Member Info for AIMOilking

Understanding the short view is beyond me, whether be it POO ENQ sp, Russia, China etc etc. I have just carried on buying as the price has fallen, perhaps a risky strategy but I believe the growing strength of the ENQ balance sheet will surely win in the end, whether it is a result of $100 POO in 2023, March's report or perhaps now a later update in 2023.

What is certain is that an EPL floor price is required to avoid the government's rape of private O&G industries and evaporation of investment in both O&G and renewable energy or CO2 sequestration.

The cold snap across Europe may underpin energy prices in the short term and make life uncomfortable for many but predicting the future price of POO is going to be difficult with so much 'noise' in the market place. However, the epidemic of strikes is truly going to be a challenge for all and life threatening for some.

One thing is sure that given AB's personal interest in ENQ, you can be sure that he will want to return shareholder value sooner than later and avoid a hostile takeover given ENQ's MCAP now heading to an unbelievable a round £400m......! Afterall, even after debt, ENQ must now have a net asset value nearing £1bn, again in round numbers as should the sp be around 50p at least.

Personally, I think POO will remain in the 75-120 range due to many different factors already discussed on this board. In that range ENQ will be adding between $1m and £1m (round numbers) every single day, so debt reduction will continue and net value will dramatically increase Perhaps one day AB will generously surprise us with a special dividend or serious buy back of shares..............wishful thinking.

Explosions at Russian Airfields can only increase tensions as they did after the Crimean Bridge boom - bad news for everyone and possible impact on POO.

Odd and large number of 2599 trades going through today, what is that about?

Tick-tock - I believe that even after tax, the net value of ENQ is increasing by at least £1m every day of the week.

Apart from this current dip the sp, ENQ has only been below 25p from 29th June to 19th July roughly in the last 6 months. All holders are well aware of the net asset value increase thanks to cash flow and debt reduction in this period. I have added again today as I genuinely believe the spring is tightening for a radical rerating of ENQ and I would be surprised if we had to wait to the next report some 120 days away or another £120m in net asset value away or equivalent to 6.36p added to the already grossly unvalued ENQ, even taking into account EPL. DYOR

At this point, if Slift wins, I will be happy and in profit. Hopefully, we will be closer to 30p+

Bastan, totally agree - the US$1m a day addition to asset value is akin to a key winding up a spring. Added again today to help tighten it a little further!

When you look back at the sp graph, the price a few weeks ago and even looking at the lows and market cap. against the increased asset value, today's sp is a joke, this share with its cash generation and equivalent to a forward order book should be much higher.

Added - DYOR.

Right now 30p would be just fine.

Romaron, the Tax losses holiday might last a little longer than you think because there will undoubtedly be additional Capex paid out during this period which will count towards losses. I am sure that AB will be mindful of this and act to minimise tax through to 2028 when hopefully EPL will be lifted and we'll be back to just corporation tax.

Whilst I absolutely agree things need to change, why oh why do they use plastic banners, plastic hazard vests and clog the streets with idling traffic............?

Bastan, ENQ should be reducing debt by around £1m per day or equivalent to 1.6p per month of added asset value. This makes the current sp ridiculous even taking into account the currently lower POO.

If today's sp is 23.4p, by the next report in March ENQ will add equivalent to 6.4p in net assets, so we'll just have to sit for 30p and this does not take into account ENQ is undervalued and the strength of the balance sheet will be transformed even in this short period and even taking into account EPL.

Based on the recent 6th June low of 20.15p, given the net asset increase since then, we should be at 30p now on that basis alone.

I can only liken ENQ to a spring, one day the market will recognise the increased net assets and correct the market cap and there will be a real bounce in the share price, without any other news or a dramatic rise in POO or reduction in EPL we will just have to wait for the March report, unless a hedge fund swoops before then.

The assets, cash flow and particularly the tax losses must be attractive to a predator who wishes to shelter from some of the tax (Corporation) burden whilst EPL is in place.

