Member Info for adoubleuk

johnpwh,

"What is deid? I tend not to take any notice of peeps who cant spell.

Remarkably enough, it's actually listed in many dictionaries as s 'Scottish' spelling of the word 'dead'.

( Cf encyclopedia entries regarding literary spelling abilities of people who drink in 'The Grill' bar, Union Street, Aberdeen)

Sorry, Longwait! I thought it was MTV who posted that. Coming from you, I understand, now.

MTV,

"Being a LTH of HUR shares is rather like being on a very long cruise and witnessing one passenger after another jump overboard because they have become convinced that it is going to sink."

And what, pray, is your evidence for this? Do you actally know or have met any longterm holders in HUR shares?

I feel it's more like being on a warship, which is forever being pestered by ne'r do wells trying to attach limpet mines to it, suicidal fools trying to ram it with small boats loaded with explosives, or other idiots attempting to attack it with smallbore weapons. And every time, although such events initiate calls to 'action stations'. and may cause new crewmembers to panic a bit, the miscreants are invariably seen off, usually with great losses to their side.

MTV,

"Being a LTH of HUR shares is rather like being on a very long cruise and witnessing one passenger after another jump overboard because they have become convinced that it is going to sink."

And what, pray, is your evidence for this? Do you actally know or have met any longterm holders in HUR shares?

I feel it's more like being on a warship, which is forever being pestered by ne'r do wells trying to attach limpet mines to it, suicidal fools trying to ram it with small boats loaded with explosives, or other idiots attempting to attack it with smallbore weapons. And every time, although such events initiate calls to 'action stations'. and may cause new crewmembers to panic a bit, the miscreants are invariably seen off, usually with great losses to their side.

Beerbull,

' Long term oil is history.'

Well said, that man! 'Peak Oil is a myth that's been well and truly shoved in its grave.

Oh, or did I misunderstand you? Were you implying that reliance on hydrocarbons is a thing of the past? In that case, if referring to the last hundred and twenty years or so, I guess you're right. Unless you include coal, which goes back a bit further. But it's also the present.

Dunno about the future, because that hasn't happened yet, so by normal definitions of time, doesn't exist. If you believe in such 'normal' definitions of time.

On which subject, what the devil are you people doing up at such an ungodly hour on a Sunday morning? I've got an excuse, 'cos there's a poker game starting in La Rochelle at two.

Lousy weather for driving, but at least there won't be much traffic. Sorry to leave you, but must go and pollute the atmosphere again.

Daltry,

I don't get the significance. Everyone knows that it's 'The Western capitalist nations' responsible for all the ills of the world, and it's up to them to 'mend their ways'. And anyway, Greta would have a hard time getting to the place shown in the clip on a sailboat.

Oh, forgot to add this:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x75bt6

haggis_trap,

"I think my problem is we are one RNS away from disaster."

No, I think your problem is that you worry too much. It'll lead you to an early grave, laddie. Nowt wrong with that, but a more fun way of getting there is drinking lots of whisky and stop bothering with nationalistic politics and petrogeology.

You sound like yet another of those people who actually WANTS the EPS to fail. If Rommel had had troops like you, he'd never have made it out of Berlin.

tinfittings,

"Well thats all great then PIs had their share value reduced but heyho ADUK says its fine .You do wax lyrical one sided BS"

As I mentioned, the CFO said that a fundraise of some sort was going to happen, involving 'a slug of equity'. If I recall correctly it was in interview with Malcy, maybe three months before the event.

And that's what happened, raising a record-breakin sum for it's kind, financing Lancaster EPS.

" You never respond on the subject the high MCap HUR has."

Am I supposed to? What's wrong with the 'high' Mcap?, at present being eroded by shorters and so on? You work for the Kremlin or something?

Albi1

" Selling at this point, in my view, would lock in losses and be a mistake. "

For anyone who initially bought in higher, yes, of course.

For people who have held for longer, and still are 'in profit', then it's a question if their longterm belief in the company still holds, I guess.

Or again, it might just be they need some cash in a hurry, so have decided to take it now, rather than wait out another volatile period.

I guess it all depends on peoples' 'appetite for risk', another thing you mention. And that of course is a personal thing. But if there's something I know well, if you like to live riskily, patience is a primordial necessity. Not even a virtue, a necessity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACSeVC6umzg

tindrumgambler,

You responded to a (I suspect rhetorical and rather satirical) question from 'Longwait', which was:

"Somehow, HUR was able to explore Lincoln and Warwick without having to raise dosh. How do you explain that?"

Your 'answer' was

"Yes it was by a massive share dilution that the analyst talks about."

I'm a bit surprised that nobody else has commented on your response, because it's utter stuff and nonsense and factually untrue. But I suppose the lack of response is that many people have already filtered any of your posts, so don't get to read them. 'Cos the majority are similar nonsense as well. However, the 'filter button' is something I have never used.

