Mangrove short14 Sep 2023 14:06
Insightful post on the other place, which is worth sharing:
'Long term shareholder in PANR, rarely post but follow bbs regularly and wanted to share my insights into the increasing Mangrove short position given shareholder speculation. As some posters have already commented, on this board, the Guild and other sites, I don’t believe Mangrove has any information edge and are taking a general long/short hedge approach to small cap oil and gas UK listed companies. All IMO but my general thinking is as follows:
1. In the information available on Mangrove and elsewhere regarding the background of the principals, it's apparent that the PM that put on this trade is a generalist and not an O&G specialist. The typical hedge fund trader with that kind of background would be a couple years of geology at uni perhaps and then a bunch of years either trading oil stocks and/or bullshttng about them on social media. It’s now painfully obvious that no one at Mangrove did any specialist DD on PANR and it’s very likely that their investment thesis is based solely on following the Peel Hunt/Matt Cooper reasoning, which includes the 'idea' that PANR can go to 0, which in itself is a highly unusual price target to put out to market. Although I notice a high-profile poster on this board has spotted that Peel Hunt are the top bidder for Panr stock and I think he might be onto something. It’s fair to suggest that PH being the main buyer today (and yesterday?) is likely a positive signal.
2. The most useful text from Mangrove's website posted, which I believe has already been posted on this board, was the section on their 'strategies' and how they approach long and short positions respectively. In short, there is nothing remarkable here. Mangrove are a completely conventional, event driven, equity long-short New York hedge fund that does pairs/spread trading and looks for cheap/expensive names with catalysts. They have a decent merger/arb book and have done some SPACs but are a generalist, vanilla hedge fund of which the strategies they employ have been done by the masses for the last 25 years. Only 2 things stuck out for me in any of their marketing material, and they were both in the explanation of some of the things they look for in putting on a short position. Among all the usual blah, blah including fraud, valuation, etc., there was 'forced selling'. This is not a typical catalyst you would expect to see sighted in a sophisticated hedge fund strategy profile, and it is quite instructive because of that. It has become uneconomic for mid-to-large brokers to conduct in-depth research into small cap companies, with MIFID II in the post Brexit environment, resulting in firms being more vulnerable to re-ratings. This has become a significant cause of redemptions, of which we are seeing large amounts in the UK. Firms are having to sell their holdings in x number of small cap companies to cover their redemptions (forced selling). Andy Brough of Schroders Specia