Member Info for AJ1409

Thank you Energy Geo and Piltick for filling some gaps in our knowledge.

I was curious about the Marine watch gang and had wondered about the activity around the rig!

Just waiting for the Black & Decker to do it's bit .
Wonder if Leslie will be there to give us a tweet!

GL all.

:Blubay:
"Surely confirmation of spud is market sensitive information and requires an RNS?"

We expect an rns, but the earliest they can inform the market is tomorrow morning?!!

However, not sure if Aus market was open y'day as CVN should RNS before us.

@ Bladey

I am not familiar with the likely depth drilled per day. But seeing they are drilling mostly a sandstone strata, do you envisage any issues and what your estimate timing for TD?....150m/day reasonable?

Hey HMS, you must have had the kids over x-mas as I note your auto-correct issue appears to have been resolved! :0)

Looking forward to the Spud confirmation in the morning. The other (open) markets have been heading north and ftse future are +ve, so hoping for a nice wrap up to the year end.

Also hoping the 3500m hole is drilled trouble-free and on schedule.
GL.

31st Nov RNS:
"We are pleased to note that the drilling preparations are all going smoothly and that the Operator has confirmed the rig handover will occur in a couple of weeks. The drilling of the Buffalo-10 well is a major event for Advance Energy and we look forward to providing further updates at the appropriate operational milestones."

22nd Dec RNS:
"As previously noted, the drilling of this well is transformational to Advance Energy, representing a material value catalyst for the Company and our shareholders, and we are excited to report today's operational milestone. We look forward to providing further updates as the drilling program progresses."

So I am assuming Spud will be one of the milestones to be RNS'd?
Then completion of the 'attic' depth?.
Followed by TD and timelines for logs?.

With little to discuss until Spud, thought I'd pass this by you guys:

Note the difference in wording:

CVN:
In the success case, the Buffalo-10 well will be suspended with an unperforated liner, cemented across the reservoir in order for the well to be re-entered and completed for production at a future date.

ADV:
Once the oil column encountered has been determined from wireline logging, the Buffalo-10 well will likely be suspended, ready for re-entry as a production well for the future Buffalo field re-development, assuming commerciality is proven.

May be being pedantic, 'likely' ? I thought it was always planned to be suspended and a revisit.

On a separate note, a tad disappointed for not being able to build on yesterday's rise. I guess the x-mas bonus brigade have moved on!. Let's see what the next milestone brings in a week's time.
GL.

Thank you. Appreciated. GL.

Ericb, can you provide a link to your source of that news please?. I've been keeping tabs on CVN website and others, but nothing!. TIA.

Thank you EricB.

Very detailed. Worth keeping a copy for milestones.

Our rns will follow and boom hopefully!

IMO, that's when the herd will arrive!

Was hoping we'd make the leader board today to gain attention. Happy to see the compound effect with an RNS!

@DPYC:

"Why announce rig mobilisation when you can RNS spud couple days after."

Because company committed to it in the last (13th Dec) RNS:

"A further update will be provided upon mobilisation of the drilling rig to the Buffalo Project location."

Martian Zongs sounds better than Crypto currency. Let me know when I can trade those!
:0)

ps., plenty Zongs to be made @ ADV spud.

I must admit I am pleasantly surprised, but delighted by the hawkeyed observations from the regulars here! Well done guys.

I had feared that JSE were buying a bit more time based on the last rns. Glad they are done.

Let's hope J107 has a safe journey and an easier time at B10.
GL all.

C'mon HMS, you're bringing it upon yourself with comments like:
"Adv I’ve kinda given up on tbh".

I thought we cleared that anomaly! Nearly there fella! GL.

Just to re-iterate the importance of Skua 10 to JSE - from their RNS:

"However, the Skua-10 workover operation is now practically complete, with the Montara subsea wells currently shut in to facilitate the rigging down and hook-up of the Skua-10 well and safe departure of the rig. Prior to this shutdown, group production averaged 20,000 boe/d over a five day period and is expected to increase further once both of the Skua wells are brought back onstream"

It wouldn't surprise me if the 1st announcement comes from JSE. Last of their workovers (Skua 10) has been the hold up, not only for the rig but to their production. They may be keen to report successful completion. CNV should rns soon after and us to echo the wording!

Be nice to know we've cleared all 3rd party hurdles and Thunderbirds are Go!
GL.

ps., thanks to all for for their ship watch reports. Who's doing the last shift?!

Hi HMS,

We know historically how it's panned out relying on JSE to finish their work. Also remember, the last JSE rns was one of their anticipated 'operational update' and they had no choice but to insert a paragraph re. Skua workovers and the rig status.

I am not counting my chickens until I see a physical movement of the rig.

"Skua-10 workover operation is now practically complete".... read it as you will btu it is NOT complete. They've fed us duff info at least twice before. FWIW, imo, the reason we have languished at these levels is that we've been played by some party privvy to the JSE delays and shorting or feeding the market. Positive side to it being that traders have been seen off (hopefully) and that rig move will see a +ve reaction to the SP.

IMO, GL.

EG, Excellent reply and thank you for the detailed explanations. Great education. GL.

EnergyGeo, Thanks for the cost/timing analyses.

So at that rate, we should complete this appraisal within budget and CNV do get a free carry as they'd have been liable for all costs above $20mill.

Having identified (from Valaris data) that the rig day rate is max $98K, I am surprised (due mainly through lack of knowledge) with your figure of c $300K/day. No idea what manpower and services are thrown in by Valaris @ 98K?. I'll bow to your experience as I guess logistically off-shore projects are inherently more expensive. We'll probably be drilling during the 'double/quadruple' seasonal manpower rate though!

My only annoyance in this whole 'delay' saga is with JSE. They had issues at Montara (side track), then Skua 11 (tree), followed by Skua 10 (components), drilled in that order. WTF! Skua 11 and 10 more or less added another month to the delay. They were two separate workovers, though nearby. Yet they rns'd the issues when 'practically complete'. Kept everyone in the dark and speculating. Poor imo.

Delighted though with the clarification. 'Practically' - well, let's see what that means.
GL