Member Info for alex1621

DLG is a great opportunity for a CEO who is prepared to make the tough decisions. Winslow is taking control of a badly managed company, not a company firing on all cylinders. So I don’t see any reason why he can’t reach his cost control goals, improve margins, and lead the SP to an upward trend.

If a badly managed DLG can spend years hovering around 300p, then a well managed company should be able to do better. I expect there will be significant headcount reductions in order to take £100m out of the cost base, but when those moves are announced I'd expect to see some forward momentum on the SP.

A pretty pathetic approach from Ageas. The advisor fees would have been hefty. Not a good look for their CEO. Let’s hope Adam Winslow can deliver on his strategy. I expect the SP will drop on Monday but I don’t think it will stay low for long if the results improve.

Bfd - thanks for the link. Indeed, online clothing has really picked up.

Another positive is from the interest rate outlook. It looks as if we will have a Summer of falling interest rates.

I sympathise with your decision, it is not easy to hang on to something for years without seeing any positive return. Good luck with your future investments.

Yes, will be interesting to see how this plays out. A bit humiliating if he doesn’t have a final go.

I might write to Tim Cook and offer him £100,000 and a second hand Volvo for Apple Inc. That would make as much sense as the Ageas attempt at DLG. If you can’t get to a level that is serious, don’t bother.

FT reporting that clothing sales up in February, in particular online sales. Source from Twitter as I don’t have access.

The Times commentary today speculating on a bid between 250p and 260p from Ageas. The comment was that the Ageas CEO would look “wet” if he didn’t come back for a final go at it. The update was described as “jam tomorrow”. Also commented on was the statement about the dividend payment not being a guarantee of “resumption”.

There are significant risks for a CEO attempting M&A because of the costs involved and the personal reputational damage associated with failure (Mike Coupe at Sainsbury's comes to mind when the Asda deal was blocked, he lost his job). I don't believe that Ageas will walk away, as the actual results are just short of analyst consensus, so no big surprise to Ageas. The miss might well tempt them to make a third offer. I don't think this saga is over yet, but there will be a limit placed on what Ageas can bid. It is also possible that another player will enter the field.

Or ... the market suspects that a third bid may get over the line?

I suspect another Ageas offer will be listened to, as the update was underwhelming. The dividend of 4p has only appeared because of Ageas, otherwise there wouldn’t be one, and full resumption is not guaranteed. DLG looks pretty vulnerable.

I think there will be another bid as the last one was just a reminder that Ageas are still interested. They are waiting for the update before deciding what the bid will be. I would be surprised if it were poor. I also don’t believe Ageas will succeed, they are using psychological anchoring to get over the line with 250p. That won’t succeed.

Sunday Times reporting that the Ageas CEO is visiting China to shore up support for a bid that gets taken seriously. Seems this saga might not be over?

I understand your point about “poorly run”. The recent comments of founder Peter Wood imply that in this particular case it might well be valid. I agree it doesn’t always apply and is used a bit lazily during downturns that few management teams can do much about.

When a listed company messes up, as Direct Line did last year by stating the dividend was safe then shortly after cancel it after poor results, you can expect your share price to get hammered. And this being the stock market, the SP can go far lower than justified by the poor results. So the SP being low is no great surprise.

If I felt that DLG was incapable of recovering I would have sold last year. But this crisis struck me more as a short term issue that can be rectified, rather than an issue from which recovery was impossible. Clearly the business was badly managed. The departure of Penny James was a start, now we have a new CEO with a decent reputation. If his reputation is deserved the business is more than capable of recovering to the latest bid level and beyond.

A pretty miserable attempt at an offer. Areas need to sh*t, or get off the pot.

If next week's update is good they will have to walk away as the price will get to 250 + without them. So let's hope it is a good one.

I don't expect a bid prior to 21 March either. If the numbers are poor Ageas might go for a slightly higher offer to the first one, if good they'll have to go higher for a knockout punch. At or above 275p I'm all for it.

Personally I’d accept an offer north of 275p. I’d reinvest the money rather than gamble on turnaround plans.

DLG is a dividend stock, so restoring confidence involves showing a clear path back to dividend distribution.

Shareholders are likely to sell should Ageas (or another) make an offer north of 270p. Given that Ageas have hired additional advisors a new offer seems likely, in my view. Direct Line management have failed shareholders in recent years, so I’m not sure how persuaded to remain loyal they will be should an acceptable offer land on the table? Anyway, it will be interesting to see how this ends.

It may not be Winslow’s gift to give. A strong offer may well get Ageas over the line. Another bidder gets involved and it’s game over. His best chance is if the follow up offer is weak.