RE: RE: Calling Yuyus16 Jan 2019 17:42
tinlode,
" too much theorising."
I too put in one of my earlier posts today that some stuff I was expressing was pure theory, with no way to prove it.
However, don't put the 'theorisers' down out of hand.
Birds of a feather tend to flock together, and I've found this particular board over the years to be fascinating, and the 'theorising' to have spilled over into 'real life'. To the extent of people who are genuinely interested in what's going on, even without necessarily having any personal technical O&G experience themselves, try to make contact off-board sometimes.
A result, for me, is to have met with some people I'd never have met otherwise, and who I consider friends, even if we've only met once. (Not to be confused with the meaningless 'virtual' Facebook idea of a 'friend'.) People with sometimes dissimilar backgrounds, work contexts, financial means, and so on, but without exception fascinating, intelligent, and with certain things in common.
That's worth the theorising in itself.
But there's also another thing not to be forgotten. Hurricane is very parsimonious with its newsflow, especially regarding technical detail. I can't help but make the comparison with SOU which is quite the opposite So the people genuinely interested in the tech side are obliged to theorise and bounce ideas off each other on BB's like this to get a rough idea of what's actually going on. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes no matter how experienced, a 'tech theoriser' can be completely wrong (I have been, many times), but often we end up with a rough concensus opinion which proves (sometimes months later, confirmed by a CPR or similar) to be correct.
This isn't simply very satisfying, but also some of our investment decisions have been driven by our theory-based gut feelings, so have been financially useful to ourselves.
The same applies sometimes to posts by our 'financial tech' peoples' theorising which crops up here, so I'd suggest not to knock it.
Of course, the thing to watch out for is the so-called 'experts-who-aren't', but who profess themselves as such. Classic examples are to be seen on the UKOG fun-board. I don't hold that share, but there are people camped out around the wellsite who post photos. I sometimes look at that BB for entertainment, and one day saw a post saying the 'new big pump' had turned up. And (despite not holding that share) I felt duty-bound to post, informing the correspondent (and other readers) that the red thing on th back of the lorry was part of a BOP stack, not a pump!
And anyway, the theorising can be sometimes fun, between the knowledgable people. During the last drilling campaign, amongst various shipwatchers observing to supply-boat movements on the ABR webcam, lively discussion broke out about what colour the scrap-metal skips were painted. It was utterly meaningless, but good lighthearted fun nevertheless.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
