Member Info for alex1621

Wolf - try to watch the HBO documentary "Gaming Wall St". It's no conspiracy, the information comes from solid sources. One of the big reveals was the extent of "naked shorting", it is much more widespread than people think.

I have a few brokers ... but this one was Swissquote, based in Luxembourg. You have the opportunity to loan shares for a % fee, which can vary. I switched the facility off, as I would never loan shares.

If you think about it, I have switched the facility off, a clear statement that I don't want my shares loaned out ... and yet they still call me? That's never happened before ... but it might just indicate that the supply of loanable shares is running dry. Make off it what you will.

Last Friday afternoon I noticed that I received a call from my brokerage, which hardly ever happens. I called them back but couldn't get through, so sent them an email and asked what they wanted, which they replied to today.

What they said is that I could earn some money if I switched on the "share loan" facility as there is a high demand to borrow shares in Boo Hoo?

That has never happened before. I won't be allowing my shares to be loaned. However, I did wonder if the shorter's are finding it harder to borrow stock?

Has this happened to anyone else?

My take is that Boo will only materially revive when the fundamentals begin to show improvement. Without that there is no reason for the shorting operation that is in place to scale back significantly.

However, we are at least beginning to see the factors that have impacted the business model - post pandemic supply issues, inflation, cost of living and consumer spending - recede. The lower interest rate environment in 2024 is also a boost. Not the beginning of the end, but perhaps the the end of the beginning.

Not really surprised by that revelation, and it fits the idea that Shein’s competitors are being teed up for cheap takeover post IPO.

I suspect that Stein will not be attacked immediately. Quite the opposite, it will be hyped up and the SP will rise sharply ... then it will be attacked. I'd guess the dossiers are already being developed.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of M&A after flotation.

A Shein bid looks likelier in 2024 as they will have a huge amount of cash to play with. With Ashley on board it will be difficult for the Kamani's to defend against it.

Pure speculation on my part but the share purchases by Ashley look more strategic than simply a harmless punt.

Boards are always obsessed with movement in the selling price … elated with a bounce and despondent with a fall. Like Benjamin Graham’s “Mr Market”. As Graham warned, he is there to serve you, not to guide you.

What we need to focus on is updates and results. Only when these improve will you see any permanent positive moves in the share price. Unfortunately, that requires patience and a strong constitution.

Good news. I’ve also read a few articles recently about how relatively undervalued UK stocks are, compared to other parts of the world. But I’m still not sure what the catalyst will be that launches an upward market trend?

Inflation continuing to fall, the first cut in interest rates, wage growth above inflation, the end of conflict in Ukraine and Israel, upward trajectory in consumer spending?

I’ve no idea but it does feel like we are closer to the end of this period than the beginning.

Still some way to go for the retail sector, but with wages more than inflation we might be closer to the turn in consumer optimism than we think.

Boom time … looked to me like a senior staff meeting?

From the "short position" graph you can see it climbing around 2 November? Every time you see this you know that something negative is going to appear on print or other media. Same old pattern.

That was a desperate attempt to smear a company that is doing what every other retailer does?

It looks to me like the buying team at Boohoo are doing their job correctly. They have absorbed increased costs from suppliers during the crisis affecting shipping and material costs, and as those costs have fallen on the world market simply asked for discounts that reflect the new lower cost environment. Every retail company in the world does this.

I'm glad to see Boohoo taking the cost base seriously and I was interested to hear Kamani's comments about "boom time". He's been in this game for many decades and has been through a number of cycles. He clearly believes that the company is close to a turn in its fortunes.

ESG concerns? From what I’ve read investors are increasingly moving away from the ESG fad.

What we are seeing is yet another shorter inspired hitjob. The problem is that it is becoming increasingly desperate.

What Boohoo needs is a return to growth, and it’s not there yet, as cost of living and interest rates are still hitting the consumer. But the tide is beginning to turn on that, and if inflation unexpectedly takes a dive, we’ll have a consumer turnaround faster than we think.

The same thing hitjob happened at Sports Direct a few years back. It damaged the company but it bounced back strongly. I think even the public are getting tired of “retailer squeezes suppliers after the suppliers input costs fall drastically” headlines. What they are really saying is that as retailers Boohoo are doing their job right.

Mike Ashley has been where Boohoo are now, so he understands better than most how these situations can play out. After IPO Sports Direct were at 277p, but after a few poor updates the share price got hammered down to 32p. A fall of almost 90%. Ashley was heavily criticised at the time. I recall that he called City Analysts "cry babies". I wasn't looking at boards at that time but I suspect the doom and gloom factor was heavy, and the short interest was high.

So what happened? In less than 5 years the share price was 922p. A 330% increase on the previous high point. I wonder how many analysts or board experts predicted that outcome? I suspect none.

So Ashley understands these periods better than most. I suspect he believes that he will be able to sell at a large profit, and that is the underlying rationale behind his moves.

I'm not sure I agree with that sentiment, as the last few years have been unprecedented and unpredictable. I suspect JL doesn't get to make every decision, as Kamani is the main shareholder. For example, do you think JL hired Molly Mae on such a large contract? I don't.

The CEO and CFO are experienced and in my view are trying to move the business in the right direction.

Ableton - thanks for that, very interesting. You are right, most retail traders do not understand the processes at play.

I’ve no idea how algo trading works, but it strikes me as a way of manipulating the shares of a company in a normal trading environment. It might all go wrong if, for example, a takeover announcement comes out of the blue.

Could it be a skim? Use the algo to push down the SP, then buy back quickly for a fractional percentage gain?

Honestly no idea but price surges at the end of day are not normal. And we’ve seen this three days in a row.

Wolf ... yes. Even Boohoo's USA revenues fell by 11%, the lowest fall of all the regions. The US economy is recovering faster than other regions, with inflationary pressures falling more quickly. The question in my mind is will we see the same pattern in the UK when inflationary pressures recede? And as the world moves out of this economic environment will we eventually see growth in sales, rather than shrinkage?

Notice on my Twitter feed that the fear and greed index is now at "Extreme Fear". No surprise about that as I've been looking at a sea of red these past few weeks.

Puzzling really as we have seen inflation fall and interest rates placed on hold.

A lot of noise also about the collapse of small caps and the AIM index.

Are we nearing capitulation?