The exploration well on Lincoln took place in 2016, and its successful drilling along with that on Halifax was supported by a small fundraise in October of that year. It came as a bit of a surprise, because the proposed campaign was only for Lancaster 7 / 7z, but through things like 'shipwatchers' checking on rig contracts and so on, it became obvious that the scope was going to be extended.

I suspect the ' massive share dilution that the analyst talks about' to which you refer was that of June 2017. It was on the cards anyway, and obliquely refered to by the CFO as a 'slug of equity', so nobody could say they weren't warned. Sure, a few months earlier there was an unexpected 'warrents issue' to cover a cash-crisis which nobody had expected, and which caused controversy, but that was a different issue, and didn't represent 'dilution' at all at the time.

The 'big fundraise' which did, had absolutely nothing to do with Warwick, nor Lincoln. It happened to finance the Lancaster EPS. Refurb of the FPSO, making the new buoy, getting all that stuff into place along with the other material costs, and so on.

The latest drilling campaign (initial exploration well on Warwick, the rather 'iffy' Warwick Deep, the very successful Lincoln Crestal, and the latest Warwick West), was financed by a 100% free-carry by Spirit Energy in exchange for a 50% interest in the GWA. With further participation in appraisal next year, for which a rig contract has already been provisionally established.

These are very basic FACTS, which anyone with even a relatively short-term knowledge of the company could tell you, just as I'm doing now.

If you can't even get these 'basics' correct, whatever makes you think anyone's going to take the least interest in the rest of the rubbish you write?

Jiffybag,

"Out of all the brokers out there, there are only 2 for me that cut the mustard "

One of which being Edison. And I'm not entirely sure if they're active 'brokers', or not. But one must always read the small print, which at the bottom of the article to which you sent the link starts with this:

"This report has been commissioned by Hurricane Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hurricane Energy. "

In other words, Edison's reports cannot be considered entirely impartial, as Hurricane is one of their clients who pays for such reports to be issued.

However, I find the 'Edison reports' highly valuable, in that they sometimes provide detailed technical knowledge which Hurricane has provided them with and which can't be found elsewhere, or maybe not until a couple of years later, or which is maybe hidden in long and complicated presentations which may have been published elsewhere, and which one can miss.

I'm unsure as to how much credence can be given to their 'valuations', just like any other brokers' reports, but on occasion consider their updates as 'mini-CPR's'

MTV,

"So that could be four months of waiting and little growth in the SP, hardly inspiring."

Maybe not. But nevertheless, since when does anything grow in the winter months? Dunno what your problems are, but they ain't mine, and I don't care about them anyway. Have fun in Mauritius.

MTV,

First, to answer some personal questions:

"Wondering too about your lifestyle and waitresses 1/3 your age! Do you have royal connections?"

Continue wondering. None of your business. Jealous? Or do you prefer chasing the underage ones in Mauritius? And yes, I do have very vague. Or rather used to, once. Knew someone who was 13th in line to the Throne at the time, he played keyboards in a rock band with which I had close connections. No contact for decades, though.

"Amusing that you are now trying to discredit DSPP "

Yup, I find it amusing, and even more amusing that you should come back in such short order in his defense, which I think he could surely do by himself without your help if I've got completely the wrong end of the stick. But the fact you've barged in so quickly makes me suspect I haven't.

A further excerpt from one of dspp's posts, thelemon, 10:59 yesterday:

"HUR is at a stage and level of risk where there are still some total failure pathways that could cause an investor to lose all of his/her money. Some of the bumps could very well be fatal.

2. In the success case Rona Ridge (which is HUR for now) will have $-bn capex bills coming their way for about a decade or more. Perhaps $20-bn would be a quite reasonable funding requirement. On that basis, even in the success case, it would be unlikely that HUR should contemplate paying a dividend for a decade.

.....

A lot of people who are investing here seem to be taking on a lot of risk on the basis that others are too, without a great deal of personal understanding. That sounds like a shoe-shine boy. I have seen these sorts of fields go very badly wrong despite the best efforts of very many clever people."

This is not 'dispassionate stuff', even though I agree with bits of it. Like Hurricane has never proposed a dividend, and may never do so. And yes, I too have seen some fields go wildly haywire. Thought they were usually being promoted by scammers.

No, sorry, I've suddenly ceased to sympathise with the 'dspp fanclub'. If he'd kept his stuff to 'tech', with maybe the occasional grump about how the SP affected himself, or an occasional back-paqt when things went well, OK. But it's no longer that.

Trust gone, completely.

MTV,

My, you work long hours as well.

Does BP or someone like them have an officefull of people like you, just trolling the BB's?

Or are you on the beach in Mauritius?

dspp,

A quote from you here at 20:36:

"As we all know "however comma" and "more studied required" are feared phrases in any funders' ears. I think we all know the implications and therefore await the necessarily much-anticipated clarifications. I shall go back to my day job until then."

