REDPSA & Tunisia Acquisition2 Mar 2020 16:44
From my perspective this appears to be positive news today with both the realignment in Azerbaijan and a second acquisition in Africa, ie Tunisia, consistent with long-term strategy. The failed rehabilitation efforts in Azer are unsurprising to anyone with geotechnical know-how, and more importantly, do not necessarily detract from prospective potential.
As I emphasised on 13.02.2020 the REDPSA agreement was effectively a dual contract with different operational obligations for each of the two components, the Contract Rehabilitation Area (CRA) and the Exploration Area (EA). Returning the CRA to SOCAR will as stated in the RNS “achieve a near total reduction of operating expenses in Azer”, at least for that part of the contract, whilst retention of the EA will enable Zena Drilling to operate the BD-260 within what is a c100sq km (double that of Tilapia) highly prospective area with potentially substantial oil reserves. If the c50sq km area designated for the Development Drilling Programme (DDP) is also retained, then M-247 and the Sarisu marsh area will be back in play with 'Probable' undeveloped reserves estimated at 43,520 MSTB (Thousand Stock Tank Barrels) from the M Eocene flanking traps (ref Chapman CPR 2016 pp 62). AC confirms in today's RNS that the “25-year REDPSA....remains intact, with regard to exploration activities to be undertaken during 2020 and potentially beyond.” so we await details of the intended exploration programme and the associated operational obligations.
As for the Tunisian asset, the ongoing negotiations with an oil major, to fund the acquisition via an offtake agreement and consequent avoidance of an equity issue, should, on completion, provide a significant boost to the mkt cap. Whatever proportion of the initial 700bopd production ZEN receives from the deal it should more than compensate for the loss of the current 180bopd Azer receipts and contribute significantly to positive cash-flow. Any resulting enhancement of SP from the current levels would then translate into a reduction in equity, currently c54m shares @ 0.925p, due as part payment for the Tilapia acquisition. For that sequential scenario to succeed, completion of the Tunisian deal must have priority over completion of the Congo Tilapia agreement. So an eventful month ahead.
AGEOS.