Member Info for AIMtodeath

confusion in para - I would up the mining quantity and yr output more due to the simplified nature of this ore and likely to want to get close to nameplate and use price as the conservative nature of the market. Your hammering the mine/production capabilities quite a bit? That refers to Moz not the small bit about Portugal that preceded that paragraph. And I did see in your inital assumptions on the spreadsheet you have stated the choice to only use 197 vs 450mt, I suppose I was questioning the discount based on the quality and ease of access to the small nuclei they chose to start with and the smaller chance of not being able to meet nameplate. Not the same ore issues Kenmare have.

Part 2 - In fact we won't be mining unless we have 51%, anything less is really about a price value as we make our way to 51% so if you want to price in Moz actually mining we need to consider the 51% as the long term price addition. Of course Oman can only be taken on the initial mine size, but we realistically should see a minimum of another 5Mt (ex target up 30mt!) given drill results to date, but until its in writing we have to go with the very basic unfortunately. Pretty conservative on the grades given the fairly easy target in this initial case. Again with Portugal, what could we have at another mine concession? Keeping it at bear minimum without any commercial finds anywhere else as we have to go on current fact. Its fair to say you have stripped back every facet to the weakest thinkable outcome and still come up with a price well over twice what we are today.

Trisse, Are you scaling back the Moz size? Scoping study states - The mining inventory that forms the basis of the Scoping Study was derived from an optimised pit shell giving a 30 year mine life and comprises 451 million tonnes averaging 6% THM (Indicated and Inferred Resources). Average annual production following ramp - up to a 15 Mtpa mining rate is estimated to be 456,000t of roasted ilmenite and 118,000t of non- magnetic concentrate (rutile and zircon) over an initial mine life of 30 years, which will position the Mutamba project as a globally significant Ilmenite producer. For this scenario it raises the CAPEX from 160 to 220 (contingencies). 197mt to 450mt, Ramp up to 15Mt to happen in 3-5 years not 12 I would say. If you are discounting production size bear in mind this stuff only needs scooped up and is incredibily conservative easy to access high grade ore. I think you do it a dis-service not to assume they will be able to utilise it close to projection. You might say they won't utilise all the inferred, but much more of that will become indicated during DFS stages but again its not hard to reach stuff so I still think they will be able to access most of it without much trouble. The 33% of indicated from 451MT is already 148mt, your only suggesting 50mt of inferred will be likely. Do you only start year 3 for first 2 years being construction and using Final investment decision as time point zero to start counting from? Moz obviously a big project but its a fairly narrow and the build quite honed. Portugal they hope to be mine ready in less than a year, it is pretty basic mining techniques/engineering in the grand scheme of mining requirements as he stated in Swiss presentation, it doesn't get simplier. Its not bespoke builds of new tech. I would up the mining quantity and yr output more due to the simplified nature of this ore and likely to want to get close to nameplate and use price as the conservative nature of the market. Your hammering the mine/production capabilities quite a bit? Are you assuming $1.35 long term GBP weakness? That would quite positive for SAV income as supposed to a conservative position. Is this Brexit related the choice for lower price based on the fall previously? I see the grades are ave volume adjusted for Moz but they don't intend ever mining less than 5% in 30 years with only 1 year at 8% so it must be a fairly level grade %. I would maybe make it a flatter production % due to the simplier nature of this easy reach stuff. 5% actual long term not a bad conservative under performance but due to low stripping ratio they are going to be in the hot stuff the whole time so as long as the ore lives up to the drill results then not much chance for random grade drop offs. DFS further drilling will reduce chance of cold spots in the ore. We are already at 20% in Moz so 10% can be dropped as its hissssttttooorrryyyy ;)

Oh you can buy 100k for 5.5p though..... 50k was at 5.4p exchange price

You can only take the full 5.4p exchange order price. But you can sell at 5.225p Buy order in background needing filled? This must be ready to go up if thats the case, unless the background sells eat up the buy volume. The thing of note during this selling is the BID had the highest volume of shares on it since the 6p range. Often only 50k or 100k maybe 150k at most at 6p, whereas at 5p MMs have had 300k and 250k. MMs have been quite happy to take the sells down here without dropping anymore as I am sure they would just hit buying pressure forcing them back up anyway. At this point they got decent accummulation without too much buying forcing them to move. They will go where they can get volume. Another point of note is that the selling albeit 'forced Beaufort' or 'disgruntled investors' it eventually changes hands to those that are interested in the company's current position and understand the changes and reasons for delays in the original core projects. They understand the changing position and want in and therefore you have a new set of share holdings happy in the path forward to go to the next level. You have to shed some skin every now and again to grow. Of course nothing is perfect and things may change again and they will re-evaluate their position no doubt.

Gold quantities and therefore credits look to be more interesting on block 4 and incorporating into production of that mining area seems the long term plan to me. How much processing do we need to do to the ore body of sellable fieldspar /quartz to pass it on for sale or do the buyers have their own mills etc to process raw material.? So we dig it out, put on lorry and dump it at their doorstep....and come back with some $$$? Long term lithium plant likely to provide a better graded more defined product for more credits?

They don't stop working during Ramadan, maybe the party at the end. Well its draft until its real....when its real we might see things actually being signed. We could be one of the first companies to get a licence under the new law! in 2038.....ha.

