Member Info for Aggr0memnon

Yeah, I remember the belly laughs when I said the SP would drop to 180 … nuff said. We shall see.

Just a back of envelope calculation. If Remgro wants out without writing down a loss, their original approx. 30% holding cost them £3.60 a share, which they flogged to their subsidiary Mediclinic by way of a rights offer . That was a bad buy as it has turned out. To break even now, if they could pick up the remaining 70% at £1.50 a share and take it private, that would give them a raw cost of around £2.13 a share, so to recoup other expenses and walk away completely, an eventual sale of the whole company at £2.30 a share would wipe their face. They would of course hope for more, but the little we mere mortals know at the moment is that some willing buyers are on board (more or less) at £2.30.

We can play around all day with What Ifs - but in order to secure the remaining 70% at £1.50 they would need to crash the SP below that … and with the current information we have, at £1.25 I will be back in!

This is just one possible scenario and I know that IF my Auntie had balls she’d be my Uncle, so I am sure the Groupthink police will tell me I’m wrong again, but the last time I looked we are all entitled to our opinions.

Whatever happens, GLA in navigating a way out of this mess!

My sentiments exactly Divhunter.

More like 1.66 methinks

Tell you what I imagine Laura, both Stewart and I, with less than 100 posts, probably have a life, whereas you must have been sitting on your backside a hell of a long time to write over 16,000 posts. Maybe that’s why you seem to have 4 chins :)))))

BTW, the 180 “that I will never see” looks like it’s coming later this week. What a surprise! I am locked and loaded (at less than 180 though). Maybe it will be your shares that I buy ?

IMHO, regardless of who is selling what and for what reason, the 6 monthly chart remains a thing of classic beauty. The SP is trickling down in a managed fashion, under low daily volumes. The low volumes suggest to me that no significant sell off by major holders is taking place, yet a simple extrapolation shows that, as some of us expected, the SP might well drop below 180 within the next ten days or so. And that will be at a critical time. The question then is whether there is good news on a bid to be coming through at that point or whether there will just remain a big hole where a bid should be … on balance my opinion, for what it is worth, is that everything is too damn quiet right now and at risk of missing out, I am keeping my, and Mrs Aggro’s spare pennies under the mattress for a while longer. I do think there logically has to be a take out at some stage - but if there is another potential player on the sidelines keeping his powder dry, why wouldn’t they wait to see what happens in a few days’ time when the game might really start ?

Just wondering, amongst those of you who have held LGEN within an ISA for a few years, whether it has proved best to exit just before XD date and try to buy back in at a nett lower price within the few days post xd date? Or do nothing, just let it ride and take the divs? My scalping, tinkering nature says I might be predisposed to do the former as the market is very twitchy, but I would appreciate others’ experience who have considered or practised this over the last few years.

Exactly Aldebaran!

Laura,

I mean this in the kindest possible way, and outside the scope of any discussion on shares.

Please, for the benefit of your own health, consult Google for information on narcissistic and paranoid personality traits, and seek professional help. I won’t interact with you any more.

Hi Bond, I have a few scars from previous similar takeovers, and they don’t always work out as expected, especially when things drag on as they are doing here. We often hear about wonderful surprise takeover offers and 50-100% or more uplifts in share prices, and tend to expect that to be the case all the time. With SPI, the product is good, the management of assets is imho terrible, and the board, which hopes to hold onto their jobs, is being forced to seek offers, probably against their “better” judgement. I just see that as a less than promising scenario. I am not really a chartist, but the managing down of the SP recently is a thing of beauty. It’s just a gut feel for me that it will or might go down below 180, the Board will then put their hands up and say “we tried”, and THEN the magic will happen, which will not benefit investors with entry points much above £2. All imho and by no means investment advice, but I get p*ssed off when serial rampers with not an ounce of mathematical nous or experience start flaming me for expressing a different view, like I have no right to speak. I might be right and I might be wrong, and I don’t like to see any PIs lose money in what seems increasingly to me to be a shady, suspect operation. If the SP shoots up to £4 tomorrow I will be happy for those who were right, but at my advanced age I choose my entry points a lot more carefully that I did maybe forty years ago.

Well pal, I will post where I want, and indeed I am not right all the time - who is? FWIW I still won’t touch ITV either at current levels. That’s just my view.

But I have a personal as well as a professional interest in how this plays out with SPI , and I would re-enter at 180 or just below. If that doesn’t happen, I lose nothing. I fully understand the Groupthink of people who think and hope they going to make a fortune from a takeover, good luck to you all and I genuinely wish you well. I just have differing views from some of you. I respect your right to express your views and in a perfect world you would respect mine. I don’t personally care if you all get rich or end up in the gutter, but I will always have my say. Your opinion means nothing to me, and by the same token if you don’t want to read mine, block me or ignore me, but my motives are clear, I will reenter if it goes below 180, if it doesn’t, no sweat and I haven’t lost anything. That’s all. The SP will look after itself.

I didn’t see value ABOVE 180. Do try and keep up! Sorry I seem to have invaded your cosy little mutual support club and dared to voice my personal opinion, which I reserve the right to continue doing.

Laura I am entitled to my views and will voice them as and when I damn well please. You don’t own this board and while making snide comments might do something to relieve your personal insecurities, they are totally uncalled for. I happen to hold a different view to you. That’s what makes a market. Get over it!

Interesting, if predictable, reactions! I might be wrong, and have been before. And so might the frequent posters on here. But I at least will have no buyer’s remorse if it falls to 180 as just below that will be my only (re)entry point. And then I would be happy with 250-275.

Take a look at the 6 monthly chart. It is a thing of beauty in the way it is being managed down. My take on it, and has been for some time, that the entry point will have to be around 180p because once its gets down to that level it will dip very briefly to around 175 and then the floodgates will open.

At that stage everyone will think 250p will be a wonderful deal.

Yes, actually I would, because the shake out would have happened by then. I agree with Kendall that SPI is a different kettle of fish to AA, and some on the left might argue that it is a strategic resource and should even be nationalised, but I do know that PE plays the same tricks all the time and I currently have too many doubts on both fronts to climb back in. Each to his own, I guess.

I agree and am suspicious. Google the way AA shareholders were stitched up by private equity. As a precondition for the bail out they had to increase their debt (think sale and leasebackof real estate in the case of SPI), then the cash released ended up back in the hands of the PE investors as part of the bailout deal, so the ordinary shareholders who had pushed up the SP were left carrying a big empty bag full of memories but no value. And to be fair if I were doing a PE takeover of SPI I would rinse and repeat. Until any terms of any deal are released I simply don’t see value above 180p, at least not yet. Not deramping, just the voice of experience, but I would climb in at that sort of price.

Genuine question, not deramping - given that we have reason to expect Malone’s remaining 5% will be placed in 60 days, isn’t the current little bounce just the calm before the second phase storm of realisation hits later today or tomorrow? Just looking dispassionately at the chart I see it going back below 59 and am wondering if anyone else sees it the same way.

Obviously we don’t know what if anything might be left unexposed, but I think the new CEO should get some credit for finding the issue and taking quick and decisive action. It’s a moot point whether the CFO jumped or was pushed, because either way this looks like negligence and incompetence. If it’s a one off, better to dump all the bad news now and clear the decks.

Just posted on X: The judge seems to have thrown out the Mushinge claim