Member Info for alex1621

The key is to arrest the slump in sales and get back to sales growth. The main positive from yesterday was the improved margins, the main negative the reduced forward guidance on sales … so that’s what needs to be fixed.

I don’t believe shorts closed today. With high interest rates and the cost of living starting to bite the consumer will continue to have a rough time. You’d need to have some blow out results to scare them off. Also, I think that there are many shorters hovering under the disclosure level, so the tracker doesn’t tell the full story.

My best guess is that one or two large buyers came through in the afternoon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another RNS from Frasers.

We will know soon.

Eventually sales have to come through, if they keep falling they will hammer profitability. So at some time in the next year or so we need to see a reversal and return to sales growth.

Quite a remarkable close today. The update showed some progress on margins but there’s no getting away from the miss on revenue forecasts and the lower guidance for FY2024.

Perhaps Mike Ashley has been buying again? We will soon find out.

The Times send a morning update pre market to subscribers, touching on some RNS.

Interestingly, they stated EBITDA ... "fell to £31.3m, down from £35.5m last year, but higher than the £23.5m City analysts had forecast".

I wasn't aware of consensus from City analysts ... so despite lower revenues, this looks like a significant beat to expectations ... as it is 33% higher than analyst forecasts.

A miss on revenue, down overall 17%, outside the 10%-15% forecast. Is that also down to poor July/August ... we shall see from the conference call?

Adj EBITDA of 31.3m is lower than the Peel Hunt forecast of £34m, but the margin of 4.3% is in line with forecast, and a positive result.

Guidance going forward lower. Revenues now forecast down 12-17%, not 10-15%.

Guidance going forward lower. Adj EBITDA now forecast £58-£70m, not £69-£78m

US warehouse, stock reduction, etc all positive.

Boohoo have made progress, but not as much as they had forecast.

I read that Sir Paul Marshall of Marshall Wace was one of the bidders for the Telegraph Group. In the same article it said that Ken Griffen of Citadel was contributing to the funding. Hedge funds don’t work independently, they work as a gang. And on a poorly regulated market like AIM they can do what they like. As long as the economy is struggling there is no reason to pull back on @ short.

If I had unlimited resources and borrowed every stock available I could crash the share price, whatever the update. They only clear off when the evidence of a recovery is overwhelming or when the company is taken off the market. And even if we see a positive update they’ll still walk the SP down later … and will only stop when the buying action becomes overwhelming. But when companies in this situation turn, the move is dramatic.

Southcoast - precisely. Not the actions of a company struggling to survive.

I seem to have triggered an avalanche of trolls … with my marginally optimistic outlook? All I see is green boxes, as I’ve no interest in polluting my head with the thoughts of people who spend night and day on here, despite claiming to not have an interest, either short or long.

I suppose we will know tomorrow whether Umar’s purchase was based on any knowledge about trading performance. Another point, seldom mentioned, why would a struggling retailer spend millions on a stake in Revolution Beauty if it were struggling to reach its targets? Most would conserve cash until better times arrive.

I don’t expect great results, but I would hope to see them meet or beat expectations.

The Times - Monday

The Week Ahead column, a few lines on Boohoo update:

“… expected to post another damp set of results …”

I recall similar commentary last time around. Peel Hunt quoted on poor ASOS sales July and August … and reading across to Boohoo. ASOS numbers in the update before last were poorer than expected … but Boohoo were slightly better than expected. So a read across between the two may not be valid.

I suppose if the company are predicting a fall in sales of 10-15% then any improvement on that would be viewed as a success.

All I can see is a lot of green boxes.

I knew that post would trigger a few non-investors ... their life is this board.

I’m surprised not to read a negative press article about Boohoo prior to the next update? That’s been the normal pattern of events.

I suppose there’s always tomorrow?

Uncle_Doug … thanks to the wonders of Filter I don’t have to look at the musings of trolls.

The problem with idiots is that they don’t know they are one.

Agree PDS … the economic backdrop is still poor, but as every month goes by lower and lower inflation will eventually lead us into a period where interest rates have to fall. Wage rises are already beginning to be in line with inflation so that impacts the consumer positively. A poor Summer impacting sales is not a sustainable trend, and these events go both ways at times, with surprise upsides.

I’m not sure how long it will take but economies eventually turnaround and power forward. Perhaps the end of war in Ukraine will be the catalyst, I don’t know?

Woke up later today and the first thing I read was from an update email that the Times sends out after markets open with the first sentence “… ASOS has warned …” so I expected a severe reaction today.

Clearly poor summer weather has hit sales but improvements in stock levels and profitability have calmed markets. It looks like there strategy is working, and poor weather impacting sales is transitory. So no huge moves today.

Am I right in thinking that the ASOS last update was deemed poor only for Boo’s later update to be better than expected? I’m not sure how connected the two really are but Boo May also have had a bad weather hit … we will soon find out.

Luckily I don’t have to wade through the dross that pollutes this board. All I see is a lovely row of green boxes.

I’d recommend the Filter tab above to anyone who wants to avoid interacting with frauds.

T4G - anyone who has read this board over the last 6 months knows that Pedro is simply trolling the space, his/her motive is unknown. Could PP1 and Pedro be the same person?

Bro why not simply Filter? Your constant back and forth is simply providing them both with a platform. Why feed trolls?

I think everyone would agree that anything said on here has zero impact on the outcome of our investment, so why engage with them? Let them all howl at the moon.

SavvyInvestor … my thoughts too. They will wait until Shein IPO and then it will be relentlessly attacked by hedge funds and regulators. The anti-China rhetoric is coming from both the Democrats and the GOP, so it doesn’t matter who is running the Government.

Two points about Shein:

1. Around the world the tax loopholes they exploit will close.

2. When they IPO the share price will soar for a few months … then the hedge fund shorts will be drip feeding negative stories about slave Labour, etc …. Like a turbo charged repeat of what happened to the Hut Group. Regulators will do the rest.

Select "Filters" in the tab above and enter Peoplepower1 ... simples!

I'll add a few more eventually. If someone swamps a bulletin board with endless dross it is no more than they deserve.