Now a quote from you at 14:39 on the lemon, just a tiny part of a lengthy post including graphs and all sorts of things the limited wordcount on this BB can't encompass:

"Now it could just be coincidence of the way they have managed both wells during each month, and month-by-month, but that is one heck of a coincidence ! I have yet to see anyone out there in the investment community do even this trivial analysis (I am available for hire by the big boys ....)"

Or another bit, further down your very lengthy post.

"I am by the way very worried at what I see out there on the various bulletin boards as it shows that there are too many folk with too much at risk, who really have no idea of the level of risk at play here."

Really?

Maybe it's uncharitable of me, but unless it involves people I have personally met who've taken some sort of stock-exchange 'hit', or some other misfortune, I couldn't give a monkey's about anyone else's 'risk factors' holding the same shares that I do. Their problem, not mine.

In fact, your post seems full of such 'concerns'. And similar references to 'PI holders', trading, and so on.

Who are you? Mother Theresa? And how come, with all your technical knowhow (which you obviously have) you're not already working for one of the 'big boys'? Or is that a fib? Or simply not a 'big boy' oil company, but as a tech consultant to some relatively big financial trading house?

Sorry, you've blown your cover through over-enthusiasm. I don't know who it is you work for, don't want to guess, and I don't suppose you'll tell us little guys (and gals) here, but all the stuff you're feeding isn't impartial, is it?

JiffyBag,

Hey, the nightshist's at it again, isn't it? But I replied to your last post without killing two birds with one stone.

Last phrase:

"It is now up to Dr T, to rebuff their allegations and issue a statement forthwith!"

I disagree.

That would be childish. We've been told there will be an EPS update sometime this month. I look forward to it, and equally hope it's simply as detailed, factual and honest as poss. But the actions of some vocal stock-traders should have no influence on WHEN such a report is released.

Jiffybag,

"I actually think that Lemon Fool has actually unknowingly trashed the HUR SP. "

'Unknowingly'??????????

That site is populated by all sorts of dubious characters, seemingly 'experts' in all sorts of things, who seem to be 'well connected' to all sorts of people, or so one sometimes finds out. A number of them having been chucked off other BB's due to assorted misdemeanors. And I'm not just referring to O&G here.

But yeah, some people (or brokers) have recently 'trashed' the SP, but don't care, 'cos they make money whether it goes up or down.

Beware, and also, be cynical! Only way to keep sane when so many conflicting messages are being bandied around. Or at least, that's how I look at things.

Oil's 'out of favour'? Not for me, it isn't. My car doesn't run on wind, so I'll continue filling the tank with diesel. And if Greta Thumbsuck and her followers tell me I'm being a naughty boy by doing so, well f*** them. (Not that I'd be so perverse to think of ever doing that.) If I ever want to go by sea across the Atlantic, I'd prefer it to be on a vessel which has got more than a bucket as toilet facilities, thanks.

WWN,

"There is no specific mention of ‘perched water’ or ‘stranded water’ in the CPR for Lancaster that I can find. "

I take it you are referring to the 'latest' 7 May 2017 Lancaster CPR, of which I have a printed bound copy, and yes, you are correct. I spent a while this evening searching through it with a fine toothcomb, and can't find a mention of the phrase 'perched water'. However, there are numerous references to 'formation water', and its possible percentages during relatively 'new' flow rom the two wells involved in the EPS. So again, to my (confirmation-biased?) view, this refers to water-bearing 'zones' maybe intersected in the horizontal sections, and nothing to do with the far lower-lying aquifer which is providing the pressure-drive.

To revert to some simplified models of how FB works, the very fact that oil can be found in them is due to that very coarsely-described 'top downwards jellyfish effect'. Effectively ,meaning that the likelihood of oil filling up the 'buried hill' without some water getting in there as well is terribly slim.

But it's got nothing to do with the aquifer, and absolutely nothing to do with 'draw-up of water from the aquifer once the well is put on production, neither.

I'd suggest some people do some re-reading on the background to Bach Ho. Developing that field ran into a lot of water problems, 'til the remedies were found. But peak production about a decade ago was in excess of 200, 000 bbl/day. And not even Piper Alpha achieved that.

JiffyBag,

"Do you believe in Dr T's assessment or LemonFool's graphs ?"

I trust my gut-instincts. Which can be wrong, sometimes, but as I don't try to influence others, and if my gut-instincts are wrong, I've only got myself to blame, and if I lose, it's just me that loses. Nobody else, I hope.

Our friend is obviously a very knowledgable person, technically. But someone who writes on many BB's and suspect does so pretty much fulltime. Even more than myself, and with far more detail, cobbled-together by himself from public-domain stuff, but 'enhancing' it.

Lately, with an implicit 'negative slant', even if its only linking the OGA graphs (adding others of his own design), and saying there may be 'cause for concerm'.

I write long, and go into 'technicals', but that's because I'm retired, and have time on my hands, except when I'm on the road or playing cards. Or chatting with waitresses young enough to be my grandchild, or other fun things like that.

I took the time earlier to put forward my own point of view regarding DSPP's 'statistical analysis', because frankly, I think it's full of holes.

Take of this what you will.