..not be the best beer. i leave that to others better qualified. but i can tell you, sam, that far and away the worst predicshun ever on this board was 9p. despite incessant boasting of his successes as a 'tradur', i think we all know that, outside the professional market, traders tend to fail and particularly ones who take disastrous short positions. and let's face it- he ain't a professional! :)
really excellent presentation. remarkably understated and professional, underscoring the now relaxed confidence of all the presenters. definitely the best so far - for the first time for me a sense dawning that we really have got a simply massive and hugely valuable high quality oil system on our hands here. i simply daren't begin to imagine the true value of it all, as any time you adjust any of the mathematical variables eg the recovery factor or OIP or $ per barrel value in the ground (and it looks like they all keep just getting bigger as we progress) it just blows my calculator with, if i didn’t know better, phantasmagorical numbers.
delighted for you, Theosus. sadly many who post here are not holders, having sold at a loss (like stephen54321) and feel the need to use this board to loadshed their emotional pain (kind of boring). my point was really about your apparent agreement with huxldhour's rather dim-witted observation that a pre revenue o&g company was not declaring regular dividends. get the frustration you feel but, as i explained in some detail a few days ago, not sure what San Leon can do about it. whilst i seem to get the usual ad hominem style garbage, few address the factual points i have made (kind of disappointing). the intellectual rigour of discussion on this board remains at a low ebb.
Theosus - i assume like all of us you bought this as a non revenue value play? nonetheless it declared a special dividend a couple of years ago as you point out. so i'm not quite sure what your beef is? the value play is of course the future production potential from this world-class oilfield, if they can eliminate oil losses through commissioning the new ACOES and then develop the field up to 100,000 bopd. or maybe like stephen54321 you're a disgruntled former loser and now non holder in this stock?
i suppose i'm no longer surprised by the levels of naivety (displayed so publically) by some posters on these boards. qf is right of course it doesn't make any difference. the only downside is that these posters then clutter up the boards with all kinds of nonsense, as they throw their rattles out of their prams.
one poster even suggested recently that nothing takes this long! deary me.
and then of course they address liability and no surprises here: San Leon in the dock again.
it probably won't do any good but i'll try anyway. the whole structure of this multi hundred million dollars and multi-faceted set of linked transactions pivets around Eroton. San Leon has just over a 39% interest in Eroton. so, while Eroton is controlled by friends of San Leon, clearly San Leon isn't in the driver's seat. one linchpin to this deal (there are more than one by the way) is the so called 'Proposed Eroton Transaction' whereby Eroton acquires an additional 18% of OML18 from 3rd party holders (importantly including Sahara). and to achieve this it needs to complete on its new reserve- based borrowing facilities with the syndicate led by Afreximbank (this is the much vaunted $750m - 'the Proposed Eroton Debt Facilities'). and in order to do that it has to close new offtake arrangements from the FSO (i'm guessing with Shell, who, if i'm correct, therefore will also be part of the lending syndicate). and in order for that to happen ELI has to demonstrate the new barging arrangements to the FSO. so, as can be seen, the complexity of this RTO deal is in its dependency on a load of other things happening, let alone no doubt a few squillion regulatory consents and cps. deals like these can (in grown-up world) and do regularly take this long and longer. anyhow to those concerned, please do keep throwing your toys out and in the direction of San Leon, as i'm sure you feel a whole lot better when you do. but qf was right - it won't actually make any difference
the existing Nembe Creek pipeline is just laid through mangrove swamp, where visibility is down to metres making theft relatively easy. modern ACOES systems in the Niger Delta are laid submerged in the open river channels before exiting out into open sea and come with fibre optic detection systems. this makes theft difficult and detection easy and fast. high speed river launches (typically armed) can reach any attempted breach in minutes.
BS 'you have a mental block on the reality of what is actually delaying the development of OML18'
no mental block here just boredom at seeing your continuing and pathetic attempts to diss our share with old hat news. the only thing that's relevant to me is the commissioning of the new dedicated pipeline. you and the other trolls claim you don't think it will happen. and that's the difference between us since, albeit later than advertised, i do. period.
oh i don't think so, BS. you are quite the master dissembler. you conveniently forgot to mention that NNPC were the state oil company, which by Nigerian law takes the majority interest in all oil licences. you were trying to suggest (horror of horrors) that uniquely san leon had managed to pick bad partners in OML18 and moreover that NNPC issues had only just emerged. bad luck as both are false insinuations. whether you deliberately seek to mislead or you're just bad at this sort of thing doesn’t overly bother me. but i will continue to be around to correct your false insinuations. (that goes for the other trolls as well.)
oh i don't think so, BS. you are quite the master dissembler. you conveniently forgot to mention that NNPC were the state oil company, which by Nigerian law takes the majority interest in all oil licences. you were trying to suggest (horror of horrors) that uniquely san leon had managed to pick bad partners in OML18 and moreover that NNPC issueshad . bad luck
'one would have thought they were squeaky clean, but apparently not'
DYOR because BS won't be doing it for you. the poor fellow must have lived a sheltered life (and he should never have gone in for stock investing!). NNPC is the Nigerian state oil company and as such takes the majority interest in all oil licences. it accounts for ~75% of federal revenues in Nigeria and has been a cesspool of corruption for years. in 2011 the Nigerian Govt commissioned KPMG to report on corruption in the organisation. some way from 'squeaky clean' then BS? nor is this some new phenomenon, as our ill-informed reporter suggests, nor is Nigeria about to become a failed state. like many places in the world where business opportunities abound, life sort of carries on despite pervasive corruption. as i say DYOR and do not to listen to the idiotic ramblings of a self-confessed stockmarket loser.
thanks indeed iceberg. telemachus is one of the outstanding technical posters on these boards and as well as being a significant shareholder he is clearly a highly experienced oil guy (i guess a petrophysicist or similar).
oh my CJ you're a philosopher as well as a poor stock investor? that's quite a combination - have you considered the possibility that they may be related in some way? more important though is your failure ever to address the factual reality postulated by me and others on this board or to appreciate that you now face a wall of credibility of russian proportions.
oh dear oh dear CJ and friends - so many questions and so few answers. let me help you, since you are clearly troubled by big corporate finance - you seriously think Afreximbank and Shell would agree to a syndicated facility of $750m, if they weren't completely satisfied with the asset value of OML18 or that it wasn't capable of delivering a revenue stream sufficient to support that? this may be West Africa but Timbuktu it ain't. and you really kid yourselves that Martin Hughes, who owns 72% of San Leon today, knows less about this stuff than CJ and his long-suffering me2 abuse buddy on this board, BS? jeez no wonder you guys are serial losers at stock investing. april fools can't come around quick enough this year.
on reflection, Sam, even knowledge of fertiliser businesses requires some business acumen and financial knowhow, which let's face it self-evidently aren't his strong suits. btw you reminded me of the Afreximbank/ Shell syndicated facility of $750m for Eroton - wasn't CJ going to write to them to tell them he'd spotted what they'd all missed in their dd - that OML18 has no revenue!! i wonder if he ever got a reply? you might have thought Martin Hughes would have spotted that as well?