Member Info for Alaric

imagine if you like, sam, you're a Nigerian investor here. and let's face it there are already a few and we hope many more in the future, not least of course Jite Okoloko, who is a major interest holder in san leon. and some of these guys will speak and write bona fide west african pidgin (nb. visit BBC pidgin service to see the difference). imagine how offensive it must be to come on this board and find a complete phony taking the mick out of your lingua franca?

dear oh dear BS - you've gotten out of your depth here. am not sure you understand even the basics of this deal. eg. you stated above with your usual bombast ''if .. SLE is successful in completing the transaction we will as a larger shareholder of an OML18 operation have to carry the burden of repaying the large $750m bank loan - the locals in their usual way can just "refuse" to pay ... whereas SLE can be pursued through the courts.' what on god's earth is that supposed to mean? when the rto closes Midwestern (jite okoloko etc) will become the major shareholder in SLE so wherever the company is registered or listed it will kind of be considered 'local'. SLE will then have a 98% interest in OML18 operator Eroton, who will have benefit of the $750m facility with the Afreximbank syndication. yes if SLE/ Eroton default on the terms of the facility, it is possible that legal action could follow but who are the mysterious locals, you refer to, who will refuse to pay? back of the class again BS and if i were you i'd keep my head down this time. sheesh..

boy, even by your utterly inept batting standards, BS, that one went through to the keeper pretty rapido - talk about played and missed:). so to spell it out for the 'slower' boys at the back of the class, my point about timing was zilch to do with Western Africa. this as i've explained before is a complex structured deal with many moving parts. it is backed by $750m syndicated facility. if no pipe had been laid, as you appear to suggest, it is unlikely that Afreximbank would have issued a term sheet. so BS you need to go to the back of the class now and not put your hand up again to avoid further derision from your classmates. also get an off games chitty from matron so we won't have to watch any more dismal batting performances.

"We believe that OML 18 is a world class oil and gas asset. Our plans to further enhance our involvement in this asset, via the Potential Transaction, have the potential to be very significant. A huge amount of work has been carried out and a great deal has been achieved to progress this transaction in the last few months. We now currently expect to publish an admission document in respect of our Potential Transaction in June 2022. This we believe will deliver a transformational deal to the Company which will put San Leon in a very strong position as a significant player in West Africa with the potential to deliver considerable future value to all our stakeholders. We look forward to providing further updates in due course."

it is clear that the precise timing for the final pieces of this giant jigsaw to fall into place is out of san leon's hands. equally that there is now a quiet air of confident expectation of the looming close.

sam - i see that our specialist board 'tradUr' has spotted that you and both have a interest in PANR. he believes in so doing he has shown us up and insinuates we are related in some (unhealthy) way. in commenting like this he unwittingly exposes himself to ridicule. any serious value investor or pro trader in o&g small caps has been all over PANR during the last 12 months. in this time it has gone from a low of 26p to a high of 152p, recorded on 12 April (i'll leave him to work out the % increase). it is now a unicorn at over £1bn market cap and has way to go - defo not a 9p shorter :). but surely a pure pidgin speaking hugely successful (well we've only got his word) big shot 'tradUr' would have been on this one himself?

salmon seem to be flying out of the river today, sam, and we're not in May yet. of course 9p was never reached and by the end of the month the SP was over 27p. 3x out sounds expensive to me.

..not be the best beer. i leave that to others better qualified. but i can tell you, sam, that far and away the worst predicshun ever on this board was 9p. despite incessant boasting of his successes as a 'tradur', i think we all know that, outside the professional market, traders tend to fail and particularly ones who take disastrous short positions. and let's face it- he ain't a professional! :)

really excellent presentation. remarkably understated and professional, underscoring the now relaxed confidence of all the presenters. definitely the best so far - for the first time for me a sense dawning that we really have got a simply massive and hugely valuable high quality oil system on our hands here. i simply daren't begin to imagine the true value of it all, as any time you adjust any of the mathematical variables eg the recovery factor or OIP or $ per barrel value in the ground (and it looks like they all keep just getting bigger as we progress) it just blows my calculator with, if i didn’t know better, phantasmagorical numbers.

ha i think it already did! or maybe a cat by any other name?

so what's best method for picking oil stocks would you say - dice, ouija board or pin the tail on the donkey?

well best of british then, Theosus. while luck is helpful, i tend to do as much factual research and analysis as possible

delighted for you, Theosus. sadly many who post here are not holders, having sold at a loss (like stephen54321) and feel the need to use this board to loadshed their emotional pain (kind of boring). my point was really about your apparent agreement with huxldhour's rather dim-witted observation that a pre revenue o&g company was not declaring regular dividends. get the frustration you feel but, as i explained in some detail a few days ago, not sure what San Leon can do about it. whilst i seem to get the usual ad hominem style garbage, few address the factual points i have made (kind of disappointing). the intellectual rigour of discussion on this board remains at a low ebb.

