RE: Mmmmmm3 Aug 2018 02:22
Itsaduster,
There is currently a wide analyst view that 2019 into 2020 if, IF.... The big companies can use their working capital to expand to stated targets and with some new supply arriving, supply may be in excess of demand for a short while.
However a few things to note.
1. Very rarely has any expansion especially brine hit it's expansion target.
2. New mines will not arrive at stated time, always delays, also how long you get to full production and meet target.
3. Not all lithium will make the 6% high purity required for the battery market, stories I've read recently saying some concentrate deliveries to China not hitting the right/contracted grade! Not all lithium mines are equal. If you can't hit 6%+ high purity, get out of the way.... Helps we are almost 100% spodumene, without need for strange techniques to recover right grades.
4. Hydroxide becoming more common, hard rock preferable supply to make it, only requires one conversation and it's good purity. Brine takes two conversions to get to hydroxide and not as clean, high purity. So they can produce all the brine lithium they want, spodumene for hydroxide maybe preferred regardless.
5. Location, location..... Odd we are in Europe, but currently no competing viable spodumene mine to us and cheaper to use local spodumene than ship it to Europe, governments pushing for full battery cycle production in Europe end to end of which be a no brainer to integrate Portuguese lithium supply, especially first mover! So odd place, but unique place.
6. So only so much money to go around, put money on the right lithium horses. I'd say out of juniors, given purity and location we must be a sure bet to supply European market, but if they don't get their shit together we'll sell anywhere. How many battery factories coming to Europe? Just needs a chemical producer and spodumene supply on their footstep. Hello Panasonic /Tesla...
7. Lastly, everyday story after story of EV bus, lorry, ferry, bikes, storage, cars coming to market etc, it's a juggernaut heading in one direction and it'll need more lithium everyday.... Governments, cities with laws to force you to use EV, car companies moving to electric only products, you won't have a choice.
And at $685 lithium concentrate would have to sink quite a bit before our 60%+ IRR starts to look less amazing. It's an amazing economic /financial opportunity even at significantly suppressed prices than today, everything above $685 is a bonus. All the Aussies mines entering production now were all based in pricing 2 years ago and seen as very profitable then, so why shit a brick at $900 dropping to $800 when $600-700 was already awesome???
Feel I coughed up a fur ball....