Member Info for aimtitan

Seen a few people taking aim at me on here.
Looks it's pretty basic analysis, I can't stop laughing at people comparing share price before covid and now whisky ignoring an equity raise and dilution.
Basically if you calculate the market cap before, then the market cap now, ull see it's the same now if not more.
Then consider the basic logic, between that period you have had a virus catastrophe which naturally has caused sales to fall. This to anyone with sense would imply an impact in valuation.

Consider the equity raise, majority of which went to pay down a government load with a little left over for system improvements.

These improvements are not known and can't be priced in.

So for the current market cap and valuation to be higher/same as precovid without considering the impact of all of the above is ludicrous. Hence why this has dropped.

The other part is your AIM optimism is trumped by rational institutional investors analysis methods as they own majority of this company. Therefore your fighting big sells from the big guys who have made their profits and now selling out.

Even with optimism you have to also consider, first quarter of the year is a dead period for fashion, look at the Google traffic if you want some confirmation. With lockdowns to become even more strict, any forward growth you would expect is depressed at least for h1 2021.

Anyway good luck all, see you in a couple of months as I stay out of retail between Jan to April as it's a dead quater.

I sold at a high above the current price, so not really missed out considering my entry was sub 20. I will re enter this when the valuation is more appropriate.

If they didn't do an equity raise I would have agreed. But by diluting the share by 70%, you need earnings to double just to normalize the EPS. I agree this is a really good company, but you have to ask yourself, why do a £100m equity raise if the company is doing well, you can easily issue bonds or goto lenders to get a near zero rate. Equity raising is expensive to investors. Fact is the current market cap is the same as pre covid and that isn't right given a drop in revenue

Got way more to go before I buy mate! Am guessing your played roulette with this and bought at the peak without research the dilution etc

I know EV, I do financial modelling. The multiple applied here isn't the same as the general fashion retail sector as it's a niche supplier to a select market. Hence why the market discounts it's forward multiple more than the likes of boohoo and Asos who target a broader customer base. The challenge is even boohoo and Asos have started doing plus size, so it's become competitive now. I like this business but for the right price, 40-50p is where my calcs lead me.

Today's RNS was very misleading to people, am sure some ended up buying as it was more optimistic than honest. But I guess that's aim

Look at boohoo, that's down 4.5% even after seeing growth. Based on intrinsic valuation methods i see this between 40-50p. I can't understand why they did an equity raise instead of a bond offer where they could have got such low rates. It's a greedy corporate equity raid.

Also if you account for dilution this is actually above 100p already. Madness

Very good post.
Precovid it was unloved and that's because of its declining sales which were funded by an expanding loan book. But between then and now we have had a virus catastrophe, and you can't say that doesn't impact valuation. Just look at your mental state and behaviours, you tend to buy less clothes that's for sure. This is seen as not one quater returned and increase in revenue, all 3 showed some decline. So you can't really say 100p, as that would be well above precovid market cap which would imply the company is doing better now than then

Anyway I only came back on here to see if my prediction was on point, as I did sell post dilution as my calcs gave this a fair value around the 40-50 range. I like this company and will be back in when those levels are reached. As it stands jan to may Is a dead season for retail especially fashion.

I'll tell you one thing tho. Aim investors with low insutuonal ownership does well. As aim investors are fantasists and institutions are rationalist. But over the 10yrs of my investing, when a stock moves from main listing to Aim, instutions tend to exit as their valuations become irrelevant. This is 80% institutions so you've seen the first wave of exits

A price of 100p, makes this worth 40% more than it's was worth pre covid. I can see alot of people grasping to share price and not market cap. You can't compare today's share price to pre covid as he equity raise has occurred. The market cap however you can compare. The market cap today is higher than it was pre covid hence the drop as revenue isn't back to pre covid

I would agree with you on instituons if this didn't move to Aim however aim stocks rarely pay divi. Condiderign the company has deen a continued decline quater on quater, paying divi after an equity raise is like take a loan out and then paying it to yourself in salary

You'll see institutions who are majority here sell of now, as broen is still not seeing revenue growth where boohoo and Asos are. It's plugging holes with budget cuts

I agree it's a good company, but the dilution annoyed me, that's literally stealing growth from other shareholders. Personally I value this roughly at 46p

The dilution was essentially an equity raid. Money it could have raised easily from banks for cheaper. The market cap now is bigger than it was pre covid.

The shareprice now is with 70% dilution so you can do a like for like to precovjd.
The market cap pre covid was around £300m and now due to dilution we are £350m

It's been on roughly 23rd for the last 5 years, check rns history

Exciting times

Looks like GS is bullish on LNG
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-Of-Bullish-Perfect-Storm-For-Natural-Gas.html