Theosus - i assume like all of us you bought this as a non revenue value play? nonetheless it declared a special dividend a couple of years ago as you point out. so i'm not quite sure what your beef is? the value play is of course the future production potential from this world-class oilfield, if they can eliminate oil losses through commissioning the new ACOES and then develop the field up to 100,000 bopd. or maybe like stephen54321 you're a disgruntled former loser and now non holder in this stock?

i suppose i'm no longer surprised by the levels of naivety (displayed so publically) by some posters on these boards. qf is right of course it doesn't make any difference. the only downside is that these posters then clutter up the boards with all kinds of nonsense, as they throw their rattles out of their prams.
one poster even suggested recently that nothing takes this long! deary me.
and then of course they address liability and no surprises here: San Leon in the dock again.
it probably won't do any good but i'll try anyway. the whole structure of this multi hundred million dollars and multi-faceted set of linked transactions pivets around Eroton. San Leon has just over a 39% interest in Eroton. so, while Eroton is controlled by friends of San Leon, clearly San Leon isn't in the driver's seat. one linchpin to this deal (there are more than one by the way) is the so called 'Proposed Eroton Transaction' whereby Eroton acquires an additional 18% of OML18 from 3rd party holders (importantly including Sahara). and to achieve this it needs to complete on its new reserve- based borrowing facilities with the syndicate led by Afreximbank (this is the much vaunted $750m - 'the Proposed Eroton Debt Facilities'). and in order to do that it has to close new offtake arrangements from the FSO (i'm guessing with Shell, who, if i'm correct, therefore will also be part of the lending syndicate). and in order for that to happen ELI has to demonstrate the new barging arrangements to the FSO. so, as can be seen, the complexity of this RTO deal is in its dependency on a load of other things happening, let alone no doubt a few squillion regulatory consents and cps. deals like these can (in grown-up world) and do regularly take this long and longer. anyhow to those concerned, please do keep throwing your toys out and in the direction of San Leon, as i'm sure you feel a whole lot better when you do. but qf was right - it won't actually make any difference

btw i say the Niger Delta but with high oil prices theft is now a global issue. so this kind of modern pipeline technology is pretty well standard now.

the existing Nembe Creek pipeline is just laid through mangrove swamp, where visibility is down to metres making theft relatively easy. modern ACOES systems in the Niger Delta are laid submerged in the open river channels before exiting out into open sea and come with fibre optic detection systems. this makes theft difficult and detection easy and fast. high speed river launches (typically armed) can reach any attempted breach in minutes.

BS 'you have a mental block on the reality of what is actually delaying the development of OML18'
no mental block here just boredom at seeing your continuing and pathetic attempts to diss our share with old hat news. the only thing that's relevant to me is the commissioning of the new dedicated pipeline. you and the other trolls claim you don't think it will happen. and that's the difference between us since, albeit later than advertised, i do. period.

oh i don't think so, BS. you are quite the master dissembler. you conveniently forgot to mention that NNPC were the state oil company, which by Nigerian law takes the majority interest in all oil licences. you were trying to suggest (horror of horrors) that uniquely san leon had managed to pick bad partners in OML18 and moreover that NNPC issues had only just emerged. bad luck as both are false insinuations. whether you deliberately seek to mislead or you're just bad at this sort of thing doesn’t overly bother me. but i will continue to be around to correct your false insinuations. (that goes for the other trolls as well.)

oh i don't think so, BS. you are quite the master dissembler. you conveniently forgot to mention that NNPC were the state oil company, which by Nigerian law takes the majority interest in all oil licences. you were trying to suggest (horror of horrors) that uniquely san leon had managed to pick bad partners in OML18 and moreover that NNPC issueshad . bad luck

'one would have thought they were squeaky clean, but apparently not'
DYOR because BS won't be doing it for you. the poor fellow must have lived a sheltered life (and he should never have gone in for stock investing!). NNPC is the Nigerian state oil company and as such takes the majority interest in all oil licences. it accounts for ~75% of federal revenues in Nigeria and has been a cesspool of corruption for years. in 2011 the Nigerian Govt commissioned KPMG to report on corruption in the organisation. some way from 'squeaky clean' then BS? nor is this some new phenomenon, as our ill-informed reporter suggests, nor is Nigeria about to become a failed state. like many places in the world where business opportunities abound, life sort of carries on despite pervasive corruption. as i say DYOR and do not to listen to the idiotic ramblings of a self-confessed stockmarket loser.