Member Info for Alan2017

Pages 8 and 9 make interesting reading…..seems they are relying on a new sidetrack to get the volumes up, but what was the history of the previous sidetrack? And we know how long it takes to get a rig..

Project Execution
1. First gas is estimated to be between October 1st, 2020 and January 1st, 2021 and this range reflects amongst other the following risks:
* Planning Permission ?
* Approval of the Development Plan by the Oil and Gas Authority ?
* Delay in installation and commissioning of process equipment and a pipeline ?spur ?
* Delay in connection to the National Gas Grid ?
* Problems during start-up of the wells ?
* Offtake agreements ?
2. The ramp up to 10 MMSCFD in Q1/Q2 2021 could be at risk by
* Drilling rig and services availability ?
* Delays incurred during drilling and completing the well ?
* Lower than expected mechanical completion quality ?
3. The project costs may be higher (or lower) than forecast. In particular, the process plant and metering cost estimates on Site B include second-hand equipment skids which may ?
or may not be available to AEWB at the time of procurement. New equipment would be
more expensive.?4. The process plant may not perform to specification.
Exogenous
1. Commodity prices
* The National Balancing Point Forward Curve (NBP) dated 28th February 2020, ?escalated after December 2023 by 2% pa. Realised NBP gas prices may be higher ?or lower. ?
* The discount to National Balancing Point gas price offered by the off taker at ?the National Gas Grid connection point at Theddlethorpe is subject to firm ?quotation. ?
* The Brent Forward Curve dated 28th February 2020, escalated after March 2028 ?by 2% pa. Realised Brent oil prices may be higher or lower. ?
* The discount to Brent of the Condensate Liquids offered by the off taker at the ?refinery is subject to firm quotation. ?
2. Cost Escalation for oilfield services and equipment is assumed to be 2% pa. It may be ?higher or lower. ?
3. The cost of the SF5 horizontal sidetrack is subject to negotiation on hardware, rig hire ?and services rates and mob/demob, and rig performance. ?
4. Surface facilities costs are subject to firm quotations and more detailed engineering. ?
5. Uncertainty over the equity and debt markets. ?
6. Uncertainty over Public Opinion regarding future onshore gas extraction ?

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Reserves-Resources-Valuation-Report-Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Assets-Effective-Date-28th-February-2020-Report-Date-4th-March-2020.pdf

Takeyourbets - surely if one was part of an Action Group ...wouldn't they be called say the Angus Action Group ....and wouldn't that mean if you were against that group taking action ....that would make you the ...AAAG?

And then what follows that?

Pipeline Pigging & Commissioning

Start Date; Start of May 2020
Completion Date: Start of July 2020
2 months

Processing Facilities Design Procurement

Start Date: 3rd Week of January 2020
Completion Date: First week of April 2020
2.5 months

Facilities Installation & Commissioning

Start Date: 3rd week of March 2020
Completion Date: Mid June 2020
2.75 months

PRODUCTION TARGET
Target start up for MAY - AUGUST 2020

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf

I see Angus have just tweeted to award the company to design and construct the pipeline.

"We are pleased to announce that CNG Services Ltd has been appointed principle designer and contractor for the pipeline connection"

Now where does that place the project then? Considering Slide 10 stated

Start Date: Start October 2019
Completion Date: Start May 2020
7 months

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf

gkb47 - actually its even worse...Angus has always managed to stuff up the Environmental application from the days of Brockham onwards .....you would think they would know by now...yet continue to make mistakes.

Balcombe 7 day well test (we still don't know for how many hours minutes they actually flowed) was completed on 2nd October 2018.....and since then all they have managed to do is shoot themselves in both feet by cancelling the test permit....which means you have to start all over again...

It's a sad investors version of snakes and ladders....just as you think you are starting to make progress ............

Cash in the bank for the decommissioning......

Rastuss - firstly I don't know why anyone could accuse you of trying to insinuate "fraudulent accounting" when all you are merely doing is stating the numbers and facts as produced from the company itself. Very odd indeed.

Now getting back to your question....you are quite correct that those numbers have been included in the budget for the overall health of the company, just like the fabled 400bbls production from the Lidsey and Brockham Portland in 2017 was going to make it a company maker with a strong cash flow generator......anyone who chooses to remember facts will also remember that it didn't turn out like that and placings soon occurred....for that General Working Capital fund.

So have Angus learnt their lesson...as they had another one in 2018 when Balcombe was going to be the company maker....sadly that has been a saga in itself due to Angus cancelling the testing permit. Was somebody held accountable for that I wonder?

Just like a household budget you have to plan for outgoings including mortgages, loans and this can't be deferred...except with loans you may be able to renegotiate with higher interest payments. If you have less money coming in (say for instance the revenue from Lidsey 2020 will be far less than £200,000 in 2019 at $63 a barrel (please bear in mind that this is before deductions like trucking of produced water which costs £49/barrel (yes thats Pound Sterling) and lease payments which left them with a small profit in 2019.

