Member Info for Aldebaran

So if it is the CLN only holding it back, fine. The day that us addressed and it will be you would expect these shares to gap open much like point biopharma did and then continue to fly with it going NT NT NT.

Meanwhile some numpties think they can just invest on the home straight as if it's that simple haha

They would have done that with netflix, Microsoft monster energy etc..

You don't get a running commentary on commercials they just happen. It will happen here

A reminder that sales of AVA6K for SGC are estimated to be more than twice Avacta's current market cap by 2030. This PL calculate equals 20.3p equivalent to our share price based off just a 20% chance of success.

How realistic is that chance of success given we are already seeing PFS knocked out the park, coupled with minimal side effects and 91% disease control rate in an indication which has no standard off care?

Applying even an 80% chance of success gets us to an 80p valuation which is still conservative. And 2030? I don't think so. Accelerated approval will come for this.

Even though all the above is mega mega conservative you can expect at least 4x sales of avak6 for SGC = £1Bn valuation. Tip of the ice berg.

This is insanely undervalued. It's beyond absurd

I'll be supposed if 6103 gets in the clinic as read across from ava6000 backed by 4yrs of data plus data from 3996 derisks it massively. Avacta will get a TO offer out the blue this year which is a shame because if we were to get a partnership deal for say STS we could fund 6103 into P2 ourselves and get even more for a TO.

Sadly it's just too good to be held by a minnow like avacta and it does need to be rolled out to patience ASAP.

so it'll get sold this year with tnbc p1b data.

Hopefully some of the fudsters are still on the sidelines trying to save a penny on there entry price will miss out on what should be extraordinary gains

Who gets up at 6am and first thing they do is post on a bulletin bored for a share they're not interested in. Not just a quick post either but a massive essay.

He wants to try and time the market and buy the absolute bottom and is here to spread fud hoping to flush out cells of weak hands for his own gains. He is dying to invest, avacta lives in his head rent free like a splinter in his mind. He is obsessed lol

What more information are people or specifically big pharma waiting for to prove this works ?

P1a has unequivocally proved safety, proof of concept and MOA.

3996 and 6103 have proven it is repeatable and capable of working with multiple warheads

P1b is already showing efficacy with pfs already bettered in SGC patients

Animal models for 6103 are amongst the best if not the best pre clinical data out there

What are the chances of success here? It seems pretty much nailed on for me that ava6k will receive accelerated approval from the FDA and off-label use will boom. Realistically avacta should be billing many multiples of there market cap in the not to distant future. If they get to that point they'll not need big pharma to progress 6103 or any other pdc's and will become a direct threat to them.

Next couple of RNS's will confirm Coris sold and II onboarded.

Solid plans for NASDAQ listing and a partnership deal as those under NDA are seeing data we aren't and we're already seeing PFS knocked out the park in salivary gland cancer (which has no standard of care).

I suspect we may also see RNS for attendance at ASCO and even with heights share dump, the kind of data we're releasing now is or should attract a few willing buyers, particularly those with deep pockets.

Excellent ICE

In 8-10 years on that kind of roadmap you're looking at 1000x upside from here.

Insane wealth to be had for those willing/able to wait.

Avacta won't get anywhere near that though as BP will snap it up once p1b data has proven 6k conclusively on TNBC. Either a TO comes then or it'll be middle of next year with 6103 in the clinic and be multiples of what a TO this year would be.

Yes agree Ice. Adding human data adds orders of magnitude to the inevitable buyout.

The share count remains relatively low also. Even woth 500m (extra 120m from now) shares in issue a £10bn buyout gets £20 per share and that's cheap with A6103 in human knocking it out the park capable of treating 90% of solid tumours. This next 18 months is going to be epic.

When you say deal on A6103 ice, is that the drug seeing "significant partner interest" ?

If so, you'd have to wonder how more significant that interest is given yesterday's poster presentation at AACR.

It's clearly blockbuster and we can only imagine what is being seen for Ava6k and A6103 and discussed under NDA behind closed doors.

The wording on latest PL note is telling "yet to be signed deal". You just wouldn't write it like that if there weren't something on the table.

I don't honestly think there has been a better time with a better entry price and risk to reward profile than now. Amazing opportunity

Within 18 months from now. The longer it goes the more data and higher the price. We are at risk of a low ball offer this year. Low ball being 10x from here but can't see that getting through or another big pharma allowing it without making a counter offer. Ultimately, a buyout is inevitable timing is not a sure thing only opinion based on data and historic precedents and the fact BP are running into extreme patent cliffs. Dyor pal rather than lumping into something like you don't understand and hoping yo make a quick buck based if advice from a stranger (me) on a bulletin bored

Aceandeights

Look at the TAM (total addressable market) then apply a chance of success and even being conservative you quickly arrive at some eye watering numbers. In a bidding war scenario where multiple big pharma want us then really who knows where we end up. £XXBn with A6103 data in human is what I'm expecting

Not the language in recent PL note also about "yet to be signed" deal. It'll come out the blue. Avacta haven't turned down money from HNWI for nothing.

Once that red dot appears you can expect this to gap open God knows how high and then go NT to buy in any volume. It's like a coiled spring

Not surprised given what is being presented to thousands of investors, scientists and pharmaceutical executives at AACR. One main reason people attend these things is to look for the next big thing.

19/21 = 90% tumour destruction rate and mice have higher levels of free fap in the bloodstream. As with ava6000 we should see drug perform better in humans.

P1 starts in Q1 26 and although "just" a safety trial, due to the extremely potent nature of exetecan and the companies ability to enable sustained release plus 10-1 tumour plasma ratio then P1 is nailed on to show efficacy imo. 6103 data already makes avacta a multi billion pounds company

Their modus operandi is to detract from the science and dominate conversation in order to spread FUD for there own gains. Highly recommend everybody sensible ignores them. That's what I do now. Especially when most replies are 15 paragraphs long 😅

This indeed is the modus operandi of big pharma. They don't develop drugs themselves anymore, they outsource that risk and simply pay up for proven assets.

Exetecan and doxorubicin are already well known drugs.

The delivery system has been proven time and time and time again.

Big pharma under pressure to replace patent loss revenue, they'll move quickly before a competitor does. If a competitor gets it then the other BP companies are in a world of trouble as precision takes their market share.

We could see something exceptional here. Which is what the science deserves

If disease has no standard off care and new drug shows 91%disease control rate with much reduced side-effects than other treatments and also patience survive just 3.5months before disease progression experienced but now are seeing AT LEAST 6 months before disease progresses

In the above case how likely is it fda grant accelerated approval?

Risk of obsolescence is and always will be countered by cost. Chemo is cheap. PDC's cost 1/10th of an ADC to produce. Newer treatments are always way more expensive than chemo. Most insurance companies won't absorb this cost and chemo is most widely used drug in the world.

For avacta precision tech to not be used we would need to see a treatment with better efficacy, better safety, improved cost, already widely available with manufacturing and delivery capability infrastructure in place and way longer trials.

This is a moot point for me made by people who are nothing but negative and like to spread FUD. Like thorn this morning claiming half life of ava6k is a problem even thought it's been addressed by the boffins multiple times haha

? There's 4 showing but only 2 released so far