Member Info for adoubleuk

laser,

" I came up with 526852"

I stand corrected, maybe. I use a memorised 'rule of thumb' thing where 25 metric tons = 173 bbl. What figure are you using?

bartlebobton,

"All I'll say about the offload figures ADUK ....is your whisper....of good news prior to the WD results..."

Is your second name Srooge?

As you've chosen to bring it up, the stuff I was getting before WD was rumour, and conflicting rumours at that. And I made that plain in my posts. This, I can assure you, is factual.

shedful,

"So therefore are we saying Hurricane Energy are correct based on their superior knowledge of the wells"

Imho, yes. Though personally I've never doubted that. However, being of a curious nature, especially when it comes to oilwell stuff, it not enough to know something's working OK, I also like to figure out how it's working.

Saying the company has 'superior knowledge' of the wells (as compared to the shareholders) is a huge understatement. The EPS will be generating megabytes of data every day, and there are people in the field actually watching the beast at work. It's a bit like the difference between watching a play at the theatre and listening to it on the radio, and with only one in a hundred of the actor's lines actually being broadcast! You might get a vague idea of the plot, but none of the detail. Things like RNS's barely scrape the surface of what's happening.

SG2,

"one entirely possible implication of the 'almost instantaneous' communication between 6 and 7z (with no water apparent in 6's draw) is that the volume between them is very large. "

Yes. Of course. That works! (I'm now kicking myself, not for the first time, for overlooking the obvious.) The 'heel sections' of the two wells are (I believe) a few hundred feet apart. That of 7z is also deeper than that of 6. Draw an imaginary cube or sphere which contains the two, and you've got a lot of volume, even if most of the volume is taken up by rock. Given no 'barriers', a pressure wave will travel very rapidly across the distance, but there's no reason to believe that the fluid in one area will intermingle with that in another.

Hecate,

"Hello Boys Here’s us girls with a conundrum regarding the recent RNS."

Hmm. You and your coven sound like some rather clever gals, so I'm going to be watching my words here...

"Why flow the 6 well alone for the next month and not both wells?"

Why not? Heck, it's 'Dr Trice's Train Set', he can do what he wants with it!

"Do we need to see if the 6 well can see the water being produced by the 7z"

I'm worried about this cleverness, because that's a very valid question, and DOES highlight a seeming contradiction in the reports to date. Because if the two wells are acting as a 'single one', why does 6 not see water, but 7z does? OK, I reckon most oil production may be near to the heel, maybe from a common large fracture, but 7z has intercepted 'perched water' further along that wellbore, in a 'non-interconnected' zone. or at least only marginally so.

"What is the operating pressure of the topsides,?"

The AM topsides will be 5000 psi rated, maybe 10,000. Don't know. But 5M is easily OK for these wells.

"Have we a flow control issue with 7z?"

If it's been shut in for a while, there's no reason to believe so.

"At what water cut under natural conditions does 7z stop flowing to the FPSO?"

Clever.
"A previous thread suggested the VSD was due to be commissioned, which would suggest that the ESP’s will soon be required on at least one well – End Jan?"

Minds thinking maybe alike, again. But again, might be barking up entirely the wrong tree. I greeted that news with the very simple view that getting the ESP's running is just part of final acceptance commissioning And still do. But the thing is, until ALL systems are up and 100% working, you can't really start 'having fun' with the trainset.

"On a positive note the 7z well is still capable of producing in excess of 12,000 PFLD regardless of water cut so long as the ESP’s can lift the well. Well deliverability is not an issue."

Glad to see you wrote that! Because really, that's the bottom line. In fact I was a bit disturbed to read that everything to date has been under natural flow: were those expensive ESP's installed for nothing?
"Another niggle is the phrase initial stabilisation period."

Yeah, gals, but that's a 'niggle', nothing more.

"Oh! and what do they mean by steady state production... Does this mean another 6-9ths?"

More *****y niggling. Swallow yer Prosecco and grin. The Cristal comes later.

"CMD will be interesting ."

Yup

"Regardless of the above we have come a long way and we are proud that in our small way we have invested in a company that is pushing the boundaries. If it goes tits up and we lose the lot engineering was not at fault just mother nature."

Big 10-4, honey.

DC,

"Lets hope BP are still happy buying all that H2O."

Maybe they can sell it to Australia...

Missdosh,

"She's heading for Wilhelmshaven Germany."

So she is! But we knew that already, didn't we? I was surprised when I looked at marinetraffic to see her showing Rotterdam. But it's been changed now!

Guess someone on the bridge punched the wrong buttons...

(*_*)

At last, after quite a while 'out of range' on AIS (other than satellite) we can see the SN heading for Rotterdam. Her draft is 10.5 meters, indicating a good-sized load. Due in the 24th. If our 'man on the ground' in Rotterdam is able to squirrel out what the load is, such infomation would be gratefully received, as always!

Albi1,

" Clearly it's getting to me so I'm taking a step back for a bit and will chill in the deep freeze!"