Perhaps we just need a bit of good news from ENQ or a higher POO?

Added again today, having re-read the update, I think the underlying message and the way AB is choosing to offset the impact of EPL through managing costs and Capex, Sterling will probably weaken (80% cost base in UK) and the ENQ team's management of projects has been very good, e.g. shutdowns under budget and ahead of time. I also believe that irrespective of EPL, the tax losses will ensure debt reduction continues a pace and at 0.5, the sp will benefit from value being returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. it would not surprise me if AB opened the taps with a special dividend to repair long term holders and PR, although, I would favour the buyback route as being slightly lower profile and easier for shareholders to manage tax, although the cutting of CGT allowances will have an impact for many on this board.

Principal element of the Kracken lease and I thought Magnus share before tax.

Plus higher investment allowance for decarbonisation.

If someone wants to plug in the figures or update the ENQ spreadsheet the following might help clarify ENQ's EPL liability

Total ENQ UK Revenue
(minus) Opex (excl. depreciation and interest)
(minus) Magnus profit share
(minus) Kraken Lease

Pre Capex ENQ Taxable Profit
(minus) UK Capex
(minus) Tax relief = 0.29 x Capex (1.29 x Capex - note decarbonisation @0.8)

Taxable Profit
35%of taxable profit

ELP Fact Sheet link:

Energy Taxes Factsheet - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

EPL will impact timelines to ENQ financial targets but if ENQ is controlling costs, benefiting from weak Sterling and keeping down time activities ahead of schedule and under budget etc etc, perhaps the impact of EPL on the ENQ business plan will be less than we feared.

Unfortunately, seriously busy, so if anyone would like to crunch the numbers it would be appreciated.

The Ops update tells us how it is...............what we expected, but a little down beat.

I noted comment about weak pound being an advantage with 80% costs in the UK, it is a shame we have a weak government that has slowed both ENQ's business plan and investment plans. I get the sense AB is a little miffed!

A shame they did not give us a debt update, that may have helped the sp, as I have said before this share should be on a steady upward trend - continuously. Slightly disappointed by overall production figures, I thought that might have been that silver bullet.

Any new dutch revenue will be heavily taxed and current O&G climate may well frighten off GPA investors or at least move any deal to the right and ultimately, probably less favourable to PMG. Very disappointing , sold 40% of PMG holding into ENQ and cash for a buyback of PMG sub 45p. Even had trouble getting rid of shares this morning, could not sell anything for a while and limit order for further sales is unlikely to sell now. Seriously disappointed with this update but still hope dutch drills are successful as they will keep PMG afloat and potentially just into profit next year, unless we are hit with a few more fast balls.

Just not impressed with these results and it looks like recent taxation, newly imposed taxation and liabilities has sucked the life out of Parkmead. Actually sold some today and switched into ENQ which I believe has a more certain short term upside with a update due imminently. Still have a substantial PMG holding as the Dutch drills will help a little (taxation will bite hard on any new revenues and of course GPA, but nothing heard yet and in the current climate, it may be a while and at what cost to PMG's share. So reduced, still holding and very disappointed, so taking the opportunity like others to trade a few, my short term choice being ENQ.

In 2020 the preliminary results were announced on 20th Nov and in 2021 the 26th Nov. Perhaps today's rise and recent rising trend is in expectation of good results and hopefully subsequent good drilling results.

Tomorrow or any day, we'll get a useful insight into how PMG has performed, perhaps even some extra news.

Personally, I believe ENQ is oversold and we will now see a slow steady rise into the update which I hope will be this week - last year it was on the 24th November.

Wilest it will possibly be difficult to spell out what he thinks the EPL charge will be, I hope that he will be able to give us enough hints and information for us to make a reasonable guess as to what the impact might be. Certainly, as others have suggested, it might be a good idea to rattle IR at ENQ.