Member Info for AJ1409

@ Piltick:

You're not far off with the cost per day estimate imo. I checked recently and JU-107 day rate is between $68K and $98K, with other costs (as you stated in you post). Valaris do have a number of conditions attached to their pricing structure and I hope we are looked upon favourably due to the 'other operator' f@rting about!

The other thing I should mention is that at that cost/day projection, and seeing we put up $20 mill and CNV only foot the bill if costs exceed that budget, it is in CNV's interest to get the appraisal drill completed pronto.

BHPP and Nexen drills back in c 2000 took about a month per well. Seeing this is a revisit and the technology must have advanced since, I am confident we will complete comfortably within our predicted time frame. Also being sandstone reservoir(s) hopefully it will be plain sailing.

Nice abstract read here:
https://onepetro.org/SPEAPOG/proceedings-abstract/02APOGCE/All-02APOGCE/SPE-77918-MS/136325

My only issue with (yet another delay) is that there are a lot of sub-contractors on stand-by for this drill (as stated in the last rns). Approaching festive time, in all honesty, imo, late December is pretty much implying January. So i will just switch off for a while and enjoy the impending lock down!

Same here Amin. I was committed to ride this until the drill results and nothing has changed. However, I suspect the hot money looking to make Christmas bonus on this will now depart to pastures new. I may take advantage of the dip.

I am slightly miffed with this news as up until the last rns, we had only been talking about the approximate timing of handover but saying expected within 2 weeks to now again vague "late December" is a little disconcerting. Whoever made the 2 week statement (JSE/Valaris) need to be held accountable. I'd be wanting a discount on the near $80K per day hire cost for the delayed rig.

Also I don't understand why this continual delay has not impacted JSE's SP, nor have they issued an rns on their Skua workovers.

@danlowence,

Company's line on this - exact words:

"To ease concerns - the JV pay nothing with regards to the rig until it is released by the current operator so no real impact in terms of cost implications."

Not sure whether JSE are liable for penalties.

Simple request via email will hopefully get you the answers. GL.

Am not in JSE, but decided to do some digging and came up with the following re. Valaris JU-107:

17th Sept.
The Group took the Valaris 107 drilling rig on hire on 14 June 2021 and commenced drilling the H6 development well on 28 June 2021. During the initial attempt to drill the horizontal section in the well, mechanical issues with downhole equipment resulted in a deviation from the planned well path, which necessitated a sidetrack. The sidetrack was successful, resulting in a circa 1,200 metre horizontal section in the reservoir, encountering good quality oil-bearing sands. The well is currently in the completions phase before being tied in to the Montara infrastructure, after which the rig will proceed with the Skua 11 and 10 workovers.

28th Sept.
Montara H6 well successfully brought onstream

The Valaris 107 rig has made the short move to the Skua-10 and Skua-11 workover location, and operations on Skua-11 have now commenced.

Then in a media article, came across:

The Skua-10 and Skua-11 workovers are estimated to take 21 and 31 days each, respectively, while drilling of the Montara H6 well is estimated to take 80 days.

No further update from JSE re. Skua 10 and 11. Their SH's must be getting a little restless!

So clearly nothing ADV could've done about it. 21 + 31 days @ Skua would've been end Nov. These things often don't go to plan, so here we are awaiting rig handover!

Worth a mention, the rig is contracted to another operator for April 2022 and our work will take about 30 days to complete. Plenty headroom to have a good play with it!

DYOR, GL.

Just wanted to share the re-assuring answers I received from IR to the questions I raised regarding the RNS comment "the last remaining regulatory approvals expected prior to receipt of the rig".

Q) What regulatory approvals are you waiting for?
Standard HSE and Rig Import approvals.

Q) Are these approval mandatory before drilling can commence?
Yes - mandatory for East Timor and not expecting any issues.

Q) Since this program has been continually delayed, why were these approvals not obtained earlier.
The delay is solely due to the rig not yet being released by the current operator. The approvals have not impacted the well timing and will be forthcoming when the rig is handed over.

The approvals are granted at the time of rig handover.

Apologies if some of you had already known the answers, but may help others.

As a side note, well impressed with the guy at IR (@ Buchanan) - courteous, efficient and keen to take future questions.
GL.

