Member Info for Adw198

Oh dear WOS - I see you can’t find a single things I’ve actually said to disagree with so you once again resort to fictitious quotes eg

“Mr ADW scream at people that '$10M need to fund 2025 well drilling'“

Ive never said that. I have quoted what it costs to bring a well to production. None of which will be happening this year. If the 4-6 producing wells Thorn told us to expect this year were to happen I suspect they’d need more like $20m. But as I say that’s not happening as even Thorn now admits. The blockbuster AGM and 100days of prioritising production came to absolutely nothing.

“Let’s not forget we have £1.5 million coming this month“

Based on what? The facts are that between production starting on 25th October and January 16th they us they had $600k of stored revenue.

So according to your figures between January 17th and 31st March they somehow massively increased the revenue generated over a shorter timeframe?

Facts and figures v baseless ramping.

And this is from the guy who is to expect £5m - £10m revenue over this period.

I appreciate the answer but it remains unanswered where the cash (and losses) is going then.

If you’re right and all expenditure is indeed $250k a month I’d agree there would be no raise. The fact the CEO called cash tight suggests you’re wrong but we’ll see soon enough. I wonder which months expenditure he was referencing though as clearly they’re not all the same depending on whether they’re drilling or paying for the new licences - the latter alone equates to another circa $40k a month.

To all those who don’t want to examine the company finances that’s fine, dismiss the well researched facts and subsequent analysis as trolling (even those who apparently can’t read the content but are still able to label it!).

Morning manx

The question was read out as

“What are the monthly operating costs running at for full operation of the company”

The answer was given as

“I don’t have that to hand but it’s less than the money that’s going to be coming in when we get paid for the oil that’s in storage”

A clever answer in my opinion as what he’s not said in the monthly revenue will exceed the monthly expenditure. He’s said the total money coming in (for 5months production) exceeds the monthly revenue.

Do you honestly think the full expenditure for the company is circa $250k a month and if so can you explain where all the cash is going and what’s causing the much higher losses they’ve published?

“The H1 production, yet to be increased, already more than covers the cost of overheads and salaries of the company as stated by MB at the AGM“

Sorry Manx this isn’t accurate, unless you’re strictly limiting it to salaries and rent (and not total expenditure). And even if he did say that we know for a fact it’s not true given what we know about cash burn even before there was investment in the renewables, new licences and costs of being a producer. They started H2 2024 with circa $10m and ended it with circa $3m. $7m worth of expenditure - of course we can earmark several million to drills but hard to get that figure higher than $5m at absolute most, leaving another $2m cash burn. Broadly similar to the amount going out of the door in years without material drilling.

“The Group's net loss after tax for the twelve months ended 31 December 2023 was $5.93 million (31 December 2022: loss $2.95 million).“

Income circa $200-250k. Nowhere near self sustaining, it’s just another oft repeated fallacy never supported by figures. And they currently want to carry out work on some or all of Heron 1, 2, Gobi and Gazelle.

“Or just don't let yourself get dragged into endless titles for tat 'debates' (they're not debates and you can't 'win').”

Fully agree, you can’t win because time after time you lot get fact checked. Lie after lie, baseless ramp after baseless ramp.

Ruining the discourse with the same innate nonsense and obsession with controlling the headers.

Objectively, a cash call is coming because the company is NOT self sustaining.

Get real is what you manage to do in stocks you’re not invested in Thorn. Here’s it’s just shameless ramping like today’s contribution predicting a 60% rise based on an RNS you can’t explain.

The cash burn far, far exceeds that Tenbag. I’ve never said they have £2m left - I’ve said I estimate LESS than $1m. And I explained why.

There won’t be £1.5m coming in either. Even your partner in crime Abzzba only estimated $1.5m and he wrongly included April in his calcs. Either way, a long way from the £5m - £10m you told us to expect. So who is confused and silly now?

They went through $7m in the 2nd half of last year and lost several million the year before - and that was without as much investment in renewables and now the new licences.

An objective analysis tells us the cash call is coming.

Is this what it’s come to Thorn? Zero input in any the discussions around short term financing issues, nothing on the possible remediation work plan - just speculating they’ll be an RNS (the substance of which you avoid) that will apparently lead to a 60% rerate in the SP? Whilst insisting it’s a certainty they’ll be a deal this year, also for reasons you’re unable to article.

There’s being positive and there’s ramping. You’re just a ramper mindlessly talking your own book. Shameless.

@manx I’m definitely a layman and like you just trying to decipher / interpret the company statements. IMHO this type of exchange is exactly what a board like this should be for.

At the risk of repeating myself I can’t get away from the fact they were so clear in the January RNS that when they went above 200bopd they encountered sand but they had a straightforward fix for that would be done in Spring. But by March the story was a little different. Your explanation / interpretation is fair and valid though.

Hopefully the decent holders like yourself can drink something better than a Blue Nun if you’re right :)

Hi Manx

Thanks for the polite reply and apologies if it came across as me goading you - I wasn’t and have found you polite and reasonable.

