Adrian Hargrave, CEO of SEEEN, explains how the new funds will accelerate customer growth Watch the video here.
Did you read the paper Oxygen because its saying something very different to what you are saying. Specifically it says these trials are not even set up in a way that will provide proper evidence of whether vaccines used will actually diminish the death rate or even diminish transmission.
Agree its binary. But any of those 3 binaries coming to fruition will give major returns. 2 out of 3 are very high probability - BAMS and LFD. So whilst you shouldnt bet your house on anything, making it your largest holding could make sense l, depending on your needs and priorities. Reminds me of Tesla which I bought two years ago and held on premise risk of it going bust was very much lower than risk of it multibagging.
I think if grandparents are going to survive hospitality will need to stay shut down until after christmas or at most some partial openings for drink with meal. No return of scenes of young people just hustled together drunk on city streets. We cant keep undoing the hard work. many of the wet only establishments may have to change or die. And thats not such a bad thing as because of disorder and violence they probably do as much harm as good at the best of times, let alone in a pandemic
They need to get a grip of the public messaging. Its not complicated.
1. We need lfds to screen the population for people who may not have symptoms when they are tested but may still have the virus and be spreading it.
2. The lfds we have now are not that accurate but they will still good enough to help the goal of reducing the spread of the disease.
Not a saline tube in video. Also seems from innova website that their kits come with all the pieces included ( though you can opt out of including swabs).
Would have thought that with an order thus size wed be looking at 50p or even less. Its for 15 months started in september - though could be stockpiling for avacta launch. Could be looking at enough to supply more than 5 million a week all through 2021 at 50 p each
1.Innova 74 per cent accurate or around 50 when administered without supervision.
2 It serves a purpose for getting r rate down a bit but if you are looking for people to safely participate in mass events and shows and go on flights you need a lot better.
3. So what could Avacta get to? Clear hints in the summer that they were aiming for a high performance test with 95 per cent plus sensitivity. The wow factor sensitivity of the Elisa test should lead us to think that goal is on track.
4. The govmt pay about 7 quid a test for innova so they and other govmts might give well North of 10 for one that was so good in had a much more pronounced impact on the r rate, didn't need to be taken twice to give confidence about access to events, flights etc. , no reagent shortage worries, more stable manufacture leading to likely much lower fit failure rate and also sovereign and good for the future pandemic preparedness in the country
6. What about the scale of demand. The CEO say they will sell all they can manufacture and that the challenge is simply scaling manufacture. With a great test they will get more manufactuers and much greater capacity on board. Perhaps ramp to hundreds of millions by spring.
7. How long will the revenue endure? Avacta will be the last lfd test standing and will go on being produced at all the scale they can produce for a few years at least before one could imagine it tailing downwards.
8. I am guessing a sizeable uplift in next few weeks on tech transfer and an even bigger uplift on report of great performance figures weeks later. Then several further massive spikes as contracts and new manufacturers roll in and start to evidence the sheer scale of opportunity and its realisation.
9. If I had to make specific guesses I would say sp 2 pounds by early december l, at least 5 by late december and getting into double digits by spring.
10. The rises would not end there - ultimately I think the company can make an order of billions in profit from the test in total but it may take the best part of a year before that fully sinks in and the sp will continue to adjust upwards, going well North of 20 quid.
1. This is a well cashed up company and the high value partnerships and therapy trials potentials more than justify the sp on its own.
2.The diagnostic covid plays and its wider development as a diagnostic company is effectively a freebie thrown in.
3. Whatever the day to day fluctuations its going to go on a Northerly overall trend starting very soon.
4.The baseline for this assertion is that BAMS is speeding along in the validation process and their is every reason to think its going to produce a fantastic result - perhaps even equalling or supplanting pcr as the lab gold standard.
5.bidstats have shown the government are about to or may have already bpugh mass spectrometers which will supplement tje spare capacity that exists in the UK. Spare capacity in many other countries too.
6. A while back the government hatched a plan centred partly on use of mass spectrometers to double lab testing capacity, partly to enable very regular testing of NHS staff.
7. On another thread this morning it is noted that many universities have the machines which could be used to blanket test the student population on a regular basis, decreasing the extent to which they are spreading the virus.
8. One could also see them being used potentially in other large institutional settings e.g. factories and warehouses with large number of employees, prisons, large schools even.
9. We don't know what impact BAMS will have on the sp but I would expect the day within the next few weeks that we get the rns it will net us at least a double digit percentage rise and underpin further sp growth in the following weeks and months as people begin to realise it is a lot more than garnish.
10. The test is about a tenner a pop and presumably some sort of profit share with adeptrix. Our share could be a few pounds profit per test. This could ramp to 100s of thousands a day of tests in UK and millions globally, illustrating a potential to make more than pur market cap within a year.
11. The test can indicate the extent of your viral load which can enable effective triaging of your healthcare needs.
12.because its far cheaper than PCR it may ultimately not just supplement but supplant pcr use and is likely to endure longer - indeed since covid is endemic we could see downsized but still significant revenues many years out.
Clear buy and hold imho.
We dont know what the mapp competition is lile but with the use of affimers ours may prove the best in terms of performance. If we add 5-10 million or more globally per day to capacity its easy to see us making the market cap in profit in anything from a few months to a year depending on our share of the profits.
This is a total red herring. Some of the tests are using swab in mouth. If Avacta needs that to work well it will put it in. If it doesnt then it wont. The fact that they have checked performance of prototypes and the end product sent to cytiva without use of swabs and very should tell you all you need to know that they cracked how to get great results even without a swab. Indeed not just good results but great ones sinc This is presumably down to the qualiry of the affimers.
Listened to the clip and he says swab not too far up nose or rolled around back of mouth using saliva. So there is no issue with saliva per se at all. He did say it didnt work so well with saliva spit in the ones they tested. No reason to think we cant make a test that collects saliva via swab and the fact that we are endeavouring to collect it by a more difficult method just shows you how supremely confident management are in both the early samples and relatedly in the quality of affimers in producing high performance even in a hard to produce form of test