Member Info for AIMOilking

It appears that Green Ammonia could be an alternative zero emissions fuel, the first truck is being tested - it has some serious advantages over Hydrogen in that it is an unpressurised liquid at room temperature.

Still take a while to transition from oil and not the whole solution, so ENQ will need to keep pumping for a while yet.

Prior to last April there were some really generous government grants available for air, ground, hydro blades etc. So I investigated all of them and this is prior to the energy price rises. Apart from the fact that I discovered the suppliers were in a cosy relationship with the main equipment suppliers - I made one phone call to a builders merchant and achieved a 54% discount but the installer would not break the link directly to the manufacturer, so I could not purchase the equipment from a third party retailer. Long story cut short, even with massive government grants and at late 2021 prices, it was going to cost me an additional £3,500 a year (amortised capital cost, plus running costs but without maintenance/servicing) to heat my home over oil. I can recommend, adjusting thermostats, programmers, closing doors, adding insulation and when necessary add a jumper and woolly hat. My costs are now down despite energy price rises and I can honestly say I am no less comfortable, but whilst I want to change from oil, it does not make financial sense, but perhaps I should live in a newer and smaller home.

Going green is not simple and the government needs to ensure it is affordable so it rises up individuals list of personal priorities, after all humans are selfish, I am not even sure the technology is quite there yet, the cost is coming down but the efficiency and infrastructure needs to further improve, especially for retro fit into existing housing stock, transport and power.

I see ENQ will continue to pump oil and hopefully sequestrate CO2 for 50 years to come whilst transitioning the business to a greener portfolio, the oil just might not be from the NS. We are dependent on oil for every aspect of our modern overcrowded lives, we cannot go back to the stone age without starving more than half the world's population which in turn will precipitate conflict over resources. We need everyone individually and every country to take action now but we need both plans and technological solutions to turn the oil tap off.

I am off ENQ as a subject and this is too complicated for a BB, however just as Startrek was seen as far fetched, some of the disaster movies looking into the future are not now so implausible, these are worrying times. So instead of depressing myself with a doomsday countdown, I am selfishly counting down the 12 days to hopefully ENQ's next update in the hope that it comes first, so I can build my well insulated off grid bunker!

I have posted a link: https://www.aol.co.uk/labour-extend-windfall-tax-prevent-115834831.html

I thought Reeves to be out of her depth from the first time I saw her speaking on TV (not unusual amongst the current crop of MPs), but to read these quotes from her speech and the overall article , it leaves me cold........... In the past I would have laughed and shrugged my shoulders and got on with my own business, but I am not laughing..........without some strong leadership with a clear viable plan (I would vote for AB to the run the country), we are really in trouble and that is for the foreseeable future.

12 mths, 24mths, 5yrs, 10yrs, 20yrs and 40yrs, I have always had a plan for the future despite unforeseen problems along the way, those plans have come to fruition.

At an accelerated pace during the last few months, I spend my time considering different scenarios and how to revise my plans for them, and I have realised today that I do not have a plan, because there are too many variables known and unknown, plus I don't know whether that plan is even based in this country now?!?! One thing is for certain is that just like HBR I am cutting back on capital expenditure, although I am thinking of forking out for a survival course in case we go back to the stone age.

I wonder if ENQ and other NS stocks will be affected by the Labour leaderships ridiculous utterings, we'll see on Monday and if AB is going to pull any rabbits out of the hat, let's hope they start popping out in the next update which should be less than two weeks away. My belief in ENQ coming good is pretty much all that is left of any plans and my new long range plan is lunch in 10 minutes that is if the power is still on.

Remember, last one out turn the lights off and maybe I should change my BB handle AIMOilKing before I am persecuted for being non PC and expelled from the BB/country. Who knows, this apparently now open ended nationalisation of the UK oil industry's profits and its shareholders investment is a very slippery slope, an action that is more typically associated with dictatorship and corruption.....I wonder what is next?

P.S. I am a great believer in renewables, recycling, preventing pollution etc., it would be fair to say that I do my bit in this area, but I am a realist and producing oil and gas for a given period has to be part of any transition plan for a greener future. Every oil company worth its salt, knows they have to re focus their business away from fossil fuels, but when a government pinches their profits that is not quite so easy.

I still cannot get my head around the idea of it being greener to import oil from long distances away instead of just pumping it ashore locally and why in green transition would you boost other oil economies whilst sacrificing jobs at home????

PPS - Sorry for the rant, perhaps I should write book!!!!

I think everyone would be very disappointed with 33p, it needs to be at least 40% above recent highs, so a figure of 45p which incidentally is the JP Morgan target. That would be roughly double current MCap, although without EPL, it could have been much higher - thanks Hunty!

I think HBR news and POO weighed heavy on us today, but I think the upward trend will continue, as I said yesterday, AB will be shaving capital expenditure from his budget, so hopefully the 2022 figures will be better than expected.

US$714 would be a good figures after EPL, however, I am sure that AB will be throwing the proverbial kitchen sink of Renewable Capital Investment at the EPL figure to minimise it. In addition, 2022's track record has been one of completing projects ahead of time and under budget. I believe that the production figures will be slightly higher than the most recently stated and I bet AB has been squeezing the Capital spend to reduce cash going out. Personally, I would think that we will be sub US$700m net debt, the question is by how much - my guestimate would be US$675m net debt. This is why the February update and March results are so exciting - we'll get a real snap shot.

Possibly just 16 days to update and 65 days to year end results, not long to wait for some real figures and perhaps the current positive trend will continue until the update is published, if everything is on track then hopefully it will continue beyond the update.

