Member Info for alex1621

The problem that Winslow has is that he has to offer a positive future vision to shareholders. If he starts by getting out bad news he will only encourage Ageas to make a slightly higher bid that shareholders will be happy to accept. Bad news in the next update doesn't serve Winslow's interests.

I think they might get an IPO, because money talks. But I'm less confident that their business model will survive long term. If that ever comes to pass then the online market will spring alive for Boo and others.

BFD - thanks. You have to ask why would two professional outfits spend so much money? Perhaps it is because they look beyond the present.

Although post being drowned out by the relentless trolls with historical articles?

I wonder what will happen to Shein post IPO when Uyghur issues are revealed.

Looks like Camelot Capital and Mike Ashley's Frasers appear to differ with your view of the prospects of ASOS?

I suspect they have undertaken due diligence before purchasing? The last few years have been incredibly tough for online fashion retailers, with the exception of tax avoiding Shein (to be discussed later).

The backdrop to this calamity has not been a normal economic environment. Quite the opposite, it has been one of the most bizarre economic backgrounds I can think of. We have had the post pandemic supply chain issues, exacerbated by war and subsequent high inflation, and to add insult to injury the high inflation has had to be dealt with by hiking up interest rates dramatically. All of which have a very dismal impact on consumer spending.

Does this go on forever? The two companies above are betting the answer to that question is no. And they might have a point. Inflation is falling around the world, interest rate cuts are soon to follow, so the immediate future looks a bit brighter. But what of Shein? I get the distinct impression that their investors are desperate for an exit before the regulatory situation gets difficult, and we are all reading more and more articles that suggest matters may soon come to a head. If their business model is wrecked, what happens to the existing players?

So they might not be as stupid as some might think.

There are times when retailers appear unassailable, and then they are not. ASOS has been up and down several times over the years. All articles on online refer to Shein. But no financial journalist ever considers whether they will go through the same pattern? It looks to me that their model is looking more and more vulnerable to changes in the laws. And it is coming from both sides of the political divide.

That is also a very interesting article, and it gives food for thought to those who believe that Shein is unassailable.

I think it will be back to where it was during the pandemic ... and now they have the increased capacity to take on more sales ion the US. This really would be a game changer, and it's not out of the question.

It is very interesting indeed. And we are hearing the same noises in Europe.

I recall that online gambling companies were making millions from US citizens, until the Government banned this activity using the Wire Act. All of the companies had to halt their US operations. Something similar here would wreck the Shein business model.

It's another reason why I think a move on a retailer like BooHoo by Shein is not out of the question. Don't be surprised if the London IPO takes off, the US Venture capitalists take their exit monies, and then the US authorities pull the plug on de minimus rules. Investors will be left holding the Shein baby.

I am using an iPad and don’t know how to. But you can search and find the article.

Google - Fortune and Didi Tang. I think it shows all Didi Tang articles. And the one today is about Shein.

If they crackdown on deminimis rules in the US and Europe … what happens to the Boo Hoo market share?

No wonder Shein want to get the IPO off the ground.

Fortune article today, by Didi Tang and AP. Suggests de minims rule is under threat. It is being scrutinised by lawmakers in both parties. A bill in the Senate would make it reciprocal to China, which sets at $7.

Bye bye Shein if that gets traction.

I’d be amazed if Ashley put in a bid. He will soon be running out of road.

It will go nowhere, until that point when it goes somewhere. I watched Rolls Royce multiply 5.35 times in 17 months, on the back of improved prospects. A similar move with Boo takes it to 180p.

Impossible? I don’t think so.

The SP is a lesson for those who get excited when it takes a burst upwards on no new business specific news. It will only go up, and continue to go up, if supported by a decent update. It doesn't have to be great, but it does have to show progress towards better numbers in the future. Until then there is no reason for shorters to move on, sadly.

A takeover approach involves the expense of hiring advisors and there will be some tactics at play. A low ball first offer to psychologically anchor expectations followed by a higher offer that might just get it over the line. No one walks away after a first offer has been rebuffed. The only thing to spoil the party is a competitor bidding, in which case 300p is more than possible.

All these programmes ever achieve is the transfer of jobs overseas. We have seen the same hit jobs on other companies, like Sports Direct. You normally find Trade Union activity behind a lot of it, and if we scrutinised the political views of the Panorama team we would find they are on the extreme Left.

SCB - the ASOS buys are interesting in the sense that they may indicate a better trading environment. As inflation falls, so will interest rates, and that is likely to increase consumption. Consumer slumps don't last forever, and nor do consumer booms, but both arise over and over again.

I don't really understand the calls for director buys, as the ones that matter have an enormous amount of skin in the game. Kamani has assets outside the business, like houses, cars, jewellery, etc. But he may not have as much liquid cash as people think. His outgoings will be fairly hefty. I don't believe that he doesn't care, quite the opposite, as he has built the business over decades, it is his life's work. I suspect he wants a revival in fortunes more than anyone on here.

I recall holding Next shares a few years back, my entry price was in the 40s. The trading was lacklustre. A city analyst analyst issued a report suggesting they were heading for a Kodak moment, a term well known to MBA students, as Kodak invented digital cameras but failed to exploit them because they didn’t want to upset their film business. The argument was that in maintaining stores they were impacting online growth. When trading is poor a poor narrative is needed to explain it. It turned out to be wrong, and now we have a new narrative. Same happened with Sports Direct. And many others.

Nicknaim - I wouldn’t sell based on today’s new. Quite a lot of advisor fees are spent getting to the bid stage. Like a mating dance, the first offer is always a bit cheeky. It’s the second one you need to wait for, and the possibility of some competition from new suitors. On balance, worth a wait.

Sky News also reporting the meeting with Hunt. I don’t think my theory on Shein buying Ashley’s stake as a platform for a bid is so outlandish.

Shein have a supplier base in China, the fact that they are looking to BooHoo suppliers implies that they are looking to move away from sensitive areas. Using cotton from places known for Uighur slave labour won’t go down well as a listed company. As a private company they don’t have to disclose. A takeout of BooHoo could change that narrative. Strange to suggest that a company would takeover BooHoo to garner legitimacy as a good actor? They would also be buying an established infrastructure with DC capacity. So I can see some rationale there.

Still speculation on my part.