Member Info for adoubleuk

WWN,

"The perched, or stranded, water we have experienced is consistent with our reservoir model... " (HUR)

"They quote the base case, but don’t actually state that the data supports this. " (WhichWayNow)

So what the hell does THIS mean?

"...this interpretation has been reinforced by the Company's technical work." (HUR)

?????????????????????????????????????????????????

Yup,

Trader Bernstein's been at it again.

Missdosh,

Thanks for the link!

I was interested to see the interviewer at one point ask his interviewee whether he thought Hurricane might buy Spirit. Which has got to be one of the most preposterous things I've heard in a while. If a crazy rumour such as Hurricane buying Spirit has been doing the rounds in the city, I'm not surprised the SP has fallen.

HH.

" upon successful commissioning you could then return the ESP’s to their dormant state"

Yes.

On which thought, off to bed....

HH,

"I think we are in agreement on the crux of the issue, that being that merely because the VSD is to be commissioned that does not necessarily mean that the ESP’s are to be immediately utilised."

Not just writing at the same time, but I think we're reading off the same page.

HH,

Writing at the same time! You on nightshift?

HH,

"Surely that’s like using a dimmer switch on a light, when there isn’t a bulb fitted, as that would be futile."

I'd draw a different analogy.

And then I didn't post that analogy, but wrote technical stuff, instead!

Stupid me.

Here goes.

You've bought a luxury house in Laurel Canyon, or somewhere like that. In the summertime. Fully equipped. But it being summertime, you sip your pina coladas outside in the sun, then turn in for bed, just using the usual light-switches, which are separate from the state-of-the-art dimmer system you can control from your smartphone.

Now, later, it's winter. You are having some parties, and realise you haven't even used the dimmers to enhance the 'mood'. You hit your smartphone, but somehow the app hasn't been installed, or the thingy which connects you to the dimmer function hasn't been switched on.

So you call the people who did the installation to come and walk you through the entire procedure, and at the same time check it's all working OK. Even if during the next party you forget all about the dimmer function, because the ambient lighting's fine, already....

JiffyBag,

"How come one might ask, are we only just getting round to the commissioning the ESP's 6 months later, is that par for the course?"

The ESP's themselves were no doubt 'commissioned' (ie function-tested) during recompletion with the PBLJ. But given the good natural flowrates through the FPSO after FoiL, doing so again was maybe back-heeled. It's not all 'plug and play', and if there's still work going on before the FPSO is 100%, as DiveCentre suggests, ther's no doubt a planned order in which things are done.

Heck, we still don't even know if power is being provided by the turbines from produced gas, or whether she's still burning fuel-oil. Lots of things we don't know.

Jiffy,

Thanks for reposting 'Lyell link'. Guess it was something I missed. I'll wait 'til I've been to bed (perchance to sleep & dream) and woken up again before I read it, though!

DC,

"Commissioning has yet to be completed prior to final acceptance. I assume that will include use of the ESP's"

Yes, of course there's that, as well.

HH,

I usually respect your posts, but think you've gone a bit off-tangent with your latest. Though yes, it's late at night.

"Surely that’s like using a dimmer switch on a light, when there isn’t a bulb fitted, as that would be futile."

I'd draw a different analogy.

The ESP's were no doubt used during recompletion by the PBLJ last year, just to test them.

But (to our knowledge), have not yet been turned on during EPS. So if it's a question of 'commissioning' the controls, it has to be done sometime. (See an earlier post of mine.) The timing of when it's done is neither here nor there.

Yes, Dspp's post 'point 7' does instill some doubts, once more. I'm not saying he does it deliberately, maybe he's just ultra-cautious.

But here's a hypothesis as to why they want to get the ESP's running. based on no evidence at all. But not implausible at all, I think.

We've been informed that tests have been done or are in progress, producing each well separately. We have no details whatsoever as to the results of these tests. Nevertheless, I think it can be safely assumed that during single-well 'natural' production, actual volumes produced are less than with both wells online together.

Now in the future with the EPS (talking years), there's no guarantee that problems might not occur with one or other of the wells. NOT necessarily reservoir-related. There's a lot of 'machinery' (for want of a better word) down those wells, and no guarantee that some 'breakdown' might not occur. So you want to be sure that you can continue production using just one well. should such a mishap occurs. So you want to bring an ESP online to do so.

It'll be even better once Lincoln is tied in: 'redundancy' with just two wells is OK, but only OK. Three-well redundancy es a lot better.

Or maybe (hypothesis 2), the recent 'tests' have indicated that they might want to 'bounce' production from one well to another, but I can't really dream up a reason why.

Except (hypothesis 3, following up from number 2). It could have something to do with something as mundane as pigging schedules. Shut in one well for flowline pigging, ramp up the other, meantime, just to maintain optimum output.

Why raise questions which raise doubts, when the company has already said that they'd inform if the EPS was misbehaving, and they haven't done that?