Chilt - your points are fair enough, although unless the nuclear was state owned, so that the government could sell it to consumers under market value, I don't think it would have adverted the current crisis, just reduced the impact.

Anyway, this thread is stepping away from ENQ, so let's partially agree and disagree and return to ENQ.

Chilt - subsidise....................there you have it, the government subsidises which in turn means anyone paying tax subsidises, so the renewables are more expensive than the headline quotes.......

This is where EPL is unfair to ENQ and other companies shareholders, we took a risk and invested and now we are subsidising government mismanagement of their finances. The silly thing is that the government would have got most of their money through us paying CGT, but at least we could have chosen when to pay it!

Chilt - remember renewables require significant capital expenditure and then often significant expenditure to maintain and replace. I cannot believe these 2-4c renewable prices are including capital and maintenance costs. Then there is always the storage issue...........

You may recall that I pointed out the beginning of a trend starting 4th January which has in fact accelerated. But if you take the average rise from the 4th, I estimate we'll hit 32p on 31st March 2023. No science behind this just a gut feeling bolstered by February and March's forthcoming reports..............

Don't forget we were at circa 32p in April, May and September and despite EPL a lot of debt has been removed from the balance sheet since then and by 31st March another US$70-100m of debt should have been accounted for.

I believe EU has a US$84+ floor figure and the UK has no floor.

Every company and its shareholders should be lobbying their MP's and government for sensible EPL POO floor.

Hunty is a puppet and does not have the brain power or experience for the job at hand.

The government needs to put a floor under the price upon which EPL is charged, that floor needs to be the average POO for the proceeding 12mths prior to the start of the energy crisis. That way the government gets a small slice of any excessive profits, the industry knows where it stands and can plan to invest and the UK gets energy security through the transition to renewables.

AB needs to be joining Harbour's boss and others to lobby for this POO floor.

If it true Labour is saying they will implement a 38% EPL and back date it to 2022, then I believe that would be challengeable in court, would further damage the O&G industry and could conceivably even put companies out of business having to find unexpected back taxes, could cause them to break financial covenants and have all sorts of potential unintended consequences, whilst making the O&G industry even more un-investable, even upon simply making the announcement.

How thick are these politicians - the World is truly going mad!

I royally ****ged off Barclays when they repeatedly forecast low 20's, but they got it right. Let's hope 32p is also a correct forecast for the near term, given where we were on 6th July - low 20's and given the huge level of cash generation and already confirmed debt reduction, despite EPL we should be at 32p anyway and preferably at JP Morgans target or 45p sooner rather than later!

With 2.6bn (plus future Capex) of losses against tax...........and certain Capex allowable against EPL..........as long as POO remains at a reasonable US$80+.........ENQ will keep paying down debt and or start accumulating a pile of cash..........so net asset value will continue to increase way above ridiculously low MCap.

As the balance sheet strengths, the ability for ENQ to return shareholder value increases and the management has already indicated buybacks and dividends (possibly special dividends as well?). These combined with a probable move into the FTSE 250 will attract new investors seeking financially secure and well run companies that return value to shareholders.

AB has a good team with a lot of experience, plus they have a few years to run, they will have a clear strategy which will undoubtedly include making a load of money for themselves (AB 12% stake) and consequently their shareholders. This could be an expansion of the business in several directions making the best use of their assets, wringing the last drop out of the current assets and heading for the hills, selling the business and so on.

It is a waiting game, we'll soon see the likely impact of EPL (government's price floor) in February and March's update and the state of ongoing debt reduction as a result, meanwhile hedging is in place and POO is climbing thanks to the Chinese emerging from the pandemic lockdown.

DYOR Large percentage of portfolio now in ENQ and carrying a loss, but given the rapid rate of increasing ENQ net asset value - ENQ should be a loaded Spring which will be released by high POO or hard financial figures that cannot be ignored by pundits or predators.

Thank you, I had forgotten about the February update - just three weeks away, now that is not long. Should have another £25m in the bank by then, equivalent to 1.3p. Ooh, tighten that spring.

Your reminder has cheered me up no end, although I had a good day today selling ANTO on the high and buying some more LGEN for the dividend on an unwarranted dip today and adding more ENQ, of course.

Brent US$82.55 - up over 3% today, last spurt after FTSE close, so hopefully a blue ENQ day tomorrow.

Still can't believe we are at the same price as 6th July 2022, even with the advent of EPL, it completely ignores the massive and on going debt reduction and increase in net asset value. I have bought undervalued shares many times but can't remember any share that has used free cash flow to reduce debt so radically, it just does not make sense of the current MCap. Topped up today in the hope that ENQ is in fact an increasingly tightening coiled spring. If the update is o the 24th March, exactly 10 weeks before concrete figures are announced.

POO above US$81 and climbing today, eventually a POO rise will translate into an ENQ sp rise.

Patience and that day will surely come - I added again today - every 0.1p is now getting very exciting either way!

Despite falling POO and EPL, we know that every day the ENQ balance sheet is getting stronger by around £1m, if I owned a company generating this level of free cash I would be very happy - oh but I am happy - I do own a share of ENQ, but the problem is the wait for the MCap to reflect the current and growing net asset value...............boring! But I have a feeling one day the sp will shoot up, just hope that I can cope with that level of excitement.

Added a decent top up and happy to sit tight for the dividend, I would be very surprised if dividend changed appreciably - it was not during pandemic, of of the few share that held steady on dividend policy without much hesitation.