Member Info for alex1621

Precisely hopeful. In the old days investors used to hold stocks for 5-20 years plus, but now the trading mentality has taken over.

With Boo, in the present situation, you need patience. I want to see signs in the next update that they are moving in the right direction. If they can demonstrate that then the share price will move quickly when we come out of this economic period. That’s what I’m waiting for.

A better than expected inflation number lifts markets, particularly strong is online retail.

The economy is still struggling and interest rates are still expected to increase. So not remotely out of the woods yet. But this period, like every other period in economic history, will pass. And if Boo can show a steady turnaround it is likely to re-rate very quickly.

Still a share for the patient.

I’m not expecting the interim results to be outstanding as we are still in the recovery and turnaround stage, and the economic climate remains poor.

The key is whether the company are in line, behind or ahead of expectations. I don’t really see a full turnaround until around 2025, but as markets are forward looking that doesn’t mean that 2024 won’t show some SP recovery.

I don’t expect the numbers to be great either, but I am interested to see if the company is inline or above market/analyst expectations.

That will indicate that they are making progress with their back to growth strategy. There is still a long way to go, and we are still in an economic environment that is poor. So no matter how good I don’t expect short interest to disappear.

In April a number of short sellers where reported to have lost $1 billion shorting European bank shares, among them was Marshall Wace. During sharp turnarounds it’s not unusual for many of them to go out of business, as their bets go wrong.

There is no reason for a short hedge fund to back off from online retailers. The economic environment is still tough, so there will be no immediate concerns with their positioning. Especially with an AIM stock, which can be thrown around at will with enough resources applied. New investors don’t change that.

What changes everything is events like a sharp improvement in the financial updates and/or any credible takeover attempt. That will have them running for the exits. We are not there … yet.

On another point, Naomi Campbell appears on P3 and P17 of todays Sun newspaper. Seems the collection is grabbing attention.

The problem with those that cite Shein continuously is that they fail to understand that we are talking about a differentiated product, fashion brands, and not a commodity like oil and corn.

My take on Shein is that the chicks will come home to roost after the IPO. The short hedge funds will be preparing dossiers on slave labour and environmental concerns, as well as lobbying legislators over abuse of the import rules. Politicians in Europe and the US are already flagging such concerns. So Shein's future success is not "nailed on" by any means.

PDS2023 - it’s a rigged game we are in, and no one, either authorities or journalists, go anywhere near it.

Recommend watching “Gaming Wall St” on HBO Max. Documentary exposes the extent of illegal naked shorting. Bear in mind the US regulators are better resourced than the UK, and it is still an issue.

Imagine what’s going on in the UK?

Update taken from article today in fashionunited.uk

""The group is further expecting recovery in its gross margin "as a result of lower material costs, the weakening of the US dollar against sterling and the euro and lower freight costs", which have each improved in recent weeks".

"In the UK, sales are forecast to have increased by 8 percent, despite seeing "unseasonable weather" in July and August, impacting transactions and footfall for the retailer".

Seems discount retail didn't do as bad as the headlines would suggest.

Pedro - it was you I was referring to, not T4G.

On the Market Maker claims, BrokeNSmoke, I simply don't have sufficient technical and insider knowledge to assess that claim. But I do believe that the AIM market is the most manipulated in the UK, and anyone investing on that market has to be very careful. Naked shorting is a thing in the US, and I've no reason to think it is not happening here also, but don't expect any newspaper or financial journalist to go down that rabbit hole. Most of their "sources" for scoops operate on the short side, and no one bites the hand that feeds. Too many times I've read what seem like planted stories prior to shorting activity, some of which are simply a re-hash of earlier news.

A bulletin board would be more interesting if every post was like a You Tube video. So you can see the actual poster and listen to their post.

I suspect there would be a lot more filtering out of obvious nut jobs or perhaps there would be only genuine posters participating?

I’ve no idea what motivates non-holders to spend their lives spreading doom and gloom on a bulletin board? If you are not getting paid to do it you really need to get a mental health check up.

But back to Boohoo. I’ve no idea about the next update, I just know that the previous one was better than expected. The Kamani purchase was intriguing, as he will know what the current trading is like. But improving numbers and more optimistic forecasts are important.

On the macro side, I’m looking for a halt in interest rate increases, a fall in inflation and lower pay offers next year to reflect these moves. My guess is that the consumer will bounce back as the economy begins to settle. The other elephant in the room is Ukraine. Any moves that get us closer to a resolution would be a big positive.

Hexam. 300,000 shares? Can you show the evidence please?

One thing I never do is reveal number of shares owned or cost price, so anyone making a claim about my ownership is either mistaken or deliberately misleading? I will give you the benefit of the doubt and say you mixed me up with someone else?