Part of Tullow's recent RNS refered to their new downsized production projections were due to unforeseen higher water-cut on one of their ('conventional') fields. It happens, and in 'conventional', once 'coning has started, it's hard to stop. In FB it's different, but anyway, the company has said our water is not from the aquifer.

People have lost money on TLW, quite possibly people also invested here. So now, mention water-cut and such people get scared. And other unscrupulous characters can easily stoke that fear, for their own personal gain.

dspp,

I would firstly, as a rider, wish to assure you that I am not casting direct apersions on your character or motives by my posts here. Nevertheless I look at everything I read on any BB with a 'hairy eyeball' in times of doubt or volatility. Hope you'll forgive me that.

You list a number of points to which I'd like to reply.

"2. If you have a problem with the data I have used then please contact HUR and the OGA as they are responsible for data quality matters."

I don't doubt the data. However I doubt your interpretation of it in your post on TLF as being a 'caution point', for reasons I already explained here. In fact your own scattergraph underlined this. You cannot take just one datapoint (out of five) above a 'curve' and interpret it as a 'sign'. Especially when the data is two months old.

"4. If you have a problem with the four hypotheses I posted (of which the last is "something I cannot think of") then please do so... So far no-one has figured out an alternative hypothesis."

My own hypothesis, for lack of any contrary evidence, is that everything's going fine out on the EPS. Does that bother you?

"5. If you have a problem with the shareprice then I am the wrong person to discuss it with. "

You're not bothered about the current SP and behaviour?

"7. That information (rumour) about ESP VSD commissioning is also relevant. One brings ESPs on line to increase drawdown. Why does one seek to increase drawdown ?"

To increase production, usually. The f***in' stuff's got to be commissioned sometime...

"8. That is a really good lyell paper, posted today, worth reading. But it doesn't actually say anything that hasn't already been chewed over (with fewer words) already on the relevant BB's."

Link, please? I'd prefer to read a Lyell paper than 95% of anything posted on these BB's. Other than the weekend O/T stuff, of course.

"9. There are many issues with HUR that lead to low shareprices. The big ones are technical (primarily reservoir) risk; project risk; funding risk; and shareholder risk. A few (%) of PIs panicking and running for the exit (or being stopped out) are very low on the scale of that very last item."

There you go again...

"10. There will be a reason HUR feel the need to come to the market with an RNS (or similar) re EPS during December, which is in advance of their previous Q1 2020 intent. Quite what it is I do not know, but I watch with interest and I hope it fills in the information gaps that ought by now to be fillable."

Me to regarding that hope. Dr T has said, seemingly, during his RGS talk, that EPS is 'ahead of schedule'. To my mind this is why an update soon instead of waiting 'til the CMD.

"11. Do not come to me for a comfort blanket."

Don't worry, I won't. And I hope nobody asks me for one, either. And they're not getting my sleeping bag!

slipanchor,

"The weather over the last week has been gales and storm-force winds up to 50knots, with 6 to 9 m wave heights. "

Hanks. Not sure if that would effect downhole ops, but suspect yes, it would do so. And certainly couldn't 'pull the stack' in such conditions.

Albi1,

"I sincerely believe what we're seeing is SP manipulation at its finest. "

Of course, by saying that, you're entering into conspiracy-theory territory. But for what it's worth, we're not the only ones on this BB to share that belief!

And have you noticed? A lot of the 'derampers' mainly post only during market opening - hours!

Whatever....... regarding the election. Although still a UK citizen, I didn't vote, and didn't even when I lived there. But also don't vote for anyone over here in France, though have the 'right' to do so.

Won't prevent me from staying up late with Sky TV on tomorrow, because of course it's of interest. All I'm really hoping is that Lord Buckethead ousts the PM in his constituency, but unfortunately don't think it'll happen.

I can't help noticing that the rig is still on location. Given the last RNS announcing the end of testing was 'after the event', and operations were already proceeding to P&A, I can now only suppose that she's still there due to weather considerations. Ten days is more than enough time to P&A a well, especially a shallow one like WW.

It's crossed my mind that the next RNS may not appear until rigmove, thus killing two birds with one stone, like the last one. Announcing the rig being demobilised and off-contract (obviously 'price sensitive' in that it involves capital outlay) and at the same time giving us an EPS update (not necessarily price-sensitive at all, 'cos Lancaster production's going to continue for a few years yet!

So 'shipwatching' and 'weatherwatching' continue to be worthwhile.

Albi 1,

"I emailed them and made them aware there were some negative rumours being spread and asked them to act to quash them. I don't interpret their lack of reply to date as negative."

Maybe it's just a coincidence that Lemonfool was offline today...

There's one thing about that site. It's often a refuge for posters who've been chucked off other BB's for some misdemeanor or other.

Dspp clearly doesn't fit that particular category, because he sometimes posts here. but boy, he must spend some time on his lemonfool posts: they're waay longer than mine! He also obviously has a good deal of technical knowledge. But now, that seems to be spilling over into giving people veiled advice about what they should do with their shares, which is something I personally don't try to do. And that's why I've now become suspicious. It's a classic move: build up peoples' confidence with long, knowledgable messages, then start adding a bit of disinformation.

