Member Info for AIMtodeath

I was referring to the earlier ones before any comparisons and using $800 sell price that no one else uses currently. I think you are still pricing happily on 17Mt not the 13Mt but that's fine, I'm just super conservative. The profit others mentioned earlier were also pre tax, so take a minimum 30% off that figure. Also consider funding, if there is only so much to go around would you fund a mine cost per tonne under $300 or one knocking on $400? There will be a lot of juniors looking funding in the next 2 years. However KOD Chinese investor might side track that just so they can secure supply, they are probably more interested in the chemical supply and doesn't matter so much the profit margin at this part of the supply chain. Many variables to get to the end goal. KOD share price possible gains are better than others right now but the long term project against peers has thrown up some questions today, BGS twice the resource and much cheaper to process, though share price probably reflects that.

This project has waited for a JORC for a long time, it's an important milestone for sure and something to start comparing with and putting a value on it.

Yes expect $100m that's normal. Plant, equipment, mining vehicles, site construction, pit creation....

It's not smaller, that's what they will mine from optimised pits. KOD optimised pits are currently only 13.2Mt. You can't currently achieve 17Mt as it's too deep or uneconomic to clear the overburden on open pit, is what I read into 'optimised' pit. 1.07 is only part of the number, it's also how much you can recover from it. BGS is only looking at 70% whereas others will have 80% and above, so changes the recoverable tonnage. SAV is looking at 1.3mtpa not 1mpta. SAV is $130 tonne less cost for every tonne sold. Yes, everyone wants another Greenbushes sadly, but after 30k metres of drilling the market did want more here, it might be maiden but it's well drilled maiden. It will be economic and the SP is very low, but that matters not right now, markets punishing this industry, even when prices are well above all their DFS and mine decisions that were already great....

Look at Sayona Mining or Savannah Resources for a start due to size comparisons. You won't get any price economics until KOD have done a scoping study or PFS I am afraid.

Declaration I have shares in Savannah Resources, but I am not here to plug them, just that they have produced a Scoping Study recently and they based it on 14.42mt at 1.07% so you would find that would be comparable on the optimised pit size of 13.2mt if you want price project economics.
Note that SAV is based on $271/tonne cost and $685 FOB.

But you can look into old AJM and Galaxy scoping studies and PFS as well, they all started below 20mt. And they all had FOB prices well below today's prices.

on KOD board.

Pie in the sky calculations for yearly profit and think they can start the mine with just the cost of a processing plant at $14m........If only it was that easy.....

I am not trying to pish on anyones parade, just keeping it real given the figures being thrown around.

Don't get carried away.....

Is also way more than the cost of a plant!

Again check peers for mine start up costs.

Way over estimated I am afraid......its not that simple a calculation. I suggest looking at NPV post tax of other projects of similiar size. That is what you should be making a decision on.

Its 13.2mt for an optimised pit, as I assume the rest is too deep or uneconomical to bother moving the earth so calcs should be done on what you can economically mine in the first instance.

BGS used $666 FOB selling price for 6% spod
SAV used $685 FOB selling price for 6% spod

Using $800 is a little rich and you won't see that in your PFS. BGS is a 2mpta plant.

1.2% lithium oxide needs converted to 6% spodumene before you make calcs

I'm amazed at the KOD board talking like that maiden resource is something to write home about and discussing comparisons with Birimian....not a mention of SAV.
It might be a maiden resource but it is after 30k drilling...... hardly maiden in the respect of drilling actually done. I notice they had to drop the cut off to 0.5% from the 1% they quoted on drill results and still optimised pit barely breaking 13mt.
Interesting BGS FOB price is $666 good to see most potential producers are using prices well below market and yet they show good economics, yet the industry is getting hammered even when prices are significantly still above any prices used for economic investment decisions?!?!?

Desert lion in Namibia sells 2% lepidolite..... If your not producing 6% spodumene then your not safe.

You can't short these shares..... People selling because it's not as big a number as they hoped for, you'd want far more going that deep, that's why it's looking like $400/tonne. Under $300 is considered a healthy cost and only then getting competitive with AUS spodumene producers.

It's only 13.1mt for an optimised pit, it's too deep to get out all of it using open pit. It's also suggested $400/tonne extraction!!!! 50% more than SAV. Took 30k drilling to get that maiden resource. In a two horse race, SAV is without doubt the nag to put your money on. Not in Africa. Far lower costs. Strategic European position. Richer spodumene content. Mining licence update only needed. I don't need to go on. In 2020 there will be one if these 2 companies producing lithium......it will be SAV.

148 holes in Grandao alone. Picture of core being pulled out of a diamond tail hole, with AFP TV camera observing.....

Savannah had visitors from French and German press..... Strategic importance of project to European lithium value chain, receiving increasing recognition.

What I don't get is someone with deeper pockets is buying, yet fookwits still sell.....making it easy for the buyer! Could do with this resource refresh, put some buying pressure into share. I think that not only will he want a meaningful conversion to measured, he will want to bust the 20mt mark whilst he is at it so it's taking a while. Shouldn't stop drill results filtering down though in the meantime. However there will be testing of the limits of the resource and idiots will be disappointed at done drill holes, but it's part of the resource definition.

£12M plus, buys a lot of holes, licence applications, environmental studies, JORCS, feasibility studies.....fundraising money doesn't just dissappear after its raised, it has value, it will be converted into project value over the next year.....3 of them. Deliverable of PFS of MOZ automatically increases our foothold in the project as said before by 75%! Getting Portugal indicated drilled to measured gives market of lithium buyers confidence in the resource and relying on it for contract purposes. We have funds to kick start Oman when....when it arrives. Oman will have a bigger effect on the company than just the project alone, it changes our borrowing capabilities etc. Which may prove very useful in starting Portugal mining. Then not only does it give cash to prove up more copper, it could be financing MOZ DFS. 2019 into 2020 could be a perfect storm..... Note 'long term' outlook, price in-between is just a price if your holding through to 3 projects going to production.

Significant fall? Trading in a 1p range, hardly significant. Director sells come in many guises, it's the circumstances that defines whether it is to be worried about. In this case the sells are fairly valid. Directors get very narrow windows each year to make a transaction. Despite DAs sell, is it not more interesting that he happily bought significantly more not long before, way in excess of his pay. How would you pay for daily life if I took your pay from you for a year? Why would he take all the options if he didn't believe the project to be valid, that would be stupid, in fact if he had passed up his options that would be of more concern. I'm pretty sure the oversubscribers have more of a handle on this, the industry and investment goals than you...... Portugal is a significant money spinner right now with current resource and with a spodumene selling price well below market price now..... Project is based on a lower price therefore why is market afraid of slightly lower prices? All current producers entered into mining with prices well below today's prices and considered plenty profitable then. Any squeeze if it brings lower prices, equals lower battery prices and in turn increases demand in a fledgling yet expanding market. Demand therefore takes up supply. Quality products will win through, we have a great market product. We are also going to be first with known spodumene in a huge car market without its own current supply of lithium. Costs will be lower buying in local market and tarrif free..... Hydroxide is pushing forward as the dominant battery lithium product, clean vanilla spodumene is the supply of choice, in a tight market the best and most appropriate product will win through. Many falling prices for big companies has come from short selling not from holders selling out, there is a difference. When the market turns the shorts have to come off!