Not sure what you are going on about Jez! No one a criticising the frequency of news, nor the long term vision.

No more from me. I rarely post and was just taking up a point with HMS.

GL.

Jez, I am in buddy, fully invested and happy to ride whatever it takes. I am not 'moaning' about communication. But not living in denial about the point being raised by HMS. I have already said, 3 parties are controlling the time lines and Leslie must also be uneasy about giving interviews where he created a lot of euphoria about end Nov drill. Check the excitement on the BB around the time of the interview. I have no issues with the so called delays, but the market will judge us on meeting time lines. I am comfortable riding this phase.

@HMS
In general I am in agreement with you on the vague communication from the company and with Peterkin's (your Peterson?!) background and experience I'd have expected better. Agree with your past points that number of timelines have been missed. I am also intrigued as to why the final permit has not already been received. I tracked past rns's and the only reference to a permit I could find was back in May 21 seeking government approval for drilling by CNV.

Now re the newsflow, there are currently 3 parties in the frame - JSE, CNV and ADV - in that very order. So, that somewhat 'excuses' Leslie for the quoted timelines. You would note no mention of company names but 'present operator' as no one wants to rock the metaphorical boat.

From each company's view point, apart from the costs of extended lease of rig, JSE want their work completed, albeit delayed. CNV, whilst keen to commence B10 drilling are not overly pressurised as they are on a free carry (farm out agreement), except they will be responsible for any costs above £20 mill. The onus is therefore on ADV (LP) to be pushing for answers. He can only go by what CNV tells him, hence the identical rns as CNV - re. 2 weeks.

Pretty much out of four hands, but I agree that Leslie needs to protect his and ADV's early reputation and either demand better comms from CNV or someone needs to come clean (even JSE) what the hold up is.

I am committed here based on my research and added my final batch y'day. I intend to ride it now beyond the drill and like others wants to see the rig floating in the right direction 'soon'.

DYOR, GL.

A measly top up of 29,666 pour moi... GL.

Pulling a leg - or 4 - so to speak!
:0>

...well the partners had to be seen to be singing from the same sheet!. It is pretty much a joint rns, even neither mentioning who the 'previous operator' is - no Sh*t sherlock!....to avoid a blame game. No mention of an overrun to the existing rig contract!

Anyone in JSE?....expecting an rns?. Just curious.

Good question and something that is brushed aside by most. I have emailed the company to seek clarification.

I think it was Oiler that brought it up yesterday and asked why this had not been received last month or even before, seeing we were aiming for end Nov spud? Is this the real hold up? If the rig had been mobilised a fortnight ago, does this permit (lack of) prevents us from spudding?

Pleased to see us holding our own in the general malaise.

Two weeks - could be either side, but glass half full says more likely before as JSE would be mindful of their costs.

So. "A further update will be provided upon mobilisation of the drilling rig to the Buffalo Project location."... roll on.

Not necessarily wait 'til mid January for results. CVN's rns clearly goes on to say "We will provide updates as drilling progresses". pretty sure Leslie also said something along those lines. So mid Dec. spud, could get an update by x-mas. GL.

I'd expect our RNS to echo that in the morning. Not sure it will do much for the SP as it is still waiting on rig being released. Surprised JSE have no comments to make.

CVN RNS - BUffalo

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02459773-6A1065897?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Interesting reading all the views on timing, Spud delay, interpretation of boss's interview etc.

One thing that is just as relevant is the whole project has been planned around rig availability and Spud. Several contractors are either employed or are on standby. Also, who might be awaiting the rig after our drill. The Gantt chart must be quite complex and lines being moved as each day the rig remains with JSE. Dare I mention the impact of so called 'delays' on costs.

May be he was referring to the 'logs on xmas day' for his fire!

Personally, no panic but would welcome an update from either JSE or ADV.

Whilst it'd be nice to know the number of viewers (unlikely to find out, bar being mentioned as 'very popular'), it's the exposure to the wired audience that matters. The other company holders will no doubt will know a bit more about our prospects/[;ans and may take punt. Very happy and re-assured with the presentation. The important thing now is to get the rig mobilisation expedited.

Thanks cc12.