Member Info for Alan2017

Peter - Also note you chose not to post the next snippet from Lucan where he said:

@1 min 42 secs - GL: “we’ve moved away from being a pure exploration [inaudible] into a more diversified oil and gas proaction company.” WRONG again George….Angus have had 2 producing oil fields at Lidsey / Brockham since before IPO.

Again, my previous point corrects Lucan.

Peterashbeck - Sorry to say your conclusion is wrong.

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Angus-Energy-IPO-Investor-Presentation.pdf

Slide 4: Says Production for both Lidsey and Brockam.
Slide 5: Established low cost producer
Slide 6: Increase Production and Recovery from Existing Assets AND Grow Portfolio Through Select Onshore Development and Appraisal Projects

Slide 17: Established low cost producer and Onshore focused UK qualified operator

It doesn't say Angus is an Explorer......oh and there are a bountiful amount of interview where Vonk says Angus is not an Explorer.

I hope that clarifies that point Peter.

Takeyourbet - I've asked you politely to share your detailed calculations with how you have priced Angus SP at 30pence in 5 years time, but you choose not to? I am very surprised, as I thought you would be wanting to share such positive data with all and sundry.

You do realise by not posting your calculations then readers will naturally assume the 30pence is just a hopeful feeling ...which we are all told not to do when investing.

Takeyourbets - How can I say your share price prediction of 30pence in 5 years is correct when yo haven't posted your calculations to back this up.

Post on your calculations on here with your reasoning and expected MCAP and then everyone can review the numbers.

Takeyourbets - thats great you have your calcs, then it will be very easy to post on here with your reasoning and expected MCAP.

Look forward to reviewing the numbers.

Rastuss - I remember you asking a question not long ago regarding how much homey was in the bank and did that include the Lidsey / Brockham abandonment costs that are ring fenced.

Well on the Angus Energy Investor Forum it seems that it is included in the quoted cash at bank. I think this is an important question that should be asked on the Forum to clarify as of now how much cash funds Angus has without the £650,000 segregated reserve for abandonment costs.

"At the same date cash at bank and in hand on 27th February 2020 was £3.5 m of which £650,000 is segregated reserving for eventual abandonment at Brockham and Lidsey. Most of the balance of £2.85 million free cash is being held to meet significant capital expenditure commitments at Saltfleetby and, to a lesser extent, at Balcombe."

Takeyourbets - can you please show your calculations on how you reach a very high SP regarding your comment "Personally I see 30p easy in 5 years which is a great long term investment for me."

Without calculations then it can only be assumed you are hoping it will get to 30p.

Rastuss / gkb47 - do you remember the investor conference Lucan did back in May......perhaps this is the reason Angus hasn't got planning for Balcombe. Why was Lucan chosen again?

@32:02 - “Chalk and cheese versus some of the densely populated areas in the South” This comment aimed out the 2 Councils wont go down well.

@34:08 - “Nice to work in an area where they just don't want charity shops in the high street” This is not the comment to be making when you have had a planning application rejected by the previously oil friendly West Sussex Council. If Angus hadn’t have closed the testing permit, then you would not need to be submitting a new application as confirmed by yourself.

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-conference-call-audio-recording-202005/

"Our original presentation in summer 2019 did use the 10 year average of 50 pence but the more complete and independent Competent Persons Report in March of this year used forward curves from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) of 35p, 39p, and 41p respectively."

So now Angus are finally using uptodate numbers rather than December 2019 figures .

And I've been using an average of 40pence/therm for my calculations when everyone else was using 50pence/therm....

https://www.erce.energy/graph/uk-natural-gas-futures-curve

I thin someone should write to the Investor Forum and tell Lucan that the Saltfleetby CPR uses the National Balancing Point Monthly Forward Curve forecast, which everyone on here has been using.

https://www.erce.energy/graph/uk-natural-gas-futures-curve

He would have been better doing more research.....just like doing more research to prevent:

1. Drilling from the wrong well,
2. Giving up the production licence at Brockham;
3. Giving up the testing permit at Balcombe.

Angus should be a strong cash flow generating company already being an Oil and Gas Producer.....but sadly we were mis-informed or....

Oh and the Shell CEO took a 51.4% pay cut in 2019 due to certain targets not being met. Why doesn't George Lucan do the same?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/12/royal-dutch-shells-ceo-took-a-514-pay-cut-in-2019.aspx

Ocelot - interesting how the question was constructed with a negative bias?

“Board posters continue to mislead investors implying that it is reasonable to forecast on the basis of these exceptionally low prices”

Well you’ve been the person posting the ERCE gas futures graph which believes Corvid is just a blip. on a frequent basis and that is what this board has used as the future gas price. I’ve used an average of 40pence/therm and its still a loss.

Odd how the questioner didn’t mention either the effect of Corvid or the use of the UK Natural Gas - NBP Future Curve Chart?!?!

https://www.erce.energy/graph/uk-natural-gas-futures-curve

Moving on through the Angus response:

“…and that the Majors are somehow insulated from these prices by huge cash surpluses?”

Lets see what I wrote in response to Lucans interview:

@12min 37sec - GL: “If we were to sit back and do our analysis and Shell and Total and everybody else were to do their analysis on 15pence/therm, we’d all be bust.”

