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i must admit, 36.8%, you had me fooled - i didn’t have you down for the fake one's chief apologist. i've mentioned the poor company you keep on this board before and you see 'old chap', it's always a bit of a giveaway. while i'm about it, the fact that you offer nothing of any intellectual substance to this board is now apparent to all. a bit like your fake board chum, don't you think?
another rather long-winded essay from BS. all supposition and insinuation of course as per. i'll be brief as it doesn’t merit much. essentially what BS is asking us to believe is that Tosca buying another 1% of the company and taking their holding to 75% is other than good news, which it clearly is (good news that is). you can boil down what he says to his introduction (the rest is just padding to make it looks like he knows what he's talking about). he says here: -'why? "something" is heading down the pipeline and it has to be connected with the possible negative resolution of the "transaction" and the ongoing ability of SLE to continue in its current form.' does it? maybe Martin Hughes just likes the story so far and senses the deal is going to happen pretty soon now, so decided to get Tosca to top up at these absurdly low prices. seems plausible - you be the judges. i know what i think.
sheesh don't start that hare chasing again ffs. why won't they take it private? work it out for yourselves why don't you? ok just this once: ignoring for the moment that it isn't Tosca's mo, if Martin Hughes does that once without good reason, he'll never again be able to use the equity markets to raise funds for companies he's invested in. oh and btw, they've just spent god knows how long negotiating an rto with Midwestern with $750m financing which will be too big for AIM. he could have done this at any time with Okoloko's help, instead of negotiating this complex rto. how about engaging the brain for once, before spouting out the first thing that comes into your head?
thanks marineclark. presumably that values san leon's 10.5% holding in OML18 at zero? given the asset is considered to be world class and the secured debt from Midwestern is over £100m, it suggests that we are now significantly undervalued. this is precisely the kind of opportunity, value investors look out for.
thanks bandit for for your considered response. i get your reasons for your (partial) exit. as you say san leon is operating in a difficult country and it also suffers from the volatility and lack of liquidity that comes with AIM. let me make one thing clear about me at the outset: i have nothing against negativity if reasoned but have everything against irrational unsubstantiated insinuation and posters, who don't argue on the facts and who always fail to respond to factual propositions or correction. that clearly does not include you. you will know who i'm talking about here though. san leon has suffered more than its fair share of trolls on this board and the other. most are losers but maybe one or two are trying to manipulate. the other board had a troll called chartrader, thankfully now banned, who might post up to 25 times a day. we have a couple on this board as bad in their own ways. i think anyone who has read what i write over time would acknowledge that i postulate from a reasonably informed viewpoint and am always happy to be fact checked. unlike you, evidently, i remain comfortable with my holding here. they have told us quite a bit about the rto negotiations and the $750m facility as well, just before Xmas, the alternative $50m facility. i know from professional experience that ongoing negotiations of this magnitude are both highly sensitive (thus not easy to talk in much detail about) and can take time. i have always viewed san leon as a value play with a significant upside and, if that takes a bit longer than i originally estimated, then so be it. i have absolutely no problem with anyone who disagrees with my view, provided like they rationalise from a factual base. the strange thing is hardly anyone ever does! one further thing - we are by definition in higher risk territory with an AIM stock operating in Nigeria. so not one for aunt dolly or orphans. some posters complain as if they expected gilt-edged normalcy.
shame bandit. you obviously don't follow the sage of omaha. if you did, you would recognise one of his famous quotes ' The stock market is a device which transfers money from the impatient to the patient.' he also said ' if you're not prepared to own a stock for 10 years, don’t think about owning it for 10 minutes'. i've seen a number of investors do the same as you here. do you mind my asking why you bought this stock in the first place?
'OML18 as an investment has everything going for it - proven oil resources - shallow wells'
well quite remarkable for once BS - you actually got one thing right. wonders never cease. as for the rest i'm afraid it's the usual delusional drivel that we've become accustomed to over time. do you really imagine for one moment that Jite Okoloko and Oisin have been negotiating some kind of fantasy finance with not only Afreximbank but also Shell who are part of this syndicated facility for $750m? of course you don't - you just made that up because you're a troll. if what you suggest were true, it would involve a remarkable fraudulent conspiracy involving all the aforementioned parties as well as our nomad and almost certainly martin hughes. no it's time to grow up BS - you've overplayed your hand. and what the heck's all that guff about the nigerian currency and the port harcourt refinery? you haven't been keeping up have you BS? Shell are part of the lending syndicate because what they're really interested in is the take-off deal for all OML18 oil with san leon. that means they buy all our crude off the FSO and ship it to the global market. oh and by the way they pay in bucks not the local stuff. so sorry it's back of the class again BS and, as that's still year 1 kindergarten, possibly a little worrying don't you think?
don't know if you saw my comments on the other board but, to keep it brief here, i reckon things might actually be pretty close now and the slight delay is more to do with the new lender of the $50m wanting to come on board one way or another as a reasonably significant shareholder.
indeed, POORS, why would or should he? being so close to a deal with his back already covered, OF is not above playing games of poker/chess or brinkmanship. at one point the rns makes a point of saying that in the BoD's view the 2 facilities are mutually exclusive although this possibly conflicts with the earlier comments that it has 'delayed utilising the facility as it believes that ADDITIONAL or ALTERNATIVE financing might be available on terms that may be better aligned with the Company's overall strategic and financing objectives.'
so today we've had an update which confirms we currently have a $50m facility in place and that there is likely a better deal, which can be concluded and and available for draw down early in the new year and the market thinks that's bad news? seriously? people also seem to have missed the positivity of the language around completion of midwestern's reorganisation this says that 'the MLPL Loan will be extinguished following the Midwestern Reorganisation'. given how cautious nomads are in the present climate and would naturally be around the negotiated $750m facility, that's hardly conditional language.
Muddy Waters is currently leading a vicious short attack, supported by other short funds, on a british e+p company that is based on deliberate disinformation by a number (10 or so) of trolls posting on various boards and social media including twitter. this has also, remarkably, included an article in well known broadsheet by an associate business editor, who has had a previous inappropriate connection with one of the short funds. the whole attack is clearly orchestrated and almost certainly illegal. so far the attack has failed in its agenda, principally because the company’s data is so strong and this is supported by the two leading hydrocarbons consultancies. also the company is about to announce results from its recent well and all the indications are that it's got a blockbuster. when they announce, anytime now, we will witness an almighty short squeeze. i don't think the san leon trolls are anything like as sophisticated nor capable of mounting this level of attack, even assuming they are short in the first place. i posted the link out of general interest and as a reminder that deliberate posting of false information on a company is not only defamatory but illegal.
interesting piece here about the US Justice Department investigation into Carson Block who runs Muddy Waters, an American short fund for suspected coordinated manipulative trading. as you can see this invovled the use of an FBI search warrant.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/federal-prosecutors-probing-short-sellers-wsj-2022-02-16/
neat post by Philby on the other board:
'Malcy says: It will come as no surprise that due to the complexity of the deal that there has been a further delay in completion. I expect that when it does get closed it will not only transform SLE but shareholders will be on the receiving end of massive returns, the patient will indeed be rewarded, this is no time to bottle out.'
hTTps://www.malcysblog.com/2022/12/flash-blog-genel-san-leon-zephyr-sdx-rockhopper/