Its easy banamaman. Not everyone is a lth. Some money is hot money that just goes to wherever the action is. The Pfizer early data were seen as indicative that there will be a better way forward covid wise and that sent floods of money to stocks beaten up on covid like rolls royce, easyjet and so on. If the pandemic is actually brought under control over next few months by testing etc. that will be a further boon to those stocks. However, equally we are in the middle of a secular trend toward green energy production which just got further charged by Bidens win. So I expect eqt to have down days but potentially do very well overall
They hreoresented their results though as 94/100. They previous counted sensitivity misses that were the non infectious tail picked up on pcr. Encouraging that Klaus helped them make a really decent test. Wonder what he can help an affimer based test achieve s and s wise....
1.Vaccines are designed to promote effective immune response in face of covid infection not prevent covid infection.
2. A good vaccine taken up by half the population in 2021 would considerably reduce covid health impact to that half and, all other things being equal, reduce pressure on health services as a result.
3. We know vaccination doesnt stop you getting it and it seems unlikely it would stop you spreading it.
4.In fact the vaccinated who get it would potentially become more hazardous to the remaining population as they would be less likely to have clear symptoms from which to judge the need for isolation and may also in a small number of cases adopt an Im all right jack mentality.
5. Which brings us to what govmt will need to protect the health of that half. Will it adopt a tough luck refusenik approach? I think even if it morally wanted to it would be foolish to do so politically and economically.
6. What testing then. High quality mass testing of the population at large and for events, flight s, universities and schools and other contexts of large amounts of people with close proximity will be greatly needed still.
7.It will be needed alongside basic distancing and other precautions to keep the economy and social life not just technically fairly open but to provide reassurance for people when both doing the things they might have to do like work, school or public transport and the things that they would like to do such as hospitality, sport, leisure activities. Keeping rates low is also essential to having a health system functioning properly - where staff will rarely pass on or catch infection and few patients will have it, enabling a more normal - albeit covid secured - range of operations and other activities to be done.
8. The need for high quality fast tests to massive scale will persist for several years.
9. After that a significant degree of herd immunity may be built up in the vaccinated and non vaccinated general population which will lessen the need for such mass testing but not remove it.
10. New strains of the virus are liable to continue to develop with the potential for those already vaccinated to be less immune prepared for these. The strain coming back into some Danish folk from infected mink is already a potential case in point.
11. In general and particularly as testing reduces over time and manufacturing capacity increases governments and others will come to be particularly discerning on quality and cost.
12.produce even a good performing let alone best performing lfd and Avacta will become a focus of choice for govmts, other purchasers and manufactuers. It will be greatly superior on cost, convenience and safety - capable of being used safely and easily at home without people needing to go to a centre staffed by professionals.
13. BAMS could not only still supplement but supplant the pcr market due to lower cost and ability to detect how much virus is present in a sample and t
Nice thread folks. Normally I would not invest more than 10 or 15 per cent of my portfolio in a single share. This is about 30. Nothing is risk free in shares but this so many positive drivers and affimers appear to be exceptional for both diagnostics and therapeutics.
Key to understanding risk for a lth is that BAMS is a nailed on dark horse and alone will end up supporting a doubling of the sp in next two years. The other stuff is a bucketloads of gravy that we will very likely get on top.
For the LFD remember also Avacta Elisa test detects the virus in samples of 1 FIVE HUNDREDTH of the concentration of a typical competitor test. So phenomenally sensitive DUE to the affimers. It really explains why if anyone can produce a great saliva LFD it will be us. It gives every reason to believe it will be incredibly sensitive so as be able to detect virus in a person very early after they gave been infected. Compare that to stuff like the Innova, SD biosensor and Abbott tests which are typically distortedly advertised as very sensitive when they are not good at picking up presence of virus in lower concentrations and wont be effective in catching pre and a symptomatics.
Not long to wait now.
The derampers and fell out of bedders and put in force this morning. Pivotal moments coming. At latest:
By early dec tech transfer
By mid dec BAMS validation.
By late dec validation od LFD for prof use and performance figures.
Plus a plethora of other things that are likely to happen in next two to three months
Apologies - gone back and read the Abingdon contract for 70 m and it says its particularly for antibody. Nonetheless, get the feeling that things are brewing behind the scenes. Some of these contracts are published way after the fact of them even being completed - including an earlier 10.3m one to Abingdon. We know that there yas been a call to BIVDA to see what spare capacity their members have for antigen. And we know sovereign supply is important, making it necessary to plan and bring the components in place so as to hit the ground running. And we had a hint from Avacta that their position with the govmt is the subject of an NDA.
Pcr also detects the long tail when a person is no longer infectious. Better to have BAMs for this reason as well as it will enable people to get out of isolation and off covid wards or back to work etc. In a timely manner.
Will be back in the Paris agreement which is a great start. Then Biden will be able to do a fair bit on the Green side through executive power. And he may get bipartisan support for some initiatives, especially as power of fossil fuel lobby wanes. Many states themselves are making increasing efforts as well and will at least have the President behind them.
In the q and a AS referred to potentially getting up to 10s of millions just from UK manufacturing and up to 120 m with additional manufacturing from SE Asia. He referred just prior to that not just to the end manufacturers of the kit but to different businesses working on supplying different elements into that. A while back there was a bidstat for abingdon getting 10.2m to supply elements for tests with antibody explicitly mentioned indicating it was the ukrtc antibody test. Very recently they have been given a much larger contract of 70m though for lateral flow test kits. It doesn't mention antibody this time as far as I can see. Could be interesting. Such a large contract would be enough to supply I would guess the materials for something like 50 million kits. Now this could be for antibody but would you prioritise that right now? Or it could be for someone elses lfd but we dont know of Abingdon working on an lfd with anyone except Avacta. We also heard months back that Carclo at its site near BBI in South Wales was ramping its plastics for diagnostic tests.
I think what AS was hinting at, and what we are doubtless seeing behind the scenes, is that companies have come together either informally or more likely also with support and encouragement of the government to. Garner together all the stuff they need to hit the ground running. In fact a teaboy twitter post highlighted Abingdon speaking about the need to plan all these things in advance. It almost read as if they were signaling this is what they had been doing and may well be what the 70m contract is for.
The one with the mink might be more troubling as its in and out of an animal so could be quite different. Relevant cross ramp here is that I am invested in scancell which are in the early stages of producing a DNA based vaccine that if it works well will also work well for new mutations.
Yes the 75m is obviously very big but not clear its for antibody just says lateral flow related contract for Abingdon doesnt it?