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I'm afraid we have further to fall. Someone talked to me of Analysis. Sorry mate the ball game has changed! All Analysis will do is lead you to sink more money into a losing share. We are now in a Bear market......and the trend has changed from a rising market to a falling one. My analysis is that past profits are irrelevent…...this time next year profits will not be as good as they are this year. Ultimately, when the tide goes out all boats sink. £2.50 was a generous estimate.....£1.50 is possible!
This is a good pub chain and definitely has the recipe for success. However, the shares are over priced in this environment and the consequences of the Coronavirus could be catastrophic in the next few months. I'm not risking going to pubs for at least three months. I suspect these shares are heading for £7.00
Next stop £5.50!
I think this share could go to 20-25p I expect Mr Conn will be filling his boots at that price!
"Nice if you've got the money to see it through" Where do you see this going? There must be a floor to the decline. Someone will want to buy this dog at some price. I wonder if the Directors will start buying back in.....I'm sure they can afford it!
Incidentally, I agree about Rockhopper......maybe two years is about it. But it is looking really grim right now!
An oil share I have been following for a long time is Rockhopper, in the Falklands. It has discovered massive amounts of oil and over the years has progressed slowly towards recovering the oil. Their share price has fallen from over £5.00 a share when they had just found the oil and no where near as close to extracting it. Obviously finance is the problem and they now stand at a lowly .07p a share, which I believe is grossly undervalued and this share could soar. But in the present climate, who knows what could happen.
I totally agree that at some stay oils will become popular again and now is a good time to buy. But they might become even cheaper for a while.
Bridgedog, you have earned my respect as a genuine investor who really knows what he's talking about! I think we were both right. I was a sole voice in the last two years saying that I would not touch them at anything over £4.50. But in the light of the results and your comments, I must agree with you totally.
Its a bit of a shame, because a business like this, could have been a safe haven in difficult times. But these markets are extremely treacherous at the moment and it is very difficult to find anything that is safe!
If you look back over my investment history, you will see that one of my favourites was a firm called HUNTSWORTH. I got out a couple of years ago having made a handsome profit, only to lose some of it on what I thought was a fairly safe Centrica! And then a few days ago when everything turned red, the only blue share was Huntsworth up 50%! That's the stock market for you!!
What are your thoughts about other companies? I'm very wary about everything at the moment. As I think that the markets will continue to decline generally. And I think property will take a downturn and that gold will be the only safe haven. Oil may be good, when the current nonsense is sorted. What are your views?
Thought provoking comment. I have been of the opinion that I would not consider buying this share until I reached £4.50p
But maybe it is better to wait until after the results before making any buying decision . The points you raised about debt and the possibility of no dividend being paid are certainly important points to consider. Also, the point I have made all along that no Director has shown any interest in these shares since they bailed out at the top of the market.
On the other hand, Pheonix continues to hold a significant holding in this shares and must be aware if the dividend is to be stopped. They also are in a business that should be extremely defensive. It has always been a rather boring share, but over the years it did rather well. Im surprised there is not more broker comment.....over the last five years or so, most of the recommendations have been to buy or hold at a price of £25.00plus to £5.70. I think in today's volatile market, there is no hurry to buy any share. Best to wait and see!
The snouts will be in the trough at the slightest hint of a turnaround. But absolutely no support at the present. I've always said that this is a solid business, but things have become more competitive. I am sure things will come good in time.....but I still say that at present £4.50p is a more realistic price, especially as there is no dividend!
Quite right! And obviously, the Directors of the company agree with you!
About a year ago I predicted that these shares would go to £4.50.....I still think that is a possibility. I will not touch these shares with a barge pole until I see the Directors buying back in!
Could a TAKEOVER be on the cards? I have seen shares like this before, that seem to be perfectly sound, but yet has a depressed price. I have held shares like this before and was at the brink of selling for something more exciting, when suddenly news is announced that drives the shares up by a third! I don't know why or how shares behave in this way.....but shares that do not shout at you or attract attention to themselves do so for a very good reason!!!
Well argued and tempting to get back in. However, why haven't the Directors bought back after getting out with such a massive profit? They don't seem quite as keen on the shares as you.
Ultimately this could be a good play. And maybe I was a bit harsh on my price prediction of £3.50...…...it could be with USA QE that all boats will rise in the next 12 months. But when the bubble bursts...…£3.50 may well still be on the cards!
The answer to that question is easy...….£3.50 I suspect that around that price the Directors might start buying the shares again. But do you know why they are not buying now? I suspect it is because they know that a major market correction is on the way. It that happens this Autumn then irrespective of the quality of any share, expect all prices to sink! It is not unusual for the market t take a 40% hit. So my £3.50 target is actually conservative. I am going easy on this particular share, because obviously they provide a service that will always attract customers. So they are not likely to go bust. But as with any share, it is very important to look at borrowings and to see how profits hold up.
Looks like this share is being dragged to hell! I shouldn't laugh!