and this has taken them 2 months. The Russian first line of defence (trench system) is just south of Robotyne with the main line of defence around Tokmak. So they still have a long way to go. Does Ukraine have enough held in reserve for a major push through? From what I'm reading they already most of their best forces committed.

Hopefully the Russian line of defence will collapse as they did last year. I would if I was them. It will be a long winter in the trenches if there's no further movement on the front.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive doesn’t seem to be going anywhere to me. No AirPower and insufficient mine clearing equipment seems to be making the job impossible. They have about 2 months to punch through the Russians lines before the rain makes it impossible. Failing that we’ll see the Russians targeting the Ukrainian infrastructure and electricity network again during winter.

To be honest as a long term holder here I’m not optimistic anymore. Legal issues, a war with no end in sight a major slow down in China makes this more of a gamble now than an investment. I hope I’m wrong as I’m sitting on a big loss at these prices and not averaging down anymore. I hope the Ukrainians get to the Sea of Azov and point their weapons at Crimea but for me it’s time to be realistic.

Good luck all. I hope at least you get the money back you’ve invested.