Member Info for adzy2k11

Betabuck is right, if you must invest go long the bond and short the stock as your hedge

Gap filled - back up we go

thanks all

thought it was today

Does someone kind posting please?

Many of you seek to be missing the fact that those who subscribed in the 500p placing could have sold for 75% profit on the open market when it rose to 875p soon after. They don’t necessarily have to still be holding from that price

Betabuck - why you delete your previous profile???

That’s only based on what we’ve been told thus far. Based on the body language and tone of JQ at the post earnings meeting, and the language of the subsequent TCG RNS release, I suspect something is up (another bidder is in here) and is why I closed my short on Monday (announced on here yesterday). I don’t have this information, I’m just basing it on intuition after the FTG meeting

How long would NK not be able to buy/sell for if this is true?

Paste the full article

Not going to get greedy, this is enough from me, held all the way through the last short squeeze, and don’t think it’s worth staying until the end. Good luck all.

We’re up something like 45% before retracing

Don’t just call me a dreamer, come up with your own real numbers to back up your ramble! If you know how to value a stock that is?

agreed.
This is optimistic but following the proposed recap, assuming £1.0bn of new equity from Fosun’s cash injection and bondholder debt-to-equity swap, this points to EPS of 0.5p (over 80% dilution). If I then assume historic EBIT margins of 3% return and give the new (low debt) company can trade at a 10x 2020 multiple, then I get target price of 9.5p. Many assumptions on that of course, but not beyond the realms of possibility.

have you got a link to the video? I recall them saying single digits... not "couple of p"

You need to still make assumptions around four areas of sensitivity:
? The total amount of new equity that will be issued to Fosun. - 450m
? The amount of equity that will be issued to debt holders in return for them writing off those liabilities. - 450m + 500m (which is what I estimate is the amount of equity issued to bond holders with face value of 1.65bn debt) = 950m total
? The scope for margin recovery from current levels. 3%?
? The multiple that the resultant business should trade at. 10x 2020 P/E

Stifel Nicolaus - "We remain unable to construct meaningful forecasts and valuation, hence our unchanged Suspended rating"
interesting how some on here are able to come up with 1-2p forecasts when really there is too many unknowns to do so

behave... take your d*ck out of your hand...

gav is full of BS, making up 4p prices.

where?