'Tis the season for chilling out. But if you have to get into a freezer to do so, make sure and take a thermos of mulled wine with you...

But it's also the season for watching favorite old movies, and I've just been doing that: an old Paul Newman / Robert Redford classic: 'The Sting'. Curiously enough, it was a comment made by our Grill-inhabiting friend EmptyVessel a few days ago which made me think of it.

Right now, there's a tanker out at Lancaster loading up with oil from the FPSO. And it makes me think. If Hurricane, their work and all it entails, the hundreds of millions spent, are all some sort of elaborate hoax, it's got to be the crime of the millenium, plus the last one as well. And should that be the case, I STILL wouldn't mind having put money into it, even though I'd have been an unwitting participant, and maybe losing out.

But also, there's such a thing as a 'reverse sting'.

The other day, I went back to look at the major shareholders list. You know, the 'top 12' who mostly hold 1% or more. And totting up the figures, I found it interesting to note that they only amount to 50% or so of the total shares in issue. (Btw, 'respected shareholder' Alex Stahel doesn't figure on that list.)

Now no doubt, people who own maybe 0.5% are rich folk, and rich folk often know each other. Also, there's nothing stopping them from working in concert. They can buy or sell at will, and the FCA won't ever look at them, especially if they're Swiss! (And especially if one of them is connected to a company seemingly in competition with Petrofac, whose troubles aren't yet over?)

So it occured to me (maybe this is just a seasonal ghost-story conspiracy theory), what might prevent such a 'consortium' working the price up and down, and also maybe 'amassing' under a lot of different names, and then when the agreed time is right, consolidating the whole lot to the benefit of a possible 'takeoveree'?

OK, maybe I'm way off the mark. But it's a fun idea to play with. And even if it's utter nonsense, the fact remains that 50% of the company is in hands about which we know essentially nothing. Except when they choose to make themselves known, of course. And what better way to do that than via 'social media' like Twitter or Facebook, both of which represent (imho, to my luddite mind) a blight on intelligent thinking and a good reason to encourage climate change so the human race goes the way of the dinosaurs sooner rather than later.

Rant over.

HeidHoncho,

"Do you seriously anticipate that they should respond to every e-mail sent from a myriad of individuals, be they investors or not, especially so to questions which they have already released a concise response to?'

And I must apologise to Albi1 here, but I agree with you. Especially if the email concerned relates to a technical subject about which they know very little?

I said I was going to bed, but that can wait a bit. To quote the late Warren Zevon, 'I'll sleep when I'm dead".

I won't expand too much on my thoughts, but here's a hint to make you guys and gals think a bit. I've gone back through the literature, including CPR's, and can't in fact find early reference to 'perched' water. Including Bach Ho. 'Stranded' water zones, yes. 'Isolated' water zones, yes. So we have to think about the new word, 'perched'. What does it mean? Generally, I think, it may be imagined as a bird perched on a branch, somewhere over one's head. Now then:

' the Company believes that only approximately 50-60 metres of each 1 kilometre wellbore is contributing to production. Both wells are currently drawing on only a small section of the reservoir. Since late October, Hurricane has been carrying out individual flow tests to establish the optimum combined flow rate from the two wells under these conditions, and to assess individual well fluid dynamics. These results will refine understanding of reservoir performance without the impact of interference from the other well.'

Yes. But what do we mean by 'production', exactly? Production of oil, the marketable stuff? Or overall fluid production?

I've got this sneaky feeling that 7z (heading in a different direction from 6), intersected a 'perched' water zone somewhere along the wellbore. And other than overall reservoir pressure, another Force in such an instance enters the picture. That invention of Sir Isaac Newton, 'Gravity'. (No, instant apology. Sir Isaac Newton did invent the catflap, but simply 'discovered' how gravity worked.)

This might explain why latest production is being mainly from Six (as we're led to believe), while full produced-water disposal facilities on the FPSO are being hurried towards completion, and production continues (under natural flow conditions at a startlingly good rate) without 'interference from the other well'.

Coming through pale fawn fluff on a rainy morning. Shoot down argument as you will, but the pieces fit together. 'Techies' only, though, please. Because there's nothing 'worrying' about it at all, if you think about it. When you're up to your ass in alligators, it can become easy to forget that the idea was to drain the swamp.

Wellwell,

"AK for clarity he tweeted and was referenced on LF."

...and that's a cast-iron reason to distrust anything the man says. Not to mention the fact that he's Swiss.

Go believe such 'gurus' if you like. No skin off my back. But I prefer looking at realities, like the Stena Natalita shuttle-tanker making good speed to Lancaster to take another crude oil offload from the Aoka Mizu this afternoon, and thence to transport the stuff to market.

Beware people trying to take your money. There are a lot of 'em around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDVdomcsjBA

Jiffybag,

"Alexander is an investor with a long and succesful history in private equity and value investing. Before founding his own investment company, he served as a Senior Executive & Partner at Bab**** & Brown, was CFO and delegate of the board of the Swiss manufacturer MEWAG AG, CFO and COO for Obtree Technologies and was an associate director at UBS Warburg. With his analytical skills, he has excellent understanding of and deep insight into the markets of this world."