The day my attention was drawn to his lengthy 'water-cut' post on lemonfool, I went to that site and read his message closely, which included some rather 'negative' stuff. Remember, just phrases like 'urging caution' can inspire doubts, likewise the suggestion that something's being 'hidden from us' so far by the company. I expressed my misgivings about his statistical analysis based simply on public-domain information, and the 'slant' he'd put on the rather small amount of data. The following day he appeared here, explaining his thinking. Up to everyone else to decide what they think of his explanations: I'm not going to start writing personal value-judgements here. And since then (though I may be wrong), I don't think we've heard a peep (pardon pun) out of him. But he's still going on great guns in the same vein over at lemonfool, still using a lot of technical language that may be well over many peoples' heads.

Some people treat their shares and trade them completely dispassionately, going by percentages and trends only. I try to, but regarding HUR I'll readily admit to being 'confirmation biased', so hold on when all the curves say I ought to sell. Now is one of those times. That may of course change if the next RNS contains bad news. I didn't consider the last on 'bad'.

I do have one or two reasons to support my thinking, in case it interests anyone. Offload shipments have continued since September, the cutoff for OGA's reporting. Admittedly the last load didn't go to Rotterdam for whatever reason, so our 'spy' there couldn't tell us the volume. And Dr T was reported to be on top form at his RGS talk, and he might not have been, if he was hiding bad news.

Jiffy,

"So, going back to AS, you have to ask yourself why has RT got 26M and AS 4K? "

How many times?
They're both oilmen. One I've met, the other I haven't, though hope to do so one day. Stobie (although his speciality is finance, is a roughneck at heart.)

One's the lord of the manor, the other's the head gardener, who doesn't get his hands dirty, but has a small army of minions pushing wheelbarrows around and wielding forks to keep his lordship's gardens nice and pretty.

He's paid a good salary for doing that, everything's OK, there are no nasty patches of nettles appearing, so why should he go and buy some extra rosebushes out of his own pocket while things are keeping the lord and lady of the house happy?

I simply cannot understand why now this criticism of the CFO has emerged here, now. Unless it's yet another 'dig' at HUR in a manner as to instill fear in shareholders' minds and think there's something going wrong.

Jiffy,

"If you own for example as many shares as RT, then all being equa,l you will be motivated/empowered to protect that value surely?"

Yes, of course. But Directors' shares are not necessarily 'issued' to them at stockmarket price. In fact, very very few of 'em are.

Unlike an individual 'Directors' Buy', which may be during a placing, or whatever. Just to show good faith and keep other shareholders' confidence.

Not to be confused with a 'company buyback', which usually means a takeover;s in the offing.

JIffy.

(Still nightshift I note, though for a change it's not because of poker, just preparing Christmas cards and being nocturnal.)

"So if I am reading you correctly, the CFO should always remain impartial, because he has his hands on the financial Tiller, he knows what financial reality is at any given point in time?"

Yes, that indeed the way I see it. Maybe an old-fashioned point of view, I must admit. But as one of the BoD, and also CFO, he is privvy to Operational stuff as well, and Stobie being Stobie, can instantly translate those into financial terms, because he's no fool. Be those positive or negative informations.

On which point, as it's in the news, who's the one person in Tullow who's been retained on the Board? The CFO.

(And btw, read NOTHING into that 'aside' comment. Hurricane ain't Tullow! I think it'll be a long time before HUR sinks into the complacency and reliance on debt that TLW's old people did!)

"So the moment that he does buy, is that a massive signal that the SP will surge North? (Most probably IMHO)"

Qui? Stobie? Reckon you've got a long time for that to happen. If ever.

"At what point therefore does he become a financial investor in a company that he manages? (That is the $64000 dollar question)"

Being under no obligation to do so, and being already nicely well-off (I think), why should he ever do so?

"Yes I know there are what are called 'Closed Periods' where Directors are not allowed to buy shares because of inside knowledge/information but AS has had ample opportunities along the lifetrack of HUR to build a position, that is what I am saying I suppose."

Yes, and has not done so. Why should he change track now?

"Is this Negative or Positive?"

Neutral.

"Is it because he is a Tight Fisted Scot? "

Could be part of it... :-))

Jiffybag,

"on the same level of risk as you and I and so they are seen to be striving for shared goals?"

No. Still don't comprehend that idea. Or rather the first bit. 'Same level of risk'. No. Or rather,it's relative. If the company were taking the same risks (as seen by themselves) as I were by investing in them, I'd be utterly foolish and crazy to do so. It'd be like giving my money to someone who I thought might put it on red at a roulette table in the hopes of 'double or quits' (which I could have done myself), and instead they plonk the whole lot on number 17. A blind bet.

The 'shared goal' is to make money. Me by buying shares, they by doing the legwork, drilling, chartering FPSO, producing some oil and selling it, etc..

Two different games.