finncap27 Aug 2019 09:38
ECO has spud its second prospect, Joe, on the Orinduik block. The shares have
been exceptionally strong performers, up 286% YTD, but we believe there is
further to go given the extensive and exciting prospectivity across the Orinduik
block. We are raising our risked-NAV and price target by 20% to 171p to adjust
our prospect resource estimates to 100% oil following the Jethro discovery,
which encountered no gas. Of note is the fact that our risked-NAV only currently
includes 6 of the 15 prospects identified to date on the Orinduik block.
Joe spud. Eco has spud the second of its exploration wells on the Orinduik block,
targeting the 148mmboe Joe prospect. The well is again being drilled by the Stena
Forth drillship and is expected to take approximately three weeks to drill.
? Joe worth 63p/sh unrisked. Joe is a 148mboe Upper Tertiary target in 700m water
depth, with a similar geological chance of success (GCoS) as Jethro. We value Joe at
17p/sh assuming a 43% GCoS and a 67% Commercial CoS. Fully de-risked, we
estimate Joe is worth 63p/sh. Coming hot on the heels of the Jethro-1 success,
expectations are high.
? Strong cash position. ECO reported results to end-June last week. After drilling its
first successful well on the Orinduik block in Guyana, Jethro-1, ECO currently has
C$35.7m (£21.9m) of cash remaining, which should be sufficient to fund its 15%
share of up to six exploration, appraisal or development wells on the block.
? Raising price target. Of note for Jethro is that the discovery contains only oil, with no
gas encountered. We had previously assumed the Orinduik prospects held some
associated gas, which would have to have been reinjected and therefore had no
value. Adjusting our models to reflect 100% oil prospects raises our risked-NAV and
price target by 20%, from 142p to 171p/sh. This valuation only includes six of the 15
prospects identified so far on the block.
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