Member Info for adzy2k11

only 20% of a 30-day ADV... right before Nesat returns from the Turkish 4-day holiday tomorrow? lol

Buck - you keep quoting 1p but you need to also make an estimate on the multiple and margin and EPS for the new business. There is an argument to be made that it should re-rate because of lower debt levels, and if TCG get their act together and streamline other costs there’s a possible return to positive EPS like two years ago.

Looks increasingly likely that NK bought his initial stake from Invesco.

Invesco RNS on 29 July shows they went from 8.54% down to 3.94% on 26th July = 4.6% decrease = 71m shares.
NK RNS on 31 July showed he bought 4.76% and the threshold was crossed on the same date = 26th July.

This would explain why NK was able to buy a big stake without moving the price. He probably bought in a block, off-exchange, directly from Invesco. The daily volume of 26 July was 26m (only about a third of the 71m that changed hands that day).

Sorry to hear that. It has more chance of going to 1p than 100p

are you winding us up?

agree on metro, maybe not by year-end but my time horizon is end-2020 and price target 5-10gbp.
I'm 3/4 position size now.

does the amount affect the price of the issuance?
They had a bonding facility totalling £875 million (maturing 2022) before, so if you add150m gbp to that then you get to the 1.15bn (1bn gbp) Euro bond debt they cite in the new RNS.
So again quoting the RNS: "the proposed recapitalisation will require a reorganisation of the ownership of the Tour Operator and Airline businesses which would result in a significant amount of the Group's external bank debt (£650 million) and bond debt (€1.15bn) being converted into equity, resulting in a substantial deleveraging of the Group" ...

so 1.6bn is the amount for the D/E, and if you assume "significant" is anywhere from 50-100% that's 800m to 1.6bn for the D/E swap? what did I miss?

for what it's worth (butthey've been right on the stock so far) Citi's base case assumption is that the D/E issuance takes place at 5p. but that's a wild assumption.

yeah, can probably see that gap filling.

who knows

but we don't know if their average price is 10-12p. We only know the date on which the threshold was crossed: 05-08-2019. They only need to report when they cross >3% I believe (correct me if i'm wrong), so they could well have been accumulating earlier and then only passed the reportable threshold on 5th (i.e. they might well have bought some at 10-12p but the avg. price might well be lower)

maybe he's on vacation? turkey is off Monday-Thursday this week.

no idea what his play is. very confusing.

so for him to have completely sold he would have to have been 80% of ADV by himself. unlikely. plus it's holiday in turkey from Monday to Thursday so we may seem some action later this week/next week.
If he does sell we will need to obviously report.

@ buck - I would not call it "lots of shares" ... there's been 156m shares traded in the last 5 trading days (8th Aug to 14th Aug). Interesting to see the much lower volume on the round trip compared to the 6 days before that = 921m shares traded from 31 July to 7 August.

Also from the RNS "the proposed recapitalisation will require a reorganisation of the ownership of the Tour Operator and Airline businesses which would result in a significant amount of the Group's external bank debt (£650 million) and bond debt (€1.15bn) being converted into equity, resulting in a substantial deleveraging of the Group"... so that's approx GBP 1.7bn for the total amount for D/E. A "significant amount" could mean anywhere from 50%-100%, so let's take the middle amount and assume it's 75% = 1.28bn equity raise = 25.6bn new shares.

@Paul - in the RNS it states "The discussions with noteholders include the injection of additional capital on top of the previously announced £750 million. This additional capital, of approximately £150 million, will provide further liquidity headroom through the coming 2019/20 winter cash low period and ensure the business can continue to invest in its strategy".
so the 150m is from noteholders, not Fosun

well it's now disappeared... imagine a CEO writing to employees stating that he's "very surprised" anyone is buying their shares. wow.

or it's fake? Why would he say he "found this online"?

Fair. Although won’t be much left of 2019 after d/e. If you’re going to stick with this then you have to be willing to wait until end of next year to see if the turnaround works.