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@trading4good remember my post05 Jul 2022 13:23
Sorry i remember you joking about valuations!
like i said nbrown offers a better risk/reward profile with a compelling ownership structure and target market resilient to inflation
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I sense sarcasm, so clearly you struggle with the difference between valuation and sentiment based market value. So back 6 months ago the price was based on a similar backdrop of high returns and slowing of sales.
So today, we are facing the same returns but the driver isn't covid but inflation. Where covid has ended, inflation is only beginning. So for a low margin high volume business, this is catastrophic. And given this targets a demographic which is ultra sensitive to inflation with low savings and high leverage.
I would imagine this will see a series of profit warning and operational optimisation programs to squeeze margins. It will be a long slog in the range of 45p to 55p range ( without dilution or capital raises)
Nbrown isn't my first choice, ots just an resilient alternative where margins will be squeezed but volumes will be sustained as its an older customer with savings and approaching retirement range.
My favourite is trakm8, a low cap with 90% shares held by insiders or institutions . Works to reduce fuel costs and with major clients. Also working with adiona to launch the first AI based usage based insurance for motor vehicles. At mcap £9m with revenues of £20m, its both value and growth in the right environment. Just have a check of thr latest telematics m&a from private equity. And PE is always one step ahead
Thanks guys for your kind words. I've lived the pog life, seen it grow, fall, resurrect....
I feel for Hambro as his baby has been passed around.
Am looking at good hedges like gold and sustainable tech. Have a look at trakm8 gents.
I compared it to QTX and SAAS, which are similar companies. Trakm8 has half the revenue but 5% of their market cap. 80% of stock is institution owned. And tech with reduces fuel usage and provides data to insurance seems to be a long term play. Leave it to you to do DD
Am not invested in here however have been in the past and made some good returns over the last 10yrs on this.
Currently in Poly however i have some thoughts on POG
1. Why did Strukov go through the effort of transferring this stock to personal account, if there is no direct benefit to him
2. Administration is a long process, which includes a full audit of books to determine the asset/lib position of the company. So indirectly, this would mean pog would receive a full audit
3. Administration serves to protect the company from immediate liabilities, thus buying time. Maybe this is being used as a tool to keep the company in operation until the war blows over.
Personally, i believe Strukov has always wanted POG but more for the reason that it is listed on international markets, as a means to take his company to market through a reverse merger. So it makes sense for him to keep pog alive
Sorry i remember you joking about valuations!
like i said nbrown offers a better risk/reward profile with a compelling ownership structure and target market resilient to inflation
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I sense sarcasm, so clearly you struggle with the difference between valuation and sentiment based market value. So back 6 months ago the price was based on a similar backdrop of high returns and slowing of sales.
So today, we are facing the same returns but the driver isn't covid but inflation. Where covid has ended, inflation is only beginning. So for a low margin high volume business, this is catastrophic. And given this targets a demographic which is ultra sensitive to inflation with low savings and high leverage.
I would imagine this will see a series of profit warning and operational optimisation programs to squeeze margins. It will be a long slog in the range of 45p to 55p range ( without dilution or capital raises)
Nbrown isn't my first choice, ots just an resilient alternative where margins will be squeezed but volumes will be sustained as its an older customer with savings and approaching retirement range.
My favourite is trakm8, a low cap with 90% shares held by insiders or institutions . Works to reduce fuel costs and with major clients. Also working with adiona to launch the first AI based usage based insurance for motor vehicles. At mcap £9m with revenues of £20m, its both value and growth in the right environment. Just have a check of thr latest telematics m&a from private equity. And PE is always one step ahead
Or
The coming to the end if their mortgage, who can afford to go on holidays, have savings in their bank accounts with a matured career paying £50k+, will be enjoying their riches buying nbrowns range.
At half the revenue of boohoo but a 1/7th of the market cap of boohoo. With majority shareholders being insiders (much higher the kamanis ownership)
The chance of going lower are limited