As you say the timestamp you provided was the pressure issue, which I understand (perhaps incorrectly) to be different. If the sand and pressure was no longer an issue I don’t know why they wouldn’t have open it up to >200bopd? Perhaps that have and have choosen to hold that back from the market, but I’m very dubious about that.

Ultimately I think you and I are in broad agreement that we don’t really know what the fix will be because the company themselves didn’t know (in March). My point is the certainty offered in January appeared to have decreased 2 months later. Quite possible I misunderstood but hopefully my reasoning and research is also within a range of reasonable.

The certainty is offered by other posters, usually without any supporting evidence.

Anyway, all the best mate - suspect we’ll get some news this week or next.

“It's all so much nonsense Hamm.“

I’m quoting official releases and giving verbatim quotes from the AGM. Others are having wet dreams about sovereign wealth funds because a man called WOS on a bulletin board told them that’s the truth.

Chalk and cheese.

Unfortunately for the rampant rampers, there was indeed a change of language from the January to March releases.

January was clear that IF sand remained an issue when they tried for >200bopd they’d fix it in Spring

“Stable production of over 200 barrels of oil per day is being maintained. At higher rates, reservoir sands are produced along with the oil and the installation of sand screens offers a cheap solution to this and will be programmed for the spring if the well continues to perform in this way“

By March there no mention at all of sand, or the planned work, as they were still looking at the data and options.

“The Heron 1 well continues to produce steadily at c. 200 barrels of oil per day. Pressure data is being acquired to facilitate production analyses to determine what modifications can be performed to increase the sustainable production capacity of the well“

Of course Manx told us they announced in the AGM that sand was no longer an issue which Thorn typically immediately believe. However nobody has provided a time stamp for that and infact they listed sandscreens as one of the potential fixes,

“what intervention strategies such as the installation of sandscreens and / or a 3 stage separator are technically and commercially merited”

So nobody knows what work is planed because the latest news from March (twice) said they’re looking into it. Given it’s now May hopefully we can all agree that’s well into spring.

As I’ve repeatedly said I agree they’ll increase production, I just don’t pretend to know how, at what cost or to what extent.

“Only an absolute idiot would raise prior to expanding on these and you know it”

They’ll raise when they need money, which is basically now. The production revenue doesn’t cover expenditure so it’s quite straightforward.

That’s a good post Abzzba.

The May payment won’t include Aprils production though and I wouldn’t necessarily agree it definitely “said we will be paid Daqing bench for the month it was produced” (that’s going forward, but fairly minor either way)

“Petro Matad's invoices for the production from the Heron 1 well for the period 24 October 2024 to 31 March 2025 have been submitted and, under the agreement, will be processed for payment during the month of May.“

“Sometimes, due to the stupidity of your average AIM investor it doesn't happen as they don't realise that there's a risk of missing out (Stock, Adw, Doc etc)!“

People like you who are underwater but feel the need to lie about it should show some humility thorn.

I’m not sure what RNS you’re expecting that would lead to a missed opportunity, but I know you won’t answer as you prefer these silly little ramping messages. It’s the price of being over exposed in a cash strapped Mongolia oiler.

I prefer your commentary on AVCT where you’re able to post more objective analysis

Anyone who doesn’t think they’ll be a raise is entitled to that view, just like I believe there will be.

I’ve already shared the financials (quoting from RNS) showing the cash burn rate last year and ballpark current balance, but there’s also the Investor Meets from last July when he said this about why they raised

“Our business is primarily one of risk management….We’d have been entirely reliant on 1 well in a basin known for its unpredictability. Any negative incident or underperformance would nave been a major concern for the company and raising money in an emergency and raising money in those circumstances would have been extremely difficult.

But the raise allowed the company

“Fund ourselves for an exciting programme and improve the chance of higher production, higher revenue and have some back up in the event of stuff happening which occasionally it does”

All of that is still true now and will be basis of this years raise, albeit I expect much smaller than the $9m flight of fancy last year.

Timestamp 1h 3mins.

“Ok, I haven't made much of a success of stock market investing, so the last thing I am going to do is to try and influence other people in terms of their decision making. I'm just not in any way fit or qualified to do that."

I don’t advise anyway, nor do I call people stupid for selling in November, or otherwise condescend about 10year charts.

How much are you down here Investor whilst dishing it out?!

I’m not one for re posting but I do think the below deserves some further admiration. Where’s the money gone!?

“The net proceeds of the Fundraising will primarily be used to commence production from the Heron Field, with the completion of the Heron 1 well and the drilling of the H2 and H3 wells. Production start-up is anticipated in mid 2022 using nearby processing and export facilities”.

“Remember -

Proinvestors monthly figures assumes 250 barrels a day . That should increase to 800 + over next 6 months”

That was research in December. Another one whose expectations / predictions have completely gone to pot yet he’s seemingly delighted with things.

These people are either lying to themselves or to everyone else. Another one sat on huge losses, into deep to be rationale.

And they have the cheek to attack others who take a more objective view.

“Footy on in the background, why are you telling us this ?”

More question. Tell me why you lied about not being down and I’ll tell you why