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31st Nov RNS:
"We are pleased to note that the drilling preparations are all going smoothly and that the Operator has confirmed the rig handover will occur in a couple of weeks. The drilling of the Buffalo-10 well is a major event for Advance Energy and we look forward to providing further updates at the appropriate operational milestones."
22nd Dec RNS:
"As previously noted, the drilling of this well is transformational to Advance Energy, representing a material value catalyst for the Company and our shareholders, and we are excited to report today's operational milestone. We look forward to providing further updates as the drilling program progresses."
So I am assuming Spud will be one of the milestones to be RNS'd?
Then completion of the 'attic' depth?.
Followed by TD and timelines for logs?.
With little to discuss until Spud, thought I'd pass this by you guys:
Note the difference in wording:
CVN:
In the success case, the Buffalo-10 well will be suspended with an unperforated liner, cemented across the reservoir in order for the well to be re-entered and completed for production at a future date.
ADV:
Once the oil column encountered has been determined from wireline logging, the Buffalo-10 well will likely be suspended, ready for re-entry as a production well for the future Buffalo field re-development, assuming commerciality is proven.
May be being pedantic, 'likely' ? I thought it was always planned to be suspended and a revisit.
On a separate note, a tad disappointed for not being able to build on yesterday's rise. I guess the x-mas bonus brigade have moved on!. Let's see what the next milestone brings in a week's time.
GL.
Thank you. Appreciated. GL.
Ericb, can you provide a link to your source of that news please?. I've been keeping tabs on CVN website and others, but nothing!. TIA.
Thank you EricB.
Very detailed. Worth keeping a copy for milestones.
Our rns will follow and boom hopefully!
IMO, that's when the herd will arrive!
Was hoping we'd make the leader board today to gain attention. Happy to see the compound effect with an RNS!
@DPYC:
"Why announce rig mobilisation when you can RNS spud couple days after."
Because company committed to it in the last (13th Dec) RNS:
"A further update will be provided upon mobilisation of the drilling rig to the Buffalo Project location."
Martian Zongs sounds better than Crypto currency. Let me know when I can trade those!
:0)
ps., plenty Zongs to be made @ ADV spud.
I must admit I am pleasantly surprised, but delighted by the hawkeyed observations from the regulars here! Well done guys.
I had feared that JSE were buying a bit more time based on the last rns. Glad they are done.
Let's hope J107 has a safe journey and an easier time at B10.
GL all.
C'mon HMS, you're bringing it upon yourself with comments like:
"Adv I’ve kinda given up on tbh".
I thought we cleared that anomaly! Nearly there fella! GL.
Just to re-iterate the importance of Skua 10 to JSE - from their RNS:
"However, the Skua-10 workover operation is now practically complete, with the Montara subsea wells currently shut in to facilitate the rigging down and hook-up of the Skua-10 well and safe departure of the rig. Prior to this shutdown, group production averaged 20,000 boe/d over a five day period and is expected to increase further once both of the Skua wells are brought back onstream"
It wouldn't surprise me if the 1st announcement comes from JSE. Last of their workovers (Skua 10) has been the hold up, not only for the rig but to their production. They may be keen to report successful completion. CNV should rns soon after and us to echo the wording!
Be nice to know we've cleared all 3rd party hurdles and Thunderbirds are Go!
GL.
ps., thanks to all for for their ship watch reports. Who's doing the last shift?!
Hi HMS,
We know historically how it's panned out relying on JSE to finish their work. Also remember, the last JSE rns was one of their anticipated 'operational update' and they had no choice but to insert a paragraph re. Skua workovers and the rig status.
I am not counting my chickens until I see a physical movement of the rig.
"Skua-10 workover operation is now practically complete".... read it as you will btu it is NOT complete. They've fed us duff info at least twice before. FWIW, imo, the reason we have languished at these levels is that we've been played by some party privvy to the JSE delays and shorting or feeding the market. Positive side to it being that traders have been seen off (hopefully) and that rig move will see a +ve reaction to the SP.
IMO, GL.
EG, Excellent reply and thank you for the detailed explanations. Great education. GL.
EnergyGeo, Thanks for the cost/timing analyses.
So at that rate, we should complete this appraisal within budget and CNV do get a free carry as they'd have been liable for all costs above $20mill.
Having identified (from Valaris data) that the rig day rate is max $98K, I am surprised (due mainly through lack of knowledge) with your figure of c $300K/day. No idea what manpower and services are thrown in by Valaris @ 98K?. I'll bow to your experience as I guess logistically off-shore projects are inherently more expensive. We'll probably be drilling during the 'double/quadruple' seasonal manpower rate though!
My only annoyance in this whole 'delay' saga is with JSE. They had issues at Montara (side track), then Skua 11 (tree), followed by Skua 10 (components), drilled in that order. WTF! Skua 11 and 10 more or less added another month to the delay. They were two separate workovers, though nearby. Yet they rns'd the issues when 'practically complete'. Kept everyone in the dark and speculating. Poor imo.
Delighted though with the clarification. 'Practically' - well, let's see what that means.
GL
@ Piltick:
You're not far off with the cost per day estimate imo. I checked recently and JU-107 day rate is between $68K and $98K, with other costs (as you stated in you post). Valaris do have a number of conditions attached to their pricing structure and I hope we are looked upon favourably due to the 'other operator' f@rting about!
The other thing I should mention is that at that cost/day projection, and seeing we put up $20 mill and CNV only foot the bill if costs exceed that budget, it is in CNV's interest to get the appraisal drill completed pronto.
BHPP and Nexen drills back in c 2000 took about a month per well. Seeing this is a revisit and the technology must have advanced since, I am confident we will complete comfortably within our predicted time frame. Also being sandstone reservoir(s) hopefully it will be plain sailing.
Nice abstract read here:
https://onepetro.org/SPEAPOG/proceedings-abstract/02APOGCE/All-02APOGCE/SPE-77918-MS/136325
My only issue with (yet another delay) is that there are a lot of sub-contractors on stand-by for this drill (as stated in the last rns). Approaching festive time, in all honesty, imo, late December is pretty much implying January. So i will just switch off for a while and enjoy the impending lock down!
Same here Amin. I was committed to ride this until the drill results and nothing has changed. However, I suspect the hot money looking to make Christmas bonus on this will now depart to pastures new. I may take advantage of the dip.
I am slightly miffed with this news as up until the last rns, we had only been talking about the approximate timing of handover but saying expected within 2 weeks to now again vague "late December" is a little disconcerting. Whoever made the 2 week statement (JSE/Valaris) need to be held accountable. I'd be wanting a discount on the near $80K per day hire cost for the delayed rig.
Also I don't understand why this continual delay has not impacted JSE's SP, nor have they issued an rns on their Skua workovers.
@danlowence,
Company's line on this - exact words:
"To ease concerns - the JV pay nothing with regards to the rig until it is released by the current operator so no real impact in terms of cost implications."
Not sure whether JSE are liable for penalties.
Simple request via email will hopefully get you the answers. GL.