I wrote “Shell and all the other companies having producing assets around the world, which make them multi-national companies and intern…means they have cashflow coming in and huge cash reserves. What does Angus have? Nothing…actually quite the opposite as Lidsey will make a loss in 2020, considering they only scrapped a profit in 2019 with average price of $63. A wage bill of £1 million for 2019…I hate to see what the bill will be in 2020 with all the consultants brought in…don’t forget the ex-interns as well.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjFrIeyS1OM&feature=youtu.be

Well again what I wrote is correct…perhaps George would be better off not being a director of multiple companies. As I said, “Shell and all the other companies having producing assets around the world, which make them multi-national companies and intern…means they have cashflow coming in and huge cash reserves.”

I’ll explain and I’m sure someone can post this on the Angus Forum:

Lets take Shell.

$2.9 BILLION profit for Q1 in 2020
$20 BILLION of cash on hand, with $10 BILLION of undrawn credit lines.

So Shell would survive at these low gas prices as they would just shut the wells in and live off the profits made from their other divisions incising oil around the world.

On the other hand Angus has nothing. Lidsey will make a loss in 2020, Brockham / Balcombe isn’t making money and they are looking for second hand valves now for Saltfleetby.

How much Cash reserve and undrawn credit can Angus rely on?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/shell-q1-2020-results.html

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202003/royal-dutch-shell-costs-slashed-to-protect-cash

Ocelot - you do realise your comment "...find the funds to finance its acquisition " means raising more money, intern print more shares and intern....stifle the share price even more.

Thats been the Angus model since February 2017.....since IPO they have raised £25 million and produced what in terms of Investor revenue?

Rastuss - we may be seeing the oilfield version of a Zimbabwean currency fluctuation. Just these 2 placings under Lucans tenure cost £302,500 ....

15thFeb 2019 Equity Placing
`£2.2 MILLION PLACING INCLDING £200,000 FEE

TO PAY OFF £1.5 YA/RIVERFORT LOAN

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/ANGS-RNS-WH-Ireland.pdf

25th October 2019 - Potential Decommissioning Liabilities and Associated Funding

£102,500 CLN fee

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Potential-Decommissioning-Liabilities-and-Associated-Funding.pdf

Ocelot - maybe they will find a 50pence bargain for 2021...its does seem to have a cycle to it with Angus

2016/2017 - Lidsey & Brockham are company makers
2018 - Balcombe is a company maker
2019 - Saltfleetby is a company maker

Raised £5 million for Holmwood - where is that money?
Raised £5 million for Balcombe and gave £4 million to Cuadrilla (good way to get most of your money back from the well)...will Angus ever get that money back after giving up the testing permit? Which ex-intern dropped that clanger? Will Cuadrilla be happy with Angus for potentially jeopardising the project?

Hopefully no interested parties watched his interview with Malcy.

Rastuss - I posted your question i this thread, so its easier to follow.

I was leaning towards the:

Angus Drilled from the wrong well after spending total of circa £1.6 million
Unable to produce from it (even though it was drilled to produce from the Portland (?)

So what happens in any other walk of life when you don't honour the contract? Like I say this is a very good question to ask the investor forum on the Angus website to get to the bottom of.

Otherwise we'll all be going to the Cleaners with Granny.

Alan: is this what she £400,000 in bad debt was about? If their partners are strapped for cash as well, they won’t be getting their money back, will they? I wonder what the total is. Angus can’t afford to sub its partners any more, so there must be considerable uncertainty re the future drilling of any of their oil prospects, presumably? Saltfleetby had better work! I hope they're all having terrific fun (was that the term?) in Lincolnshire, as they were on their earlier explorations.

Ocelot - It's July and they still haven't even installed a portaloo at the site, so Angus is referring to a timetable, but fail to let their investors see it? Why would that be?

Grimrip - surely Lucan should be saying we have this £296,000 coming to us which helps us out with the budget.....or is the silence because they aren't going to recoup it?!?!

Very strange either way wouldn't you say?

Rastuss -

Page 32 of the AIM Angus Energy Plc AIM Admission Document, 7th November 2016

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Angus-Energy-AIM-Admission-Document-7.11.2016.pdf

Regarding the money raised to drill 2 wells in 2017...there is a very interesting note:

The above strategy is reliant on the Angus Licence Partners funding their share of the associated costs at both Brockham and Lidsey. Should all Angus Licence Partners fail to meet their funding requirements at Brockham, then the Company expects to be able to fund 100 per cent. of the Brockham costs but the drilling at Lidsey may need to be deferred whilst alternative funding can be found.

I wonder if Alba and the other partners actually paid their full share of the Brockham well considering Angus (As Operator) drilled from the wrong well and end up with no production allowed at the site. Would that be grounds for non payment?

Reason I'm wondering and this is surely a very important question to ask the Investor Forum is buried in the Annual Accounts on Page 56

" The Group is in discussions to recover the full amount due from farmees. The Group has made an allowance for impairment to reflect the potential uncertainty over the recovery of these amounts."

End of 2019 "Amounts due from farmees = £296,000"
Up from £171,000 from 2018.

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Angus-Energy-PLC-Annual-Report-2018-2019.pdf

Rastuss - this slide presentation from March 2019 will interest you as it confirms who set up Angus Energy....

Slide 11 confirms it was the Wonga Man who provided the cash to set up Angus.

Slide 9 is actually quite scary as they have so much fat before Saltfleetby auditions kicked in....no wonder its plus £1 million for the wage bill and that was just for 2019.

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/566796/response/1378014/attach/3/ANGS%2004%20X%20PS%20002%20OGA%20Operator%20Competency%2026032019%20Rev%203%20FH%20REDACTED.PDF.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1