But does he have any qualifications relating to understanding of Fractured Basement oil reservoirs?

Nope.

I'm just back home from the casino and logged in to see what's new. And opened the link HH sent, with a so-called 'informed' little piece about 'water coning'. And it contains the following bulletpointed phrase:

'Vertical wells exhibit a larger pressure drawdown in the wellbore vicinity than horizontal wells'.

That is total and utter bulls**t.

Before today (sorry, yesterday!) I had never heard of this Alexander Stahel person before, and will have no problem forgetting his name very quickly. Like the POTUS he appears to love influencing peoples' thinking via Twitter, which is a medium which I personally distrust, don't use, and so on.

Why should I base any of my investment decisions on the word of someone trying to blind people with so-called technical knowledge of oilwell pressure regimes when he obviously knows nothing about the subject?

The most recent Hurricane RNS in fact told us quite a lot regarding the 'water scare' being bandied about these BB's and elsewhere. And it doesn't worry me a bit. However, it takes a lot of reading between the lines to decipher. I may expand on that at a later date, but don't start clamouring for me to do so, 'cos it's been a long night, and now I'm going to bed.

wellwelll,

on phone, so can't quote from your post. but a 'serious investor' posting on lemonfool? that's an oxymoron, a contrdiction in terms. also, what professional qualifications does he have for reckoning Lancaster will 'water out'?

daltry,

"Can someone please explain what is “The upstream oil and gas sector...” quoted in the RNS CV today?"

Generally, it refers to any oilfield operations 'upstream' of the refinery. Exploration, development, oil production and shipping, pipeline operations, being examples. Refining, and subsequent distribution of the resultant products is thought of as 'downstream'.

robone,

Congratulations. I think you've just achieved a first, in my eyes, at least.

One reads all sorts of messages on this BB. Some are deliberate 'ramping'. Some 'deramping'. One sees stuff from people who think they know something about the oilfield when they obviously don't. There are messages from people which can be blatently insulting, rude, or obscene, but such contributors usually get banned.

But your latest takes the biscuit. I think it's the first time I've seen a post which could be described as downright stupid.

Longwait,

Thanks for the light entertainment! I think I'll now make a point of looking at the Udog BB once a day for a good belly-laugh.

DC,

"As you well know WW was never a candidate for tie in to the AM because of the distant."

Yes, I'm fully aware of that! Some people who may not spend so much of their time 'keeping themselves informed' may not be, though.

" My question is had they achieved the same flowrates as LC would they still have plugged and abandoned."

To which I have no 'definitive' answer, not having any 'inside information', nor pretending to be in that position. However, my gut-feeling is no, the well might have been 'suspended' instead. It must be remembered that although the LC flowrates were patently 'good', maybe it hadn't fully 'cleaned-up' either... ;-)

Hurricane / Spirit simply MUST have certain 'cutoff points' now upon which they base fast budget-related decisions. Hey! Hurricane's relinquishing Whirlwind! The whole thing's becoming less of a 'science project' as it progresses. Which can only be a good thing. Concentrating on what's going to make money, instead.

JoeSoap,

Agreed.

I'd repeat something I posted about just after the WW RNS came out.

I feel convinced that Hurricane and Spirit had already brainstormed assorted scenarios regarding the DST outcome, with 'decision routes' laid out, leading in different directions according to results. It's the old SAS 'law of the seven 'P's', followed by any oil company worthy of that description. 'Proper Planning and Preparation Prevents P*** - Poor Performance'.

The desicion to terminate the DST was obviously taken quickly, following such 'routes'. Maybe if there hadn't been assorted delays on WD, things might have been advanced timewise, and they might have had time to extend the DST, and so on. But the weather forecast wasn't good, so why d*ck about? I'm sure they've acquired the data they need, and THAT is the most important thing. P&A'ing a well is quick and cheap. Suspending less so, might not have been possible with the weather, and costs are the important thing in that stage of the game. Another new hole can always be drilled, further on up the road, and might possibly cost less than continuing with WW testing would have done...

Oilwell drilling is a bit like cash-game poker (not to be confused with tournaments). It's not all about maximising your wins, but also minimising your losses.

JoeSoap,

"Why do you choose to overlook the continually expressed guidance from HUR that these wells were to be finished as producers and long leadtime items had been ordered as part of the Phase1 Spirit deal?"

A very valid point, which some people overlook.

However (splitting hairs), should WD or WW have come in as future producers, they would have been left 'suspended', for later re-entry and recompletion as producers. As Wellwell continues to point out, there is no infrastucture yet in place near to Warwick, nor even a FID made for providing it, and this may possibly have played some part in the decision to P&A WW.

As for the lohg leadtime equipment orders placed, they'll almost certainly have been made contingent upon results, and anyway as the well are generally 'generic', those items ordered and in the build stage can almost certainly be used on other wells if it's too late for the order to be cancelled without incurring penalties.