But back to Rolls Royce. The point being made is the a SP can move much higher or lower than anyone imagines. As humans tend to psychologically anchor to current prices, no one could imagine a move from 420 to 32, or a move from 32 to 400. But they do happen, frequently. I could have used many other examples.

LOL … a man with no financial interest (long or short) piles into a bulletin board to dampen any thoughts of a Boohoo recovery. No surprise there. There would be plenty of Pedro equivalents on the Rolls Royce board in October 2020.

Hexam … but Rolls Royce is different? Well that’s a statement of the obvious. I could have used numerous examples of condemned companies that bounced back strongly … over many many decades.

To undertake an analysis of the two business models simply misses the point. I recall a period when Next plc was on its knees (share price wise) during the period after George Davis left. I can’t recall where the SP was, but I might try to find out later. Same narrative, different company.

When a retail company is at the bottom of the cycle it’s easy to provide a persuasive negative narrative. It never seems to dawn on some that when conditions change, so does the narrative.

On the subject of how SP can change with some positive updates:

Rolls Royce 39p October 2020

Rolls Royce 220p September 2023

That’s a move of almost 6 times in 3 years. And Rolls Royce is not an AIM stock. Moreover, it is being heavily tipped to go higher. One of these “get in before it rockets” stock.

Why? Because the narrative has changed, the future looks brighter, the updates have improved.

I wonder what the Rolls Royce bulletin board looked like in October 2020? My guess is that it would be full of “it’s going to zero”, “it will never recover” etc etc etc.

If Boohoo followed a similar trajectory it would be at £2.00? But of course … that’s just impossible, isn’t it?

Boohoo has always had competition, there’s nothing new there. It’s competition includes retailers like Primark, Quiz, New Look, and many others.

There is a lot of hype surrounding Shein, but what do you think will happen to them when they IPO?

My prediction is that their SP will do well, like THG, then be attacked by short selling hedge funds as well as governments. We are already seeing comments about slave Labour, manipulating the import rules, etc. So I suspect that their moment in the sun will be short lived.

The other mistake that people make is believing that this market is a commodity, like oil or corn. They are in fact differentiated products, brands with their own fan bases and ambassadors. There has never been a clothing retailer anywhere in the world that operated as a monopoly.

My money is on a turnaround when economic conditions improve. I’ve no idea where your money is? But if you are neither short nor long I wonder why you spend so much time trying to persuade people to sell their holdings?

Boohoo is a niche retailer, being online only, and the sector is cyclical. That means that it’s performance will fluctuate over time, with much poorer performance when the economy is struggling, and much better performance as the economy improves. That’s normal.

But some “normal” is different for different retailers depending on the unique economic circumstances of the time period in question. Online fashion retailers have been hit harder than most post pandemic … crippling supply chain issues, high inflation, rising interest rates and consumer spend slowdown. As they have also been investing massively on property, distribution centres, and new brands, all of this has had a crushing impact on profitability and cash flows. If it wasn’t for bad luck, they wouldn’t have any luck at all.

So no surprise that they have been targeted by hedge funds, and that the current commentary is decidedly gloomy.

Important to note that cycles eventually turn, and the companies that flourish tend to be the ones that invested through the most difficult of times. If that scenario arises with Boohoo then I would expect to see a huge multibag in the future.

Uncle-Doug

Reasons for trolling shareholders on a bulletin board:

1) you have a massive undeclared short and you want to encourage selling, using psychological ploys to unnerve readers.

2) you are being paid well by an interested party to unnerve retail shareholders.

3) you enjoy trying to make people feel bad about their investment choices, so target boards of heavily shorted shares , and try to get strangers to crystallise losses.

I don’t approve of 1) and 2) but can least understand that there is an underlying motive. If the reason is 3) then your dealing with someone with mental health issues.

West … maybe we are being a bit too hard on Pedro?

He doesn’t have a declared interest in Boohoo (short or long) yet he sacrifices his life by spending day and night on here to help out strangers on a bulletin board, by encouraging them to sell their holdings? And he doesn’t benefit in any way! A life dedicated to the service of others.

Jeremy P. There was an analyst downgrade by Exane? That’s an excuse to push the SP down further.

Whenever Boo SP goes north you’ll get a news article or analyst commentary to counter any positive news. Many times the articles are a re-hash of news that’s already out there.

In the City Boy book that was published a while back the author (ex analyst) explained that a negative analyst rating could be pushed out to help out a hedge fund client … resulting in more business their way. That’s why I don’t pay much attention to them.

Too much emphasis on the daily SP moves and not enough on the business. News about new investors will not maintain a SP rise as long as the economic backdrop remains poor. There is no good reason for shorters to disappear, that will only come after a period of sustained positive performance and a favourable economic backdrop.

Anyone long Boo is going to have to be very very patient. Retail is a cyclical sector and online is a special niche sub sector. It will recover at some point, probably when we all least expect it.