Also to note that this law has been underpinned by an international team of advisors on 'best practice'. Nowt to be afraid of a robust and fair mining law. They work harder to get the licences out and you don't f**k up their land mining the resource.

Given the cowboy nature of Chinese firms reported in Moz and now Cameroon, it is fair for a country to want the ability to keep an eye on miners. All very well jumping through the hoops to get licence, then once your mining do what you like....aka Chinese. You would have to have good reason to seize, but if you are abiding by the mining code and sticking to your environmental plan then you would have no need to worry.

I wonder if the Beaufort sells are a bit more visible now, as once again even on positive news sells just keep coming. If not Beaufort forced selling what could they possibly not like about Portugal? Though bit dissappointing not to see any more 90m holes beside hole 65, it looks to be spreading out West the most.

They like a good official meeting..... 10 mins on topic, rest of the time having coffee...haha.

Monday 13.33 cough...cough...haha I didn't provide the link but I did mention the nod of the draft law.....keep up. ;)

You and me both, topped up too soon. However RNS' could have fallen differently and it would be above 6.3p now.... Oman case and point, not expected to drag this much. I do think that Moz delays are pushed along with Oman as its seen as a financier for Moz due to the costs involved in Moz PFS and especially DFS. Big project has big costs naturally. Heck if the 3 targets they tried had repeated anything close to Grandao/Res then 6.3p definitely would have been long gone, but in exploration not all areas will deliver. Grandao seems to have run out of steam to the NW but unknown at the time was the extent to the S and SW. Give with one hand take with another. Its unmistakenly a good project albeit its not the world's best grades or biggest target and those that want to 10 bag in 6 months want to jump on biggest and largest grades in hope, as supposed to good quality with high chance of success and good returns. There will still be selling pressure for the near future I feel, many invested on Oman and Moz and they see that not relevant to them now and maybe not interested in Portugal or see that as next thing to be delayed etc. Beaufort stock issues etc. Come scoping study and 15Mt+ and a wider audience will really sit forward and take note, value and international sized mine with peers valued significantly more.

I think it's wording IB. Approval for submission I read it as, in any case it's not worth starting on one without the other. Alara is no better off, just got to bide time for law to pass. Then we'll see if there are any other genuine reasons for any more delays.

Funny how sincre 2016 they have been talking about speeding up process and new law, blah blah....but it is nearly there now! https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/new-mining-strategy-set-open-door-investment-oman Since that article which mentions SAV..... last few days - MUSCAT: The Majlis Ash�shura on Wednesday ratified the draft Mining Law after a thorough discussion, after which the council members voted on 74 articles of the law. Majlis Ash�shura held its 17th ordinary session of the third annual sitting under the chairmanship of Shaikh Khalid bin Hilal al Maawali, Chairman. Dr Salih bin Said Masan, Chairman of the Economic and Financial Committee, reviewed the draft law before the council. When it gets put into law I suspect things will chug along. Expectation in the market was this would have all happened at least a year ago, but it is what it is, despite any expectational suggestions by Archer, it is hard to point the finger at him for the law not being passed sooner. It must be appreciated that this law will enable the sector to move forward and until then it is stalled until it is ready.

Whilst there is plenty of desire to buy shares directly from the company, lack of open market buying by deep pockets is not offsetting the market issues being faced. It appears Archer is advertising to 'investors/partners/financing' not SP rising small investors buying in open market.

Look likes they might be going up!! The Lithium plays I follow prices for took a bit of a hammering last night in Australia. If they want their lithium fill could migrate to a Portuguese play!!

It is trading inside a yearly range. Since Xmas peaks, you have had international market volatility taking 10 to 20% off overall markets. You have had 30 to 40% drops in lithium shares after supply fear scandals. Trade wars....etc. Tied in with disappoint in Oman hard to believe we would be immune to these market pressures. Don't forget Beaufort issues. They keep dropping the bid even though it's not justified. Taking out the bed and is more buys again today yet drop it they do as long as they keep scaring people they will pick up more shares. They dropped bid after 185k buy!!!! Still 5.15P to sell so why drop from 5.1 to 5p?? Fact Oman will not progress until THEY sort out their mining charter into law. Moz is delayed in part because it will cost money to progress what is a slow burner when it can be used now for an immediate market need of lithium. If Portugal is up and running for end of 2019 it will be paying for a dfs and more at Moz.

4.75 lowest price last year, if we hit that again then you would be discounting Portugal to zero as that was the price before the rise into the year end on good news. I've done all the topping up I can, bit too soon it would seem, but news flow was on track at the time and just has not materialised in positive price action. There has been a lot of market headwinds since the new year for many different reasons. EV REVOLUTION IS HERE! That is a fact, still plenty of room at the table.

Other princesses awake eslewhere for the boys to chase, whilst its snoozeville here. Plenty of hoops to jump through in the Lithium development before its fully game on and other value adds being pushed down the road with delays. However not much needed to ignite the touch paper. Aussie investors more likely to see the value in the Lithium potential, rather than betting the family jewels on the likes of EMH/BCN because they are big.... AUS understands spodumene (15-20Mt) and chinese offtaking. Can get at less than placing, anyone oversubscribing can still get some action. Long term holders still putting money in and yet some people don't believe at this price.....Rich industry investors or you...who's right?