Member Info for AIMOilking

Brokers need to re-assess, a lot has changed since the last brokers report in November and ANTO still has a reasonable dividend at these levels.

Apparently, Shell tried to sell off its Norwegian assets to Harbour towards the end of 2022, but talks failed due to pricing volatility - I wonder if in fact it was the pricing volatility of EPL 25 going up to 35% that scuppered the deal. Thanks Hunty, you have found another way to kick our trusty NS O&G companies and energy security in the proverbial....

Likely to soon move into FTSE 250 - other BB's please feel welcome to add to the thread.........

If you are really thinking of investing, then have a look back at the last year's RNS and Annual Report. You will find it interesting reading and get a strong indication as how dramatically the balance sheet has strengthened and the company has become increasingly under valued.

Things to look for:

£100'sm reduction in debt - that one will blow your mind as will likely cash generated being bigger than current MCap!
Strength of management which actually delivers
Net asset value
Around £1m+ debt reduction per day after all taxes including new EPL
£2.6bn losses against future corporation tax
CEO and family have 12% interest in ENQ, so motivated to succeed.

Things to understand:

O&G sector sentiment at all time low will recover
New EPL tax announcement was a kick in the slats but manageable
Management talking about buybacks and dividends
Government does not appreciate EPL's damage to industry and will have to announce POO floor as EU already has done, which will help.
O&G companies are takeover targets due to low MCap and cash generative
China opening up and chances average POO in 2023 will be higher than current sub US$80 price

SO DYOR and read the RNS and operational updates - next one March. I think you will find most on this BB are heavily into ENQ as proportions of their portfolios, but EPL and sentiment in particular means that 2-12months patience is required.

Nice little trend developing over last week that is adding about 1.29m to MCap per day, now if POO remains static, such a trend is sustainable with current cash generation and debt reduction i.e. net asset value.

It will be slow, but without any news or substantial changes, it is probably the best we can hope for until the next update hopefully crystallises value in a rerated sp.

AB should miss a payment of two to the Tory Party, that will talk louder than any fluffy lobbying.

No worries everyone, once the POO drops below $60, old Hunty will bail the O&G industry out with government funds generated from another renewable windfall tax from the renewable shareholders piggy bank. We'll know when it is about to happen when someone wearing a stocking over the head slopes out of No11.

Have to say I am very disappointed with ENQ New Year sp, I had thought we would have been up a couple of pence post Xmas. Even with EPL we should be dropping at least US$1m a day in debt - eventually that has to translate into shareholder value. If the government will not U turn on EPL, we must all lobby the O&G companies and government for a price floor...........at least then we can extrapolate on the basis of an EPL cap as POO falls. If not you could have the bizarre but possible situation where profitable companies go bust paying EPL should POO fall through the floor.

Just about to make a similar post, we are now back at July 2022 sp levels, when ENQ has reduced debt by a couple of hundred million and overall financing costs, O.K. POO was higher by 10%+, but the reduction in debt at around 10p a share should have more than offset this. I suppose this simply means that the Government has wiped out all shareholder value for the last six months - I hope one or all of the O&G takes them to court! Happy New Year - not!

I am afraid that we are going to have to wait and see what POO does and until our next ENQ update is published.

Decided to have a look at ENQ Historic performance over time and to keep it simple, from 2012, last 5yrs, 1yr, 6m, 1m, 1wk & 1 day:
-73.84
-9.9
+21.25
-11.72
-10.45
+5.81
+1.86

Not exactly good reading historically, but it appears we are coming out of the debt tail spin and as long as production and POO hold up, I hope and believe we will be soaring higher in 2023, despite Hunty and EPL.

Oil up .6% and ENQ down 0.6% - go figure..........

Re Hydrogen - I think the jury on hydrogen has also gone to figure.........

However, I am passed trying to figure the ENQ sp, I just hope the sp figure goes up...........

Agreed, share buyback is the way to go initially and dividends further down the road.

Disappointed with this mornings sp, I was hoping for more of a bounce and possibly another Directors buy RNS, which would have encouraged people to hold over the holidays in anticipation of higher POO in the New Year and the next report. The Christmas rally has been a little lacklustre so far.

POO now up +3% and +US$82 - let's see if AB buys a few more but I already think we will end the week higher.

Auson - you are actually right, so perhaps we will see a few more buys from AB at this level as he did in fact buy more than in today's RNS a year ago at a similiar price and more again in his mid year spree at a higher share price. My guess he is not finished. This is almost as good as buybacks (obviously he could sell) at least until ENQ can actually buy back.

I bet AB wishes he had enough money to take ENQ private, his buy today has added £20m to the sp/MCap and puts his/Bseisu consolidated interests at around 11.673% or equivalent of £46.34m which by any standards is an impressive interest for a company of this size and for any CEO and his family.

Come ENQ BoD, a few more buys please!?

AB must being reading this thread as I did ask for some positive news before Christmas!

Excellent and it would now be nice if the Chairman followed suit and maybe we will get a Christmas rally after all.

MCap now £380m...........FCF greater than MCap, probably even with all taxes including EPL.........Brent @80+...........I would absolutely love to be a fly on AB's office wall at the moment...........AB could we have some positive news for Xmas - please?

On the 30th September 2022, POO was 82.52 compared with 80 today. Enquest announced debt reduction was down to 750m by 30th September and the sp was 26.52 and since then we can reasonably assume that debt has fallen by a further 100m or equivalent to 5.3p in sp, but ENQ sp is now 20.25p.

So we have a net improvement of 100m on the balance sheet, which added to the equivalent drop of MCAP (26.52-20.25) of 118m makes in Sterling around a £200m drop in shareholder value in 80 days for no apparent reason other than market sentiment and EPL, but the later will not wipe out the net gain in value by a long shot.

It does not make sense - either ENQ is a coiled spring waiting for yet further firm figures and proof via an update that ENQ is vastly undervalued or something fundamentally wrong with the company or the market.

As I have said before, patience and time will tell but when you are sitting on a chunky loss time doesn't half drag!

Ooops is right when it comes to hydrogen, there are instances where it will work if it can be cheaply generated and safely used.

The "Greens" tend to forget that Hydrogen is generally expensive, is highly explosive and difficult to handle..........................

Perkin, do you really see ENQ MCap getting to the £300m level?

The only thing that surely could bring the ENQ sp to 16p would be a major disaster or a collapse in the POO. That would put the sp back at Feb 2021's level which was post initial pandemic when the company had 40% of the current FCF and double the net debt. Also looking at comparable companies (ENQ website quite useful for this), whilst other companies have experienced a post EPL, higher interest rates and lower POO & sentiment, it appears that it is only ENQ that has experienced the recent and sudden sp price drop, which I have to say does not make sense.

As an investor - what am I missing?

As an investor, what would I like to see - in no particular order and some obviously cannot be disclosed?

An indication of EPL impact on ENQ, based on US$80/90/100 in 2023
News of EPL reduction to 25%
News of an EPL POO floor
An update on debt reduction and target date for 0.5
Chairman Director's substantial buy, plus additional AB buys
Positive update on production figures and positive news on shut down completions
Any news on buy backs or dividends
Sale of asset
New deal
Takeover talk or bid
Slightly higher POO
The list goes on......................... basically anything positive to avoid the downward drift.

Just had a response, previous email O.K. if you are constituent the following one if not:

public.enquiries@hmtreasury.gov.uk