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Saying all the brokers had their periods on sync and decided to push the stock down for the rothschilds to buy this cheap so that they can have a giant influencer model party with girls wearing cheap throw away tracksuits.
The peer to peer valuation for this is roughly 55-60p and that's being generous
Anyway I came on just to TOLD YOU SO the people who were abusing my market analysis from when this was £3. Wonder where they hiding now. I mean my decades of valuation and banking experience vs their discords seem to amount to nothing.
Have a look at trakm8 , telematics is big and funds are buying this sector up with pay as you go insurance in fintech about to be rolled out
Anyway I came on just to TOLD YOU SO the people who were abusing my market analysis from when this was £3. Wonder where they hiding now. I mean my decades of valuation and banking experience vs their discords seem to amount to nothing.
Have a look at trakm8 , telematics is big and funds are buying this sector up with pay as you go insurance in fintech about to be rolled out
In the next 2yrs let alone 10y, the bag of cannabis your smoking won't be a tenner, but will be the same size but cost you fifty
If you forecast the same mental high but for 5x the price, your bank account will be empty and you'll be wearing 5 socks from £2land to keep warm because gas prices have risen 400%
If you want to know where this is going. Compare it to similar margin and supply dependant businesses like AO world.
They have a similar issue, low margins, supply inflation. Also seen a huge rise in revenue but a burn in ebitda. On similar revenue their valuation is £400m. Gives you a good indication of the direction of this
If rates rise?
Sorry to be the bearer of sad news but they moved from 0.1 to 0.25. Which in magnitude is 15bps but still 150%. Now imagine your nominal is not £100k but a bn or two. It's going to hurt
Clearly you've overlooked the flood gate of printing over the last year of so. If rates don't go up, forget economic collapse, you'll be wishing for am asteroid to start over.
I did predict this in previous posts when this was 2-3. Even I didn't expect boe to send a coordinated rate rise message with the fed. There's more pain to come
I agree but their generous 30x multiple was based on low cost of borrowing and low inflation and a fluid capital market.
Now you have 6% inflation, every central bank looking to raise rates and bond buyers going to govys and away from riskier corporate paper. So basically the capital bird is no longer taking the risk to fly over the volcano
The years I've watched the blinded by love and married to the share investors.
I think you'll finds multiple £1 shops chains a rarity. Most collapsed on the last inflation spike. Look at America as a template, now they have $1.3 shops, doesn't quite have the same ring to it
When a business is based on low margins and high volumes, inflation has been a killer as the cost of goods rising wipes any benefits away
Look at the £1 shops, they are more or less gone from the high st.
This is on its way down
This has been a steady decline since I bought it.
Talking to a mate in banking, these platforms work on very low margins. They band around £billions which sound good, but make fractions of pennies.
Personally sold a little yesterday and picked up more trakm8. Atleast the insiders own 90% of that's stock