What value Azer assets?8 Jan 2020 17:17
Whilst market interest and perceived potential in the Tilapia Field acquisition is understandable, the valuation placed upon it, as indicated by historical AAOG market capitalisation (£24m based on 238m shares @10p on 09.01.2019.) appears somewhat irreconcilable with the value placed on ZEN's Azer assets. To illustrate this point, compare Tilapia with the Zardab-Shikhbagy Field which is only 25% of ZEN's potentially productive Azer acreage.
The Tilapia licence area is c50sq km and the main reservoir and exploration targets within that area are the Pointe Indienne R1 & R2, Mengo and Djeno Sands, the volumetrics, petrophysical characteristics and recoverable oil and gas contents of which have still to be fully ascertained (ref CP Report Oct 2016).
The Zardab-Shikhbagy Field, on which I posted considerable detail in 2017/18, is 156sq km in area plus a possible c20sq km Gishlag extension, and apart from some very limited soviet era exploratory drilling (18 wells) is an undeveloped resource, not included in the CPR's 30.6Mbol 2P reserves, but with extensive known reservoirs in the Maykop, Eocene and Cretaceous.
Z-21, the subject of the blow-out video posted here on Monday and one of 6 wells on the Zardab High, was drilled during soviet times to c3050m into the Maykop and produced between 1095 and 146 bopd, declining as it became progressively sand-plugged during the course of a week. The blowout in 2017 was an unexplained and delayed response to a coiled-tube intervention which produced a 10-day periodicity in well-head pressure build-up to c4000psi, indicative of significant reservoir connectivity. Close proximity of Z-21 to Z-3, which the soviets flow-tested in 1979 at 2450-2800bopd from the Eocene between 3200m & 3500m, prior to well collapse, and to Z-7 the oil geochemistry of which indicates active oil up-flow from a 6000m+ deep source to the west, strongly suggests that Zardab and adjacent Shikhbagy are part of an active petrophysical system. Seismic profiles indicate the Eocene and Maykop extending over most of the 156 sq km and underlain by Cretaceous volcano-clastics and carbonates comparable with those of the adjacent Muradkhanli,Field from which production peaked at 10,000bopd in 1978.
Development of Zardab-Shikhbagy awaits a deep appraisal well to acquire essential geotechnical data and maybe additional seismic before initiating a drilling programme. Regardless of those preliminaries this asset alone appears to have a potential at least comparable with that of Tilapia and yet apparently totally ignored by the market. However, not at all surprising as 'the market' is demonstrably inept at anticipating value from geological resources of any kind.
AGEOS.