I wonder if George still thinks it was a good idea to pay Doriemus £460,000 for their stake in Lidsey? Wouldn't that have been much better spent on say SF for instance? No water injection and £49 per barrel trucking / disposal fee for produced water. It will take 10 years to pay off the $460,000 using 2019 average of $63 a barrel.....

Imagine that £460,000 coupled with rent savings (£300,000) coupled with Directors and Staff taking 20-30% pay cuts (equating to £200-£300,000 a year savings).

Thats over £1 million in savings or another way of thinking about it...it pays the Staff wages plus the office rent plus travel...plus PR fees.

George never did say why the rent shot up from £115,000 (2018) to £410,000 (2019)? Is this the reason Knowe properties has never sold a share since Angus went PLC as they make more money through rent? Page 20 for those who are interested...
Angus have used the Chiswick address since IPO days...so why the 3.5 times increase in 12 months (and no this is separate to the £180,000 that Angus have to pay in Site lease fees).

Counsultancy fees of £400,000….will be interesting to see how much it is now.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/SC055329/filing-history

So Angus received £2.5 million to get to First Gas, yet the CPR states it will cost £2.79 million to get to First Gas....so that means Angus have to find £290,000.

And still no update on Angus website since 9th July

Rastuss - regarding how companies work...old school email and phone calls. The odd face to face meeting with a break for Kit Kat is easily compensated with the likes of Zoom. Only a visit to a factory or the site would have been delayed in the early days. But considering Angus is still in the planning phase .....no issue as long as

"We are a young company, but we are an Oil and Gas Production company, OGA approved operator. Which means that we drilled HH well before that as a manager of other companies who drilled other wells. We know how to produce, how to stick to all the regulations, how to keep costs under control without reverting to a lot of different service companies. We do it in-house. We’re a lean organisation."

Now where did we hear that before?

Rastuss - Perhaps Angus have hired the excellent team that built Berlins new airport or maybe an ex British Rail planner.

As you state Rastuss you are merely quoting what Angus and Lucan have been telling the market....one does wonder why a team with 80 years experience would issue an unachievable timetable. It was obvious in December 2019 when I said the earliest for First Gas would be end go Q4 and now I will still stick to my February / March 2020.

Reviewing the 2019 timetable doesn't make pleasant reading for milestones.

Slide #10

NTS Detailed Design, Equipment Procurement, Construction

Start Date: Mid November 2019
Completion Date: Mid April 2020
5 months

Yet Angus RNS paints a different picture

“…the National Grid has agreed to carry out the works required for the DESIGN and CONSTRUCTION of National Grid Facilities at Theddlethorpe. Long lead items have been ordered and construction remains in line with our project schedule.”

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Opertaions-update.pdf

Pipeline Detailed Design + Construction/Laying

Start Date: Start October 2019
Completion Date: Start May 2020
7 months

Well we can remove the majority of the Design phase timings, yet still have to go through HSE approval whichh Lucan said by September…..
Pipeline Pigging & Commissioning

Start Date; Start of May 2020
Completion Date: Start of July 2020
2 months

Processing Facilities Design Procurement

Start Date: 3rd Week of January 2020
Completion Date: First week of April 2020
2.5 months

Facilities Installation & Commissioning

Start Date: 3rd week of March 2020
Completion Date: Mid June 2020
2.75 months

PRODUCTION TARGET
Target start up for MAY - AUGUST 2020

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf

gkb47 - This interview still makes me wonder the logic?

@15min 43secs - GL: IT’S NOT OIL TOURISM
ITS NOT OIL PICK UP YOUR LAUNDRY
ITS NOT OIL VISIT YOUR GRANDMOTHER
ITS OIL EXPLORATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjFrIeyS1OM&feature=youtu.be

gkb47 - simple paperwork has been Angus Achilles heel from before IPO days

Rastuss - we have to take the Angus litmus test and see where investors rank it on anticipation using LSE, Twitter and stock price.

This tells the real picture, one that certain posters can't hide. Zero interest...Twitter is quieter than the Brockham site.

Lucans' response to aBrockham question throws up more questions.

"We will resume extraction from the Portland but only with the assistance of water injection which is subject to Environment Agency approvals. It is difficult to determine how the reservoir will perform with water injection but the mere ability to re-inject produced water will substantially improve the economics of the field and reduce the environmental impact of trucking the produced water miles for disposal which, given its salinity, involves burning it! As to timing, we have spent some time bringing the older wells and the site into good order during this lull, and we expect to resume production as soon as EA permit conditions allow but at any rate this year."

If Angus haven't already and fail to continue drilling a groundwater monitoring well(s) and ensure wellbore integrity ...the EA will continue to refuse, just like they did with the EA permit application in 2018.

"As to timing, we have spent some time bringing the older wells and the site into good order during this lull," well Angus did that in all of 2016 and first 3 months of 2017 to get the site up to EA standards ....only to fail the inspection and have 8 conditions to rectify.

Do you know that Angus kept no records of where the membrane had been laid?

PS - last RNS I see on Angus site is dated 9th July 2020...no sign of the repayment RNS?

Rastuss - an RNS for Julys payment? I don't see it on the Angus website

Rastuss - did they pay off their monthly Wonga loan this month? I haven't seen any update to say they have.

Brockham was only producing about 35bbls a day for all the partners before they took their spoils.

Brockham is important as it costs £49 a bbl to truck the water from Brockham and more importantly Lidsey and get it burnt. No injector well = Lidsey made small profit in 2019 and no profit in 2020 with current oil prices.

Seems up till now Angus have not wanted to drill Groundwater monitoring wells at Brockham which is one of the big stumbling blocks for the EA. Now why wouldn't they want to do that?

Angus overheads are high and with commitments ....and its not even August yet.

Does the Brockham site now have groundwater monitoring boreholes now?

We shall have to see what happens in the next 4-6 weeks with announcements....but the noise today is very telling.

"Angus Energy is an independent onshore oil and gas DEVELOPMENT company focused on advancing its portfolio of licensed UK assets."
http://www.angusenergy.co.uk

I think you should spend some more time researching, as the Brockham sidetrack was drilled as a Portland PRODUCER

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Angus-Energy-AIM-Admission-Document-7.11.2016.pdf

Page 18 - "The Company has now raised £3.5 million, conditional on Admission, principally to fund its share of the costs of a phased DEVELPOPMENT programme on the Brockham and Lidsey Licences which is expected to bring.....average gross production from Brockham Portland reservoir."

Page 21 - "The Group intends to drill another side-track into the Portland reservoir from which it expects incremental PRODUCTION."

Its a pity Peter likes to edit peoples posts.....so lets review the facts by listening to Lucan and what I posted:

@39 secs - GL: “Angus floated back in 2016, with a range of assets down in Kent..” WRONG. Really George…Kent? I think you need to check your facts there. Angus has never had assets in Kent

“And very much with a view to exploiting the Kimmeridge reservoir across the Weald Basin”. WRONG again, as they were an UK Onshore producer

Slide 4 of IPO Presentation shows Lucan is WRONG on both counts.

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Angus-Energy-IPO-Investor-Presentation.pdf

@1min 11secs - GL: “one of the decisions I took was to diversify slightly away from exploration and into production and last year we acquired a formerly producing gas asset, which was once the largest onshore UK gas field and that had been stranded.” Once again Lucan is WRONG, as Angus have been promoted from Day 1 as not being an Exploration company, but a Producer / Development Company, hence the title of the above presentation

“Proven UK Operator, Producer and Developer
IPO INVESTOR PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 2016”

@1 min 42 secs - GL: “we’ve moved away from being a pure exploration [inaudible] into a more diversified oil and gas proaction company.” WRONG again George….Angus have had 2 producing oil fields at Lidsey / Brockham since before IPO.

Are Lidsey and Brockham PEDL licences? No...they are PL...hence why they are a Production and Development company...after all they have been producing from Brockham for 30 years.
An oil company starts off when it has no assets....Its an exploration company...then they strike black gold and then they go into...appraisal.......and then fingers crossed ...they bring the asset onto production ....hence forth they are known as a PRODUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT COMPANY....

http://www.nex.jx-group.co.jp/english/project/index.html

Peter - my apologies ...there was no link attached

http://www.nex.jx-group.co.jp/english/project/index.html

Takeyourbets - your comment is very misleading, as I am posting the data / links as published by Angus Energy. I note you can't produce your calculations...

"what is your motive behind posting negative false information here daily?"

Peter - I hope this nice link with pictures will do the trick and you can see that ...yes Angus Energy is a Production and Development company...after all they have been producing from Brockham for 30 years.

Where in the IPO does it say Angus has assets in Kent? Lucan seems to think they did.....WRONG

And please show me in the IPO where Angus is a pure exploration company as Lucan said...again WRONG

@1 min 42 secs - GL: “we’ve moved away from being a pure exploration [inaudible] into a more diversified oil and gas proaction company.”

Peter - why don't we listen to Paul Vonk

@01min 57sec

Interviewer: “You’re not an exploration company are you?”

PV: “No we’re not an exploration company. We are really a management team that focuses on, on managing the production assets. So what we go after are appraisal and development,

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/595ce82c1d174a1cec8454cb/angus-energy-company-overview

So that corrects that.

And Peter, how can you use a pure exploration company as George Lucan stated when at IPO Angus was purely a Production company?!?!

@1 min 42 secs - GL: “we’ve moved away from being a pure exploration [inaudible] into a more diversified oil and gas proaction company.” WRONG again George….Angus have had 2 producing oil fields at Lidsey / Brockham since before IPO.

You do appreciate how an oil company starts off when it has no assets....Its an exploration company...then they strike black gold and then they go into...appraisal.......and then fingers crossed ...they bring the asset onto production ....hence forth they are known as a PRODUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT COMPANY....